Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 180243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
843 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Winds are beginning to decrease over the plains and more so in and
near the mountains. Forecast is generally on track, but winds are
coming down more slowly over the northeast plains. The organized
area of snow over the northern mountains has dissipated, but there
are still some shallow clouds and flurries over the ridges.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Strong zonal flow this evening with the upper level jet lifting
to the north and east. Downward mid and upper level qg descent
this aftn and evening allowing for the showers in the mountains
to gradually diminish overnight. showers will linger longest
along the higher west facing slopes. No mountain wave
amplification overnight...but gusty winds will linger later in
the evening. Across the northeast plains...strongest winds have
occurred over Weld County with northerly downslope off the
Cheyenne Ridge. Gusty winds will continue through the
evening...and will gradually taper off this evening. Persistent
gusty winds and low relative humidities through early this will keep the fire weather highlights in place...see
discussion below. Cooler temperatures and less wind on Tuesday.
The flow aloft will be more southwesterly ahead of an upper level
trough which will move into northwestern CO late in the day. More
rain and snow developing in the mountains...but scattered coverage
in the afternoon with no accumulations anticipated. Dry over the
northeast plains with just a slight chance of rain
showers...especially to the north of Denver.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Strong westerly flow aloft will remain over the state tomorrow
night as a short wave trough passes. Upper level jet winds are
forecast to be in the 100-120 knot range. As the weather
disturbance passes over, light snow is expected in the mountains
and the northern plains will have a chance of rain showers as
well. snowfall accumulations up to a few inches will be possible,
primarily north of the i-70 corridor. rainfall amounts on the
plains will be less than a quarter of an inch.

On Wednesday...shower activity will taper off as upper level
ridging builds over the Great Basin and a strong surface high
builds over the northern Rockies. Cold air advection out of
Wyoming will keep gusty winds going over the northeast Colorado
plains. As the winds taper off Wednesday night, the cool and dry
airmass in place over the region will allow morning lows on
Thursday to probably fall into the upper 20s.

Dry and gradually warmer weather are then expected through the end
of the week and over the weekend as the western U.S. upper ridge
dominates the weather picture. Pressure gradients should be
relaxed, so less wind should result.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR through Tuesday. Variable wind speeds around the Denver area
should continue to decrease and become southeast later tonight.
Some clouds will develop later tonight but ceilings are expected
to remain above 6000 feet.


Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Cooler temperatures and higher dew points have produced much
higher humidities this evening, and winds have begun to decrease,
so the Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. Strong winds over the
Front Range and northeast corner of Colorado will gradually
diminish this evening.




LONG TERM...Dankers
FIRE WEATHER...Gimmestad is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.