National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 052237
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
337 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SPREAD SOME MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS CFWA. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED STRATUS HAD MOVED
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE DENVER AREA. THERE WERE REPORTS
OF A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES UNDER THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT DID NOT
LAST LONG. MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...WON`T
TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES. MID LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES A
BIT THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CFWA. WILL WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. BUT THIS ASCENT IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. OVERNIGHT...THIS ASCENT MOVES
AWAY FROM CFWA...THOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING
CLOSE TO THIS MORNING`S READINGS. STILL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW ZERO. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO BE THE COLDEST SPOTS. ON
FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED. MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING
ENOUGH LIFT TO THE MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS KEEP EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD
DECK IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
AROUND DURING THE MORNING AND WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE TO AREAS IN
AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT INVERSIONS MAY KEEP
READINGS FROM WARMING ABOVE 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NOW A BIT COLDER THAN EARLIER RUNS. DID SHAVE
A FEW DEGREES OFF THE CURRENT MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR COLORADO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY AND
DECREASES A TAD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THIS WAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. THAT HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT LATE CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
INTO THE EVENING. FOR MOISTURE...IT INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
...AND INCREASES OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE STAYS
PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. IT IS FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT DOES NOT LOOK AS SUBSTANTIAL AS IT DID ON YESTERDAY`S
12Z MODELS RUNS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE NOTHING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE
ARE SMALL AMOUNTS INDICATED FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALL THE PERIODS.
THERE ARE EVEN SMALLER AMOUNTS NOTED FOR THE PLAINS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS SOME OVER
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THESE 12Z MODELS RUNS SHOW LESS
OF A STORM THAN YESTERDAY`S. WILL NOT CHANGE GFE POPS VERY MUCH
...WITH "LIKELY"S IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND "CHANCE"S OUT ON THE
PLAINS. SUNDAY`S ADVERTISED COLDER AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK AS COLD
AS IT DID EITHER. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C
WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S. SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C COLDER THAN
SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY...THEN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPOSED TO PUSH ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
NORTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED. THE GFS HAS
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF. WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY. WE`LL SEE ABOUT
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS HELD OFF MOVING INTO KDEN AS THE NORTHWEST
WINDS WERE KEEPING IT EAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT AT KAPA.
WEAK MESOCYCLONE KEEPING THIS LOWER CLOUDS EAST OF THE AREA
AIRPORTS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT THE STRATUS MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS WELD COUNTY. STILL THINKING THE STRATUS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AIRPORTS BY 00Z. CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET TO
PREVAIL. WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 01Z
AND 05Z. MODELS SHOW THE STRATUS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z
BUT LOWER MOISTURE BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. WILL KEEP CEILINGS
AROUND 3000 FEET...IMPROVING TO AROUND 6000 FEET AGL BY 18Z. WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...THEN EASTERLY AFTER 15Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L