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000
FXUS65 KBOU 132220 CCA
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
420 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.SHORT TERM...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
PASS TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE CWFA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AZ...SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA TNGT SO WL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE BREAKS DOWN. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON FRIDAY BUT THE GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEW MX BY 00Z SAT...BUT STILL LOOKS TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS...ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DENVER
IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST TUESDAYS...THOUGH IT LOOKS WEAKER. SO THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ON THE PLAINS AWAY FROM
DOWNSLOPE...NORTH AND EAST OF GREELEY AND SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
WHILE THE PLAINS MAY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT PROBABLY MOSTLY
SNOW. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE NEAR
50 IN THE MORNING BUT THEN DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATER IN THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME THREAT OF HIGH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NORTHERLY JET
CORE PASSES OVER US. NICE WIND PROFILE WITH THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT
NOT REAL STRONG WARMING FOR AN INVERSION ALOFT. AT THIS POINT
SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR A WAVE BUT NOT HIGH WINDS...PERHAPS GUST
IN THE 50-75 MPH RANGE ON THE EAST SLOPES FOR A FEW HOURS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVER. NOT LIKELY TO GET VERY FAR EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS WARM AND DRY AND POSSIBLY BREEZY UNDER THE
RIDGE. RAISED HIGHS UP TO AROUND 70 ON THE PLAINS.

BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE NEXT TROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. STILL
SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE STRENGTH...BUT WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MOUNTAIN POPS AND SHOWED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
A LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. AGAIN
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THE PLAINS OR SNOW AT
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES...AND PROBABLY ANOTHER QUICK SYSTEM
AS WELL. ECMWF HAS STRONGER RIDGING BEHIND THIS...MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR TEMPERATURES IS FINE FOR NOW WITH THE STRONG WARMING WAITING
UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT NW-NLY SFC WINDS THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. SHOULD SEE SFC
WINDS TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE...ON OR AFTER 06Z...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO DRAINAGE 10-12Z FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CLOUDS/VSBYS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...COOPER