Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 221615
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1015 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SOME NICE WAVE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING...THIS
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING DRY WESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST OF SHOWERS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY LOOKS GOOD. TOOK OUT
PLAINS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT LEFT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
FORECAST...WE WILL SEE...BUT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH DOWNSLOPING/
DRYING FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS
TIME. THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE WEAK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH
INCH. THE SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. APPEARS THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING PRODUCED BY THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH EARLY TO MID
MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. DUE TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW...LITTLE IS ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SURVIVE MOVING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ONTO THE FRONT RANGE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING. IF ANYTHING SURVIVES CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS...IT WILL BE
WEAK.

AIRMASS BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...WHAT
PRECIPITATION FALL WILL BE LIGHT. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW LOWER 70S CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THIS IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AIRMASS DRIES QUICKLY
TONIGHT. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY MID EVENING. LOWS WILL BE
COOLER WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD FM THE SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE AREA FM THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY WX
PTRN WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON THU WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER NERN CO WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRI.
RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 80 ON FRI SO IT COULD BE TIED OR BKN.

FOR SAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH INCREASING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WEAK FNT BACKDOORING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT
SHOW THIS FEATURE. THUS THE ECMWF SHOWS TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ON SAT WHILE THE GFS HAS READINGS SIMILAR TO FRI. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE FM THE WSW AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.  SOME MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE
MTNS BY AFTN SO WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.  OVER THE REST
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE DRY.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
ABV NORMAL TEMPS OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE ECMWF SHOWS FAVORABLE MID LVL ASCENT LATE SUN NIGHT THRU
MON AFTN.  THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THERE SHOULD BE A
CHC OF PCPN.  AS FOR HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 50S OVER
NERN CO.

BY MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE RGN WITH PCPN CHANCES ENDING.  ON TUE
DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN.  AFTN HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

WINDS AT AREA AIRPORTS ARE TRANSITIONING THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST...THEN WILL GO TO DOWNSLOPE AROUND
SUNSET TONIGHT. WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT IF SHOWERS
DEVELOP...EXPECT THEM TO BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...MEIER



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