Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 120011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

HAVE UPDATED CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS INTO THE
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TONIGHTS SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH. NO CHANGES TO PATTERN SO WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TOMORROW.  LOOKING AHEAD A
VERY STRONG 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WE WILL BE ON THE
EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL NOT TAKE A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS REMINDER OF WINTER...SO SOME COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS A BIT TO COME CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.
AS FOR CLOUDS...WE WILL VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. NAM12 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
THERE AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. WL DOVETAIL SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE GRIDS FM GOODLAND AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS.
NAM12 SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE PROFILE
AROUND 06Z SUNDAY THEN THE SHEAR ALOFT BREAKS IT DOWN. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN A BIT WEST OF THE DIVIDE...ENOUGH FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER WEST FACING SLOPES. DOWNSLOPE WILL DRY THE
AMS OUT IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS...BUT FURTHER EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND MID LEVEL INSTBY TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY...THE MDLS SHIFT
THE RIDGE EASTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

DRY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE
SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...WITH SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 080 BETWEEN 10Z-16Z...NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS SO ONLY INTRODUCED FEW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WAVE CLOUDS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WITH EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS HAS SLID THROUGH
MOST ALL AIRPORTS...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH APA AND KBJC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. EXPECT WINDS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS TO THEN BECOME
DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...AND LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS MID
MORNING ON FRIDAY.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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