Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 182145
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
345 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Satellite pictures show a bit of convective cloudiness over the
northeast corner and southwestern corner of the CWA. Most places
over the plains have temperatures in the lower 80s F right now.
Models have northwestern flow aloft tonight and Monday. Models
show weak downward energy on the QG Omega fields tonight and
Monday. Observations to the north and model data shows another
weak front to come into the CWA this evening. There is very
limited moisture progged tonight and Monday. The precipitable
water values are in the 0.40 to 1.00 inch range, west to east
tonight and Monday. There is a bit of CAPE progged this evening
over the southwestern CWA. There is more CAPE Monday afternoon,
mostly over the mountains and foothills. There is no measurable
precipitation over the QPF fields for the CWA tonight and Monday.
Will leave pops out for now. Monday`s highs look similar to this
afternoon`s values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

An upper level ridge parked over the southwest part of the
country will produce a weak west-northwest flow aloft through
Thursday. High temperatures under this pattern will be very warm
with 90s expected across northeast Colorado through Thursday.
Precipitable water values range from around 0.60 inches on Tuesday
to around 0.80 on Thursday. Due to limited moisture and warm mid
level temperatures, chances for convection will be low. Best
chance will be Thursday on the plains where the best moisture will
be.

A cold front will push south across the area late Thursday
bringing cooler temperatures and increase moisture for Friday.
Precipitable water values increase to three quarters of an inch to
one inch. Friday. A short wave trough moving southeast across the
Northern Rockies will help trigger thunderstorms. The best chance
looks to be over the plains where the best moisture will reside.

For next weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail. At the
surface high pressure will slide southeast across the region.
This is expected to bring cool temperatures Saturday. By Sunday,
temperatures should warm closer to normal. The airmass dries out,
so do not expect thunderstorms this weekend at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Models keep an upslope component to the surface winds all night
and Monday. They still keep the drainage flow out. If we do go
with drainage at one point after 06Z tonight, it will be be weak.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...RJK


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