Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241137
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
437 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON PER LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS THIN BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AS IT WORKS UNDER THE
RIDGE. WILL MONITOR ITS PROGRESSION BUT OVERALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON WARMING TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH WARMING ALOFT TODAY. READINGS
WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING ON THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S EXPECTED OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...AND 45-50 OVER THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREA WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL MELT AWAY.
LACK OF ANY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY APPROACHES THE AREA AND IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...NOTHING SURPRISING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE SUNRISE. CANT
EVEN RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA ON
THE PLAINS. WE DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS IN/NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE
LAYER AND GRADIENT...BUT PEAK GUSTS EVEN IN WIND PRONE AREAS
CAPPED NEAR 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD AS THE PERSISTENT
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPS COLORADO UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCES A ROUND OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW
THE AIRMASS BECOMING FAIRLY UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW THE SNOWFALL TO BECOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. SURFACE BASED
PARCELS WILL HAVE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF CAPE FROM ABOUT 2 PM THROUGH
THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS NEARLY SATURATED UP
TO 500 MB. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE AREA OF UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FOR THE TIME BEING EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND UP
TO 8 OR 9 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. AN ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY IF MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE SNOW APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO WORK
WITH. THROUGH IT ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAINING COLD AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THEN THE WEEKEND. NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
MARGINAL MODERATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. ALL IN ALL AN
EXTENDED TASTE OF LATE WINTER ACROSS THE FORECAS AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AT KDEN AND KAPA...WHILE
KBJC COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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