Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290939
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS...UPPER 70S/80S FOOTHILLS...AND UPPER 60S/70S MOUNTAINS.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH FURTHER WARMING ALOFT AND A
DRIER AIRMASS. ONLY CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE
MOUNTAINS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 INTO PARK COUNTY WHERE THERE
IS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE.

SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL INCREASE ON THE PLAINS INCREASING THE FIRE
DANGER...BUT BOTH HUMIDITIES AND WIND SPEEDS FALL SHORT OF RED
FLAG CRITERIA.

MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED. SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE
POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST WITH A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A SERIES OF SMALL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE DOMINANT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING. PW VALUES INCREASE ON THE PLAINS TO AROUND 1 INCH WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE. THERE IS MINIMAL CAPE BUT SOME CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT INTO THE MID 80S FOR
MONDAY AND UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW
CONTINUING WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS
SOME LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS BUT THE EC REMAINS DRY. WILL MAINTAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AS MONSOONAL FLOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRIER FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND 90
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE DROP INTO SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SOME SMOKE IN THE AREA MAY SUFFICIENTLY REDUCE SLANT VISIBILITY
FOR INSTRUMENT APPROACHES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE 6-10SM RANGE.  IMPROVED MIXING AND
DISPERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY 18Z-20Z WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-22 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF DENVER AND SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT
THE SOUTHWEST APPROACH GATES OVER PARK/SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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