Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 111647
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1047 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Quiet day across northeast Colorado. Only changes to the forecast
were to increase cloud cover over the mountains and along the
Front Range and to adjust temperatures to line up with current
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected through the day
as warming southwesterly flow aloft covers Colorado. The afternoon
hours may see some high, thin cloudiness as some high level
moisture moves over. Satellite imagery shows that this afternoon`s
high clouds will have come our way from southern California, so
they may have some smoke particulate from the recent forest fires
out there. If enough smoke has entrained into this cloud field
then it make our skies appear sort of milky in the afternoon. No
other impacts are expected. High temperatures are expected to
reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Winds will be light due to weak
pressure gradients across eastern Colorado. Mostly clear skies
and seasonal temperatures are expected to continue through the
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

WSW flow aloft will remain over the area fm Thu into Fri as an upper
level trough resides over the nwrn US. Overall, cross-sections
only show mid and high level moisture embedded in the flow so will
not mention any pcpn. As for temps, highs will be abv normal on
Thu as readings rise into the 70`s across nern CO. For Thu night a
cool fnt will move across the plains which will lower highs back
into the 60s on Fri.

For Fri night into Sat, WSW flow aloft will increase ahead of an
upper level trough.  The ECMWF shows a weak feature embedded in the
flow along with with warm air advection developing across the
plains Fri night. Thus there could be a chc of showers mainly
over the far nern corner. On Sat the upper level trough will move
across the area in the aftn and evening hours. Once again the
ECMWF is more defined with this system and has more moisture vs
the GFS which is weaker and drier. At this point tend to favor the
ECMWF solution. At the sfc, a cdfnt will move across the area by
midday, and as the upper level trough moves across with favorable
QG ascent, will see a chc of pcpn mainly fm late aftn into the
evening hours. The ECMWF actually has temps becoming cold enough
for some brief light snow across the plains Sat evening before the
pcpn ends.

On Sun, dry NWLY flow aloft will be over nrn CO and then become
more WLY on Mon with no pcpn expected either day. Temps will be
slightly blo normal on Sun and then rise fm 10 to 12 degrees on
Mon, across nern CO, as downslope warming develops. For Tue,
little change expected as dry WLY flow aloft will remain over the
area. Highs across nern CO will be in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday with some high clouds
at times. Light winds are expected today, tonight, and Thursday
at speeds less than 15 knots.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Meier



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