Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 261625
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
925 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

Considerable wave clouds over northeast Colorado this morning
under the westerly flow aloft and have already updated forecast
for more clouds. Wave clouds should diminish early this afternoon
as the flow aloft shifts more southwest and look for mostly sunny
skies. Next storm system on track for snow moving into the
mountains later tonight and Sun morning. Current hilites look
good with the heaviest snow likely to come across zone 31 with
best orographics and QG forcing.

will be looking closer at some potential for high winds for Front
Range foothills beginning later Sun afternoon through Monday am
as the trof moves east and increasing downslope flow and a more
favorable shear enviornment. Certainly some potential for wind
gusts in the 50-60 mph range and possibly higher but a few factors
would work against it given strongest subsidence remains south of
foothills and continued moisture/snow up over the divide may
reduce the mountain wave amplification. More on this in afternoon
discussion.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

Today, the upper level ridge over eastern Colorado will shift to
the east with a drier southwesterly flow aloft. Some high level
cloudiness evident on satellite this morning is expected to
scatter out by late morning. otherwise dry and mild with high
temperatures around 60. Tonight, the southwesterly flow aloft over
Colorado will increase ahead of the next approaching system. will
keep the mention of snow in the mountains after midnight with
moderate mid and upper level qg ascent developing over western CO
by 12z Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

Active weather pattern setting up for Sunday and the first part
of next week. The strong trough that will move onto the southern
California coast later today will move east-northeast and track
across Colorado Sunday. In addition to this, the area will be
under the left exit region of a 150 knot jet. Expect snow to move
into the north central mountains by mid morning. Isolated
rain/snow showers should form over the Front Range and northeast
plains. Any precipitation is expected to be light east of the
mountains.

Flow aloft behind the trough turns westerly late Sunday and
northwest Sunday night. This combined with the moisture still in
place and cold air advection should lead to orographic snow over
the mountains. This is expected to continue through Monday in
advance of the next system. For east of the mountains, gusty
downslope winds should result in dry conditions.

The next wave will dive south across the Great Basin and Central
Rockies Monday night. This will reinforce the cold air advection
and keep the orographic snow going over the mountains. Flow aloft
behind this system becomes north-northwest. This will cause
orographic snow to decrease. The northerly flow will usher in even
cooler air. There will be slight chance for snow showers east of
the mountains with gusty north winds. High temperatures are only
expected to be in the 30s across northeast Colorado Tuesday.

Will issue a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains of Western
Jackson and Western Grand counties where favorable orographics
should lead to 8 to 16 inches of snow through Monday night. For
zones 33 and 34 will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for snowfall
amounts of 6 to 12 inches. Gusty winds may also cause problems at
higher exposed locations.

North-northwest flow aloft will keep below normal temperatures
over the area Wednesday. Other than light snow/flurries over the
mountains, dry conditions are expected.

An upper level trough diving south across the western states will
induce a ridge over the Central Rockies Thursday. Dry conditions
are expected across the area while it remains cool.

For Friday, Colorado will be cut off from the main storm track as
a closed low forms over the Desert southwest. Will have low pops
over the southwest zones where there is slight chance for snow
from the closed low. The better chance for precipitation will be
near the four corners. The stagnant weather pattern will likely
keep the cold air in place across northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 911 AM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

wave clouds should dissipate some this afternoon as the flow aloft
shifts Southwest. However, then later this evening and overnight
increasing high level moisture from the Southwest with incoming
system. Surface winds will shift Southeast this afternoon at local
terminals.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ033-034.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 5 AM MST Tuesday for
COZ031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Entrekin
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Entrekin



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