Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS65 KBOU 201657
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER SEEING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP...CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING...AND MONITORING THE
HRRR AND RUC TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE WE
COULD SEE SOME MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT BELIEVE
THIS WILL END ONLY IN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW SLIGHTLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AND SEEING MOISTURE MOVE UP FROM THE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NEW MX. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THIS
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF THIS AFTN. SYNTHETIC SATELLITE SUGGESTS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVENING. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS
THERE...BEST CHC WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70. ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS...IT WILL AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...BREEZY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 WITH
SSELY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTN. THE MDLS DO HINT AT SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME POTENTIAL STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT EAST
AND SOUTH OF LIMON LATE TONIGHT. WL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL DETERMINATION ON THIS BEFORE ADDRESSING IT IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY TUESDAY
INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE MILD TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVING BEEN TRENDING NORTH ON
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SO WITH THE TRACK BEING WELL NORTH OF
COLORADO...JUST EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY BE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND PASSES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING WEDNESDAY. LOWERED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO
DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM COLORADO. HIGHS WILL RUN
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICK
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME THURSDAY...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSELY
THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN BACK TO SSWLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA IN THE 21-03Z
WINDOW...WHERE KBJC WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLY TUESDAY...BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS.  SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
HINTS AT SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.