Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 162151
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE LEE WAVE CLOUDS DID DISSIPATE AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND TO THE WEST RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER ALL THE PLAINS
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS HAVE ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT FOR THE CWA
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE BENIGN SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED FOR THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS...MAINLY JUST SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HERE AND THERE.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED IN THE 0.30 TO 0.60 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS NO CAPE INDICATED NOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NO POPS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 1-2
C COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
OUT THROUGH DAY 7...WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS.
MODELS STILL KICK A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACRS THE 4-CORNERS REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY. LATER IN
THE DAY SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER SRN COLORADO/NRN NEW
MEXICO. DISTURBANCE APPEARS WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND STARVED FOR
MOISTURE. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SPOTTY PCPN SHIELD REACHING NO
FARTHER NORTH THAN PARK AND SUMMIT COUNTIES IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...AND THE PALMER DVD ON THE PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...SLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER VERY MILD OCTOBER
DAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. BY SUNDAY
THIS FIRST WAVE WASHES OUT AS IT PASSES OVER OKLAHOMA AS YET
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH SWINGS OVER
SRN CALIFORNIA. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS NEG TILT TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ADVECT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NWRD OVER ERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/SRN
COLORADO. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE MAINLY AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER OUR
PART OF THE STATE WHICH ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD CLIMB...ALBEIT A MODEST ONE. BY MONDAY MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE PORTION OF A BROAD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER COLORADO...AND
LIGHT WEST-SWLY FLOW SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEG F ABOVE AVERAGE.
FYI...AVG HIGH FOR DENVER THAT DAY IS 64.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND SWLY FLOW
DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPR TROUGH SLATED
TO MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHOULD SEE SKIES OVR THE FCST AREA FILLING
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW HEAT GENERATED
SHOWERS/T-SHWRS POPPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS SWRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO MODELS AND WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...SHOULD SEE PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING...ESPLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SLOW TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM OUT. COULD SEE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SHIFTS EAST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

NOT THAT CERTAIN NOW IF DIA WILL EVER GET ANY DRAINAGE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEPS EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLIES IN. EAST
WINDS ARE PROGGED ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RJK


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