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000
FXUS65 KBOU 222153
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY INTO EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY. ACTIVITY RATHER LIMITED AT THIS
TIME AND MAINLY HIGH BASED. NEAREST LIGHTNING CURRENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING
AS WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...APPEARS THE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
COVERAGE FOR EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR ALONG WITH
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO END BY MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANY
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WYOMING WITH AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. MODELS SHOW WEAK 700 MB
LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH...WITH SOME WEAK LIFT NOTED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH THAT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 11000 FEET AGL WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER PASSES. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE...NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. ACROSS PLAINS...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AS 700 MB FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHWEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 KTS ALONG THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A FORT MORGAN TO LIMON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH...WITH READINGS
EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND MID DAY...THEN SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS FRONT
MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS OVER SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. GREEN UP HAS BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47 FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN DOWNWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HELP STABILIZE AND DRY OUT THE AIRMASS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE MID TEENS AND WINDS ARE 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN IMPROVED SINCE
LAST NIGHT. THE GEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING STEADY WITH ITS SOLUTION
BUT CONTINUES TO LAG ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. IT SEEMED AS THOUGH
THE GFS WAS STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE WEAKER AND OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION OF THE EC...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS SEEMED TO GO OPPOSITE
WITH THEIR TRENDS WITH BEING SLIGHTLY DEEPER. BUT EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOLUTIONS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL SEEMS TO
FAR NORTH FOR ANY SORT OF UPSLOPE TO DEVELOP. WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE WIND THEN PRECIPITATION...WITH
MORE WIND SOUTH OF I70 AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
I70. ALL THREE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. KEPT GENERAL FORECAST FROM LAST
PACKAGE EXCEPT DECREASED POPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR
WITH NO UPSLOPE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS...THOUGH A BIT
MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA. HIGH BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA AIRPORTS. TREAT OF THESE SHOWERS
AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH ANY CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 14 KTS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MAY BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 21Z AS SURFACE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 7000 FEET AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY HUMIDITY READINGS
OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREEN UP HAS
BEEN LIMITED IN THAT AREA...SO EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE MET. WILL HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 47
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. HUMIDITY READINGS TO INCREASE AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...D-L
FIRE WEATHER...D-L