Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 130934
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
334 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHERN DENVER SUBURBS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREELEY AND FORT
COLLINS AREA WITH AREAS OF FROST AND SOME PATCHY FOG. FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD AKRON AND LIMON...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
STRONGER AND AREAS OF STRATUS WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT WARMER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE STRATUS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM AKRON
TO MONUMENT HILL WILL DELAY WARMUP A BIT. THOSE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE PRETTY
MUCH GONE BY NOON. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THE PLAINS LOOKS
GOOD...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD HOLD
JUST BELOW WITH DEEPER INVERSIONS AND SOME MORNING STRATUS.

DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.  SFC LOW PRES
WILL DVLP FM WRN CO INTO SERN CO AS A CDFNT MOVES INTO NERN CO SUN
EVENING.  LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE SELY OVER THE PLAINS THRU THE AFTN
HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE ELY SUN EVENING AS THE CDFNT MOVES
ACROSS.  BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW DECENT CAPES SUN AFTN INTO
EARLY SUN EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE PLAINS
HOWEVER THERE IS A CAP SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHC OF
TSTMS.  IN THE MTNS SOME MID LVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS IN
THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP IN WDLY SCT TSTMS.  AS FOR TEMPS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHILE OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WILL
ONLY HAVE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WNW AS COOL SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER NERN CO.  SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NERN CO THRU EARLY AFTN.  IF LOW
CLOUDS DO NOT BURN OFF IN THE AFTN HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABV 60
OVER MUCH OF NERN CO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE BUT LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO ADJUST LOWER.  OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

FOR TUE AN WED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DVLP NR THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.  SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE
MTNS FOR ISOLD AFTN TSTMS OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY.  MEANWHILE A
SFC LEE TROUGH WILL DVLP OVER ERN CO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPS.  HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
NERN CO WHILE ON WED READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

BY THU AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWLY.  THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THE MTNS THU AFTN WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS MOISTURE
FURTHER TO THE WEST.  FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOW POPS IN THE MTNS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE 80S OVER
NERN CO.  FOR FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WITH AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GROUND FOG TIL 14Z THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO HOLD JUST NORTH OF KDEN AND KBJC. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE 12Z-16Z AND THEN TRANSITION TO
EASTERLY UNDER 10KTS BY 18Z. THEN NORMAL AND LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS
AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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