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000
FXUS65 KBOU 121006
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
406 AM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LESS SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...AIRMASS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY SO WILL KEEP THEM DRY
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE ADVERTISED TO WARM ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY SO WE SHOULD BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MOST OF
THE PLAINS...WITH 50S AND 60S MOUNTAINS AND 60S TO MID 70S
FOOTHILLS.

LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONVECTION. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH FURTHER WARMING OF THE AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE ASSOCIATED WITH
LEE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING THIS TIME
AROUND AS MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING WARM RIDGING OVER THE STATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS FEATURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD FEATURE GRADUAL
WARMING AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE CAPPING ANY SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS. THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS DUE TO THE
PASSING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ON THE PLAINS WILL
ALSO BE STARTING OUT A LITTLE MORE STABLE BECAUSE OF COOLING WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE QUITE LIGHT WITH EACH
AFTERNOONS ROUND OF SHOWERS...SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS COULD ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BEGIN ACCELERATING
RUNOFF IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RECENT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...STREAM CHANNELS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CAPACITY...
AND NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10-12K FT AGL WILL BREAK UP
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS BUBBLE UP
AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CEILING AROUND
10K FT AGL SPREADING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS 21Z-02Z.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST APPROACH GATES SHOULD STILL BE AFFECTED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS 18Z-03Z. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 10-12KTS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY 16Z-
18Z...AND THEN BACK TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS BY 02Z-05Z TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH