Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 040334
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
834 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. LATEST STLT
SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED IN GRAND COUNTY THIS EVENING AND
ALONG WEST FACING ASPECTS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS THIS EVENING...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS SO NOT AS
COLD TEMPERATURE WISE THERE BUT THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL MAKE
UP FOR IT. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 93
AND C470. THE CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT MOST OF THIS MOST OF THIS SO
ANY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING
SKIES...A DRY ATMOSPHERE...AND LIGHT WINDS IN MOST AREAS WILL
ALLOW THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT. THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE ZERO TO -12F DEGREE RANGE WHILE SEVERAL SPOTS
IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROP TO 20 BELOW OR COLDER. WIND
SPEEDS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE NEARLY CALM SO NO WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE BELOW ZERO READINGS WILL BE IN/NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WHERE A DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS. A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER AND REVERSE SHEAR
PROFILE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE
ENHANCEMENT. FLOW IS QUITE MARGINAL HOWEVER WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS
OF CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IMPINGING ON THE FRONT RANGE...SO PEAK
GUSTS EVEN IN THE MOST WIND PRONE LOCATIONS LIKELY LIMITED TO
45-55 MPH. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

FOR THURSDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS BY MID DAY AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN BATCH OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL HOLD OFF TIL TOMORROW NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW IN/NEXT TO THE FRONT RANGE WILL BE DECREASING WITH
THE LOSS OF THE MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS COLORADO OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
AFFECTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE
TROUGH IS GOING TO MOVE OVER THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE...MOVING
OVER A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MOUNTAIN
AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A 10 TO 15 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON THE PLAINS...LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR MAY REMAIN DRY
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD THEN RE-FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
LATER TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARD KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
WARMER AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTH...WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS WILL SEE THE BULK OF WARMING ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 807 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 8-13 KNOTS AT KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. AT KBJC...MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY WEST
WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS 03Z-15Z. SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW EXPECTED WITH THESE GUSTS BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. AFTER 18Z...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA BUT HOLD UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER


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