Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 260217
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

No tstms over the cwa at this time. Ely low lvl flow has
developed fm Denver south to the Palmer Divide with
some agitated cumulus. Thus will keep in low pops
over the Palmer Divide into Park County thru midnight
in case an isold storm or two develops after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft continues as an upper ridge is over the
desert southwest and a broad trough is over the Great Lakes area.
High surface pressure over the Great Plains keeps cool and moist
air over the plains. Low stratus covered for the forecast area for
longer than expected keeping a cap over most of the area except
south over the Palmer Divide, where cells have formed and tracked
southeast. The HRRR model did quite well today with the convective
forecast - better than the last couple of days. Some hint that
some convection will occur this evening and push slightly
northward into the metro areas. Shouldn`t be very strong or last
very long with the upper ridge continuing to push in and the loss
of the suns heat.

The upper ridge axis will push into the state Monday for warmer
and drier conditions area wide as the surface upslope flow will
weaken. Isolated showers/weak storms are still possible mainly
over the higher terrain south of I70, and perhaps over the far
eastern plains where CAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/kg
and marginal shear.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The ridge axis will shift east across Colorado Monday night and
Tuesday as an embedded wave in the flow moves over the area late
Tuesday. Expect a few more thunderstorms will move over the
plains during this time period with even the potential for a few
severe storms over the plains with better low level moisture.
Temperatures will also be warmer on Tuesday as the thermal ridge
will be over Eastern Colorado with readings well into the 90s.

Following the trof on Tuesday evening the flow will increase from
the west and northwest through the end of the week. This will open
Colorado to more weak fronts for Thursday and Friday with a
cooling trend and a bit better chance for storms. However, overall
storm coverage looks to be on the lower side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 805 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Ely winds have developed with some lower ceilings between
3500 and 4000 ft. Winds are fcst to become more sely
before 06z and then sly by 09z.  Lower ceilings should
break up in the next hour or two.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RPK


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