National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 220324
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
924 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN WELD COUNTY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEARING FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. UPDATED FOR MORE CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY LOWER LOWS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT IS FINALLY ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
IN AREAS OF MORE SIGNIFICANT THINNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
FOOTHILLS...AND PALMER DIVIDE. SO FAR...MOSTLY CUMULUS...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THESE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STORMS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AREA. WILL CARRY LOW POPS IN THESE
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING. WHERE AIRMASS IS SUFFICIENTLY
MIXED...LOOK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH NEAR ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF
ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL COOLING...HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 90S
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
REMAINED CAPPED ON THE PLAINS DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
ALOFT AND EVER SO SLIGHT COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OVER THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY AREA...ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VERY STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE U.S. WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH WEAK WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF COLORADO. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO HAVE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT WHICH WILL FUEL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 700 MB SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT THOSE
DAYS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD...SO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASES EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. ALL IN ALL...THE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. NO CHANGES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD