Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

000
FXUS65 KBOU 270953
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 5 AM WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO NEBRASKA
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
AND STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS.

WEAK AND TEMPORARY RIDGING ALOFT FOR THIS EVENING BEFORE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AGAIN FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. SOME WEAK QG ASCENT MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS FOR AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

THU AND THU NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 12Z
THU IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ BY 00Z FRI AND INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 12Z FRI. WEAK QG ASCENT WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THU...WITH A DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION THU. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
AFTN. IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
INITIALLY...9500-10000 FT...SO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE
AFTN WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A DEEPER SELY FLOW DEVELOPING
TO AROUND 600 MB. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ZONES 34 AND THE NORTH PART OF ZONE 37
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SNOW INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE FOOTHILLS. ON FRIDAY...MDT QG
ASCENT PROGGED FOR THE CWA...AS THE TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CNTRL CO BY 00Z SAT. BEST PERIOD OF UPSLOPE/QG ASCENT WILL BE
LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG PERIOD BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. THE
UPSLOPE BREAKS DOWN FRI NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SWRN
NB/NWRN KS BY 12Z SAT. THE MDLS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 00Z
SAT...WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES CROPPING UP FRI NIGHT. THE NAM12 MDL
GENERATES UP TO 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. PREFER
THE SNOWFALL/RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED BY THE NAM/ECMWF AT THIS
TIME...AS THE GFS APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH UP TO 30 INCHES IN
COMPARISON. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT.
THE MDLS DO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OUT ON THE PLAINS
AS WELL...6-12 INCHES FM THE NAM12 AND WITH ANYWHERE FM 2-40
INCHES FM THE GFS. HARD TO BUY THESE AMOUNTS SO LATE IN THE
MONTH...SO FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION ALTOGETHER AT
THIS TIME. THE NAM12 SOLUTION MORE REASONABLE BUT STILL LOOKS TOO
HIGH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD KICK
OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AT SOME
POINT...BUT THIS IS STILL PRIMARILY THE FOURTH/FIFTH PERIODS AT
THIS POINT. THE PALMER DIVIDE SOUTH OF DENVER...MAY ALSO NEED SOME
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT AT SOME POINT AS WELL. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AS
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. SAT AFTN/SAT
NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE WITH ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE
EAST WHILE ANOTHER STARTS TO DROP INTO SRN NV. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER CO ON SUN...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NWRN AZ...THIS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH INTO UT BY 12Z MONDAY. NOT REALLY SURE WHERE THIS WILL
END UP AT THIS POINT...SO BASICALLY CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON
TUE...LESS PCPN COVERAGE BUT STILL UNSETTLED WITH AFTN/EVNG
SHOWERS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATUS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND LOCAL
TERMINALS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN UPCOMING TAF.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.