Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300256
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

LAST GASP SHOWERS AGAIN THIS EVENING...BUT THEY HAVE FADED EXCEPT
FOR THE LINE OF CONVECTION ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKING SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHERN PARK AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. STRONGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS...COULD BRING
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO THE SW CORNER OF PARK COUNTY THE NEXT 2
HOURS...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER WEST AND DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE
CLOUDS FROM THE PEAK OF CONVECTION ARE SPREADING OVER THE
AREA...BUT THESE SHOULD ALSO START TO DECAY BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
KEPT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PARK COUNTY...REPRESENTING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO. A SIMILAR SITUATION IS FORECAST
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO NOT BRING THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ANY FURTHER NORTH OVER COLORADO...SO PARK COUNTY AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE THE ONLY SPOTS TO SEE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWEST
INTO NEVADA HELPING TO CUT OFF A GREAT DEAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY WITH A 700 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH A LEE TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL SOME
MOISTURE UP INTO CENTRAL COLORADO DESPITE THE STRONG RIDGE. THIS
WILL HELP TO BRING SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE CHANGES LITTLE MINUS THE WEAK
700 MB LOW MOVING SOUTH HELPING TO BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO NE COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FAR NE CORNER WITH MODEL CAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ON
SUNDAY MOISTURE SLIPS BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRY OUT THE PLAINS WHILE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DEEPENS OVER CO AND AZ. A 700
MB HIGH OVER TX WILL HELP TO BRING IN MODEST MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY A LOW DROPS SOUTH
WITH A LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING THEM DRY WHILE
STORMS CONTINUE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP INTO
THE MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE PLAINS WHILE ONLY GETTING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING LESS WIND ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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