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000
FXUS65 KBOU 200920 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT
EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE AIRMASS TODAY. FIRST OFF IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE A TENTH OR TWO TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD...SO
THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BE STORM FREE TODAY. WHAT STORMS FORM
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

EXPECT STORMS TO END BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THERE WILL BE MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.
THIS MAY SLOW COOLING SOME TONIGHT. FACTOR IN THE WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING
INTO THE 60S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. A FEW SPOTS MAY NOT FALL
BELOW 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES ON MON
WITH WSW FLOW MID LVL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED SO WILL ONLY MENTION SOME LOW POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE. AFTN HIGHS WILL CONTINUE HOT WITH
READINGS IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR TUE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO.
A WK BNDRY IS STILL FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS HOWEVER 850-700
MB TEMPS BARELY CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS AFTN HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S OVER NERN CO. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE BEHIND THE BNDRY OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS TUE EVENING. IN THE MTNS
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE.

BY WED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE. THUS MAY SEE A
BETTER CHC OF AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS FM THE MTNS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AS WELL ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABV NORMAL. FOR THU THERE STILL SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN/EVENING TSTMS.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 90S ACROSS
NERN CO.

FOR FRI AND SAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE
NWLY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK FNTS TO MOVE INTO NERN CO AND
COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS FOR TSTM CHANCES THE GFS SHOWS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FM FRI INTO SAT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER NERN CO DUE TO INFLUX OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE BEHIND THE WK FNTS. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP POPS ON THE
LOW SIDE FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

NORMAL SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN TURN EASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE
DENVER AIRPORTS...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ONE MOVING OVER AN
AIRPORT. MAY SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST AFTER 22Z DUE TO
OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. EXPECT THE STORMS TODAY TO
PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. NO HEAVY RAIN FALL IS
EXPECTED.

ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NO HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER
HYDROLOGY...MEIER/RPK