Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 091747
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1047 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

There are only a few clouds over the forecast area at this time.
The stronger northwesterly winds are being to develop over the
northern border plains and northeastern corner plains of the CWA.
Will make a few minor adjustments.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

There`s little indication that the strong blocking upper ridge
to our west will move much during the next 24 hours. The rather
strong n-nwly flow on the front side of this ridge will produce
another day of gusty n-nwly sfc winds on the plains, esply east
of a Wellington (Larimer Cty) to Limon (Lincoln Cty) line during
the afternoon with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts to
around 35 mph. The residence airmass will also remain quite dry
today with current dewpts on the plains in the single digits.
With not much change in dewpts during the day, and max temps
around the 60 deg mark, min RHs will range from around 8 pct near
the foothills and around 15 pct near the Nebraska border. With the
combination of gusty winds and low RHs, will issue a Red Flag
Warning from Noon to 5 PM today for the following zones: 38..
42..44..46..and 48>51. Elsewhere, the bitter cold air trapped in
North and Middle Parks will be slow to moderate today beneath a
strong sfc based inversion. However, with ample sunshine should
still see mid-afternoon temps reach the upper 30s/low 40s once
the sfc based inversion mixes out.

Clear/mostly clear skies...light breezes and low dewpts will
produce another night of single digit lows in the mtn valleys,
and seasonal readings in the teens elsewhere. Although areas
exposed to gusty downslope breezes near the foothills, expect
warmer min temps in the upper 20s/low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

There will not be much overall change in the weather picture for
Colorado through much of next week. The persistent of ridge of
high pressure over the west coast and Great Basin will remain
through next Thursday. The result for Colorado will be a moderate
northwest flow aloft but with dry conditions and warm
temperatures. Readings will be 10-20 degrees above normal across
lower elevations. There will be some day to day variations with a
some cooling on Monday and again on Wednesday as weak disturbances
skirt Colorado on the northeast fringes. At this time, the
airmass will be too dry to produce any precipitation.

Towards next weekend, long range models are advertising some
changes as a trof drops into the Great Basin. There is certainly
some timing and amplitude differences amongst the long range
players but too early to get excited yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Winds are pretty weak at DIA. Models never show them to do much
the rest of today. Normal drainage patterns are expected tonight,
but speeds will be weak.  There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Northwesterly winds have increased over some of the plains this
late morning with gusts up to 30 knots already. Relatively
humidities are well under 20% now in most areas and temperatures
are still expected to increase about 5 more degrees. Will let the
Red Flag Warning ride as critical fire danger conditions are at
hand.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ238-242-
244-246-248>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...RJK
FIRE WEATHER...Baker



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