Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 291645
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA RIGHT NOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF COLORADO. NEED TO ADJUST POPS AND CLOUD COVER BASED
ON THE CURRENT REAL MOTION OF THIS SITUATION. THERE IS SOME COOLER
AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS TO MOVE DOWN OVER US AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE A CDFNT OVER ECNTRL WY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
MIDDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FNT.  ALTHOUGH BEST
MID LVL ASCENT WILL STAY MAINLY TO THE NE OF THE AREA THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL VORTICITY WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED HOWEVER WITH MID LVL COLD POOL OVER THE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME TSTMS AS WELL. SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS WITH 2 TO
4 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

BY TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FM THE AREA WITH
PCPN GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE MOVING OVER COLORADO THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR
EXACTLY HOW MUCH DRYING IS GOING TO ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE. THE 700
MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FIELDS FROM THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HANG
ON TO VALUES ABOVE 4 G/KG THROUGH MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE IS NOT GOING TO BE ALL THAT
SUBSIDENT AFTER SATURDAY...WHILE THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND TONIGHT/S
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS GOING TO TAP INTO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEW
MEXICO...AT LEAST FOR AWHILE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE QUASI-
GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND/OR DESCENT
TO BE AROUND ZERO OVER COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING MAY THEN BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. STORMS SHOULD ONLY BE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
GOING TO BE MOIST IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE...GIVEN THE EXCEEDINGLY
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS TEXAS. THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF COLORADO AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE GFS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES FINALLY DROPPING AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT BY THEN WE WILL BE UNDER A LITTLE MORE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS DEVELOP. FOR NOW THE
FORECAST IS GOING TO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...BUT
NOTHING TO HEAVY AT ANY GIVEN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOL OFF A
LITTLE BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WINDS ARE TRYING TO GO ALL NORTHERLY AT DIA RIGHT NOW. CURRENT TAF
HAS NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT LOOKS GOOD. WILL
ADJUST THE ONSET OF -SHRA OR -TSRA UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. CEILINGS
COULD GET DOWN TO BKN030 FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE SHOWERS...THEN
CEILINGS OF BKN060 ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL NOT LIKELY GET ABOVE 0.50 INCH PER
HOUR WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FLOODING ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY.

ALL THE FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED FOR THE CWA AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISES IN RIVER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT TO ACCELERATE...WHICH
COULD INCREASE RIVER FLOWS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RJK
HYDROLOGY...RJK/TLH



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