Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010946
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEVADA WITH A
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WEAK PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY. THE AIRMASS
HAS MOISTENED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY UP TO 1 INCH
ON THE PLAINS...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY WITH VALUES OF 1.1 TO 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. THETA-E
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE AS LOW LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SO HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEAST ONTO THE NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING
THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL NOT ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE MET.
HAVE REFINED POPS A BIT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FARTHER EAST.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT CAPES APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SO MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND STRONGER STORMS TODAY. STORMS WILL
BE MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
ANY FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO BURN SCARS. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAIN IN 20 TO 30
MINUTES.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AND FRONTAL
PUSH CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL SETTLE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE FAIRLY STABLE INITIALLY...BUT IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB OVER 2000 J/KG AFTER 21Z WITH GOOD
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AS A RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY...IT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR PROFILE
MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND THE LOWER LEVELS A BIT DRIER WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE HOTTER WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ANOTHER SURGE IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WL BE MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE OVERALL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO THE MONSOON WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO
COLORADO. A STRONGER SURGE IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE TSTM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 21Z-03Z TODAY AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
WITH STORMS AS THEY WILL PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL. STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35-40
KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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