Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 260141
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
741 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AROUND...AND NONE OF IT IS
SIGNIFICANT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
LARIMER COUNTY RIGHT NOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN WELD COUNTY. THERE IS
LITTLE TO CHANGE ON THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

DEWPOINTS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
LOWER 60S THAT WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG
A DRYLINE. CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT AT
THE BORDER TO NE AND KS THAT COULD SPIN OFF SOME STRONG STORMS
THAT WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF CO. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE STORMS. OVER THE FRONT RANGE INSTABILITY
IS LACKING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TOMORROW WILL BE MORE ACTIVE WITH THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. MODELS INDICATE A SELY LOW LEVEL WIND THAT WILL HELP TO
BRING INCREASED DEWPOINTS INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE PW VALUES BACK TO JUST BELOW
1 INCH. INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW LATE
AFTERNOON OVER DENVER. THE HIGHEST CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST
OF THE AIRPORT WHERE THE BEST BULK SHEAR RESIDES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FOR THE PLAINS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER 90S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING A BIT EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOLLOWING THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER TROF AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AS READINGS
RETURN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER WITH ANY STORMS REMAINING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST INTO THE
4 CORNERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. WITH THIS FLOW...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM BOU CWA.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD KICK IN BY MID TO LATE EVENING AT DIA. THERE
WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJK
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RJK



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