


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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359 FXUS65 KBOU 292335 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 535 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected across the eastern plains this evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. - Monday will be cool with storms focused over the southern foothills and South Park. - Scattered thunderstorms and normal temperatures are expected for the Fourth of July. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Water vapor satellite shows a weak shortwave trough over Wyoming with weak westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This flow and trough are providing just enough lift and shear to allow for severe convection in our area. The main reason for the strong to severe storms in our area is due to moderate to strong instability with surface CAPE values over 2,000 j/kg across the entire I-25 corridor and eastern plains with some areas above 3,000 j/kg across the far eastern plains. This will support strong updrafts and with just enough shear, a few storms may produce large hail greater than an inch. It appears the may threat will end up being severe wind gusts as strong storms will eventually merge into an MCS once they get east of a line from Greeley to DIA. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible especially near Fort Morgan, Akron, and Sterling. The assumption is that the storms this afternoon and evening will "work over" the environment such that strong storms are not expected overnight tonight. Some slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast for the eastern plains since some high resolution model data shows a few showers and storms. Having said that, the QPF was largely taken out of the forecast for tonight. On Monday, it appears there will be just enough low level moisture to form stratus clouds in the morning hours across a good portion of the I-25 corridor and eastern plains. With a strong cap above the low level cool and moist air, it will take a very long time for the boundary layer to mix out. Therefore, highs will likely stay in the upper 70s across the I-25 corridor and plains. Furthermore, it will likely be too stable anywhere from downtown Denver and to the north and east for any showers and storms to form so PoPs and QPF were lowered or taken out. Where it will storm is over the southern foothills and Park County as the best upslope flow and instability will be located there. Some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall. The center of a ridge aloft will be over Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will warm up each day and there is good consensus in the ensemble data that highs will reach the mid 90s across the plains on Wednesday. SPC added an area of marginal risk for severe weather across the far northeast corner of Colorado on Tuesday as 60+ degree dew points will create moderate instability. Tropical moisture will be brought up to Colorado on Thursday and Friday due to southerly flow. A trough will be roughly over Arizona on Thursday and over eastern Colorado on Friday. The exact timing of this trough will be very important to determine whether Thursday will see widespread storms of if Friday will have widespread storms. At this moment, models seem split roughly 50/50 so please stayed tuned to future forecast updates to get a better idea of weather for the holiday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/... Issued at 535 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Chances for thunderstorms at the Denver area airports are low for the rest of this evening and tonight, less than 20 percent. Outflow winds bringing a wind shift remain possible through 02-03Z. East to southeast winds are expected to prevail once convection shifts east of the Denver area. By 07-09Z, a push of northerly winds are expected to bring in a stratus deck with ceilings around 1,000-2,000 feet by 10-12Z. These low clouds linger through the morning hours and slowly rise. Skies are expected to stay BKN with ceilings of 3000 to 6000 feet through Monday afternoon (00Z Tuesday). Given the cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and stable conditions Monday, the Denver area is not expected to see storms with only a slight chance at outflow winds at APA and BJC. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...Meier