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768
FXUS65 KBOU 190209
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
809 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Outflow bndry fm convection over the far nern plains
this aftn has moved westward and was intersecting
another bndry that had moved northeast of the urban
corridor. So far not much has occurred along this
intersection with not much cumulus development. Hi res data
has been showing there is some potential for redevelopment
across ern Elbert...Washington and Lincoln counties the next few
hours so will keep in a chc of storms in these areas. Othwerwise
it appears the threat of storms has pretty much ended elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Moisture under an upper ridge along with a weak shortwave
continues to spark thunderstorms over the high terrain this
afternoon. A convergence line stretching from Limon northeast to
the state corner will be a focus line for storms through the rest
of the afternoon. Better CAPE and shear over the northeast corner
will put a threat of stronger storms. Shear values are not
impressive, this environment would allow for brief heavy rain,
strong outflow winds and some hail to be possible. There has been
some indication of some convective activity to continue into late
evening over the east central plains, with light flow aloft. With
this being shown over several runs of the HRRR, will stretch a
mention of slight chance PoPs through midnight.

Not much of a change to the weather pattern for Wednesday,
although the mountains will have a slight increase in moisture as
monsoonal moisture begins to push into the area. Highs may be a
few degrees warmer especially over the plains. Southerly winds
over the plains will be increasing in the afternoon in response to
a deepening low over eastern Wyoming. Thunderstorms tomorrow will
again mainly produce brief heavy rain and gusty outflow winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

The upper level pattern is expected to undergo subtle changes over
the next 48 hours which will allow a strong surge of monsoonal
moisture into the state. The center of the upper ridge will shift
eastward, allowing the flow across Colorado to switch from
westerly to south and southwesterly. Specific humidity and layer
precipitable water values across the state are expected to surge.
Daytime heating and any embedded short waves rotating around the
upper ridge will then produce afternoon and evening shower
activity that will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
Winds aloft will remain light, and slow moving thunderstorms will
be the main thing to look out for. Thursday and Friday will be the
two days with the biggest threat of heavy rainfall. A model
sounding at Denver from the NAM for Thursday evening shows a
precipitable water value of 1.45 inches, indicative of how moist
the airmass is going to be Thursday afternoon. No highlights
necessary at this time, but after thunderstorm activity today and
again tomorrow, this situation may change.

Evolution of the upper air pattern over the weekend will play the
key role in modulating the ongoing flash flood threat. The
forecast will keep mentioning afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Temperatures are going to continue to be around seasonal normals
for the end of July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 758 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017

SSW winds will continue this evening but may switch to more sse
direction by 06z if hi res data is correct.  Thus will trend taf
towards this scenario.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...RPK