Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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973
FXUS65 KBOU 071051
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
351 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A NNW-SSE ORIENTED JET DROPPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
POST FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHILE HELPING TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENT CAUSING THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE MODERATED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER
EAST...THE PLAINS WERE UNDER AN INVERSION YESTERDAY...BUT NOW WITH
THE MIXING FROM THE FRONT AND THE STRONG WINDS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING 50 KTS ABOUT 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WITH SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND...DON`T BELIEVE ENOUGH
MIXING WILL OCCUR TO BRING THOSE WINDS DOWN...HOWEVER EXPECT
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE CRUSTED
OVER....BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS WITH LOOSER SNOW THAT CAN BE
BLOWN AROUND. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO
YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR COLDER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN MAY HELP KEEP
THEM FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING. UNTIL THEN...
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES MAINLY OVER THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME THEIR WARMING TREND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PUSHING BACK TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BY TUESDAY...WE
SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE DENVER METRO AREA AND THEN
LOWER TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO AID WARMING. A HEALTHY SNOWPACK ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR THERE...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS PUSHING TO 50F OR HIGHER BY WEDNESDAY AS
SNOWMELT AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER. THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER APPEARS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...LOOKS LIKE MORE
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. A TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE
ANTICYCLONING INTO THE METRO AREA. CURRENT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A BOUNDARY OF THE ANTICYCLONING
WINDS JUST EAST OF KDEN. BELIEVE THE STRONGER WEST WINDS WILL HOLD
THAT BOUNDARY FROM PROGRESSING ANY FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING.
WINDS AT KDEN/KAPA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS PUSH IN
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. KBJC MAY STAY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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