Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 111524
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
924 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

...NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR TODAYS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

WARMER AND DRIER AIR COMING OVER TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER BRUSHING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROBABLY LESS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.
DRYING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. NOT AS MUCH
WIND TO WORK WITH...BUT MIXING WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP TODAY...MORE
LIKE A SUMMER DAY...SO WESTERLY BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP IN MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/HUMIDITY MAY APPROACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND FROM SOUTH PARK
INTO THE FOOTHILLS SW OF DENVER...BUT WITH MARGINAL WEATHER AND
FUELS IN THE FOOTHILLS STILL MOIST OR JUST NOW DRYING OUT WE
SHOULD NOT NEED A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT TODAY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE RECORD OF 80 IN
DENVER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

MODELS SHOW LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA SATURDAY
...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
TROUGH USHERS IN A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH TO GET INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UPWARD QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. IT IS FAIRLY STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT AND UPSLOPE MOVING IN SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND IS PRETTY STRONG SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS
PRETTY DEEP WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING IT UP TO ABOUT 600 MB BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME IN THE UPPER LEVELS
ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP
MOISTURE IS PROGGED ON ALL THE MODELS FOR ALL THE CWA. THERE IS
SOME LIMITED CAPE PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA LATE DAY
SATURDAY...AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS ALSO A BIT WEST OF
THE DIVIDE FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THEY
INDICATED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN...THEN SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL A BIT PROGGED OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT TOO. FOR POPS...THESE LATEST MODELS DIFFER LITTLE
FROM WHAT CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE SO WILL ALTER LITTLE. THERE IS
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY...DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND PRETTY DEEP UPSLOPE. THERE WILL BE RAIN AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT IT LOOKS TO BE
COLD ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR JUST SNOW. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS THE THE GFS...BUT IF MODELS
PAN OUT...HIGHLIGHTS WOULD BE LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS FOR SURE. FOR TEMPERATURES... SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C
COOLER THAN TODAY`S. SUNDAY`S READINGS COME DOWN SOME 14-24 C FROM
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS
HAVE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY...THEN UPPER RIDGING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE GFS
HAS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH...MAYBE...BUT THE ECMWF HAS A
WEAKENING UPPER CLOSED LOW. WILL LOWER CLOUD COVER AND POPS A
LITTLE FROM CURRENT GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THI AM THOUGH THERE IS A
BIT OF TREND TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. WELL
MIXED AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WESTERLIES
MIXING DOWN AFTER 20Z WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE.

|&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



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