


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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566 FXUS65 KBOU 141738 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today with highs in the mid 90s across the plains. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations. - Afternoon showers/thunderstorms to continue most days for the upcoming week. Best chance of rain across the plains comes Wednesday. - High temperatures to linger in the 90s across the plains through mid-week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A few thunderstorms have started to form over the higher terrain this afternoon. The question remains whether these will make their way onto the lower elevations as we head into the evening. There has been lot`s of back-and-forth between some of the hi-res guidance since this morning, with the HRRR having a line of convection developing this evening, moving across the plains through late tonight, with most other CAMs having nothing push off the terrain at all. The latest run (19Z) seems to have backed off any storms making their way anywhere east of I-25, but with the persistent signal through this morning for high-based showers and storms to pass over the urban corridor and our TAF sites, producing near 50 mph outflows, PoPs were increased to include a slight chance for this scenario to unfold. Currently, we are seeing ordinary thunderstorms over the higher elevations and current ACARS soundings still show a smidge of CIN remains in place with NNW flow aloft keeping the storms anchored to the terrain. With winds aloft expected to make a more westerly transition this evening, there is some potential that these storms indeed try to push eastward, where the SPC mesoanalysis shows 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place, which would be sufficient to sustain them. So despite the HRRR now backing off, still thinking the slight chance is warranted through tonight, with gusty outflows being the main concern. As previously mentioned, flow aloft becomes more zonal for Monday as the upper-level ridge over the southwest flattens out. Temperatures will remain hot to start the week, with high`s nearing 100F over portions of the plains. A more active pattern will be in place through the period, with scattered to numerous afternoon mountain showers and storms expected each afternoon. We could see a few spill onto the plains Monday and Tuesday, but more widespread moisture isn`t expected until Wednesday. With forecast soundings showing DCAPE values surpassing 1500 J/kg on Monday and Tuesday, there is plenty of potential for gusty outflows and dry microbursts to develop, but at this time, the severe threat looks to remain limited. Cooler temperatures are still on track for Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave and associated cold front slide across the forecast area. This will be the main driver for the widespread moisture making it across the lower elevations. By Friday, temperatures return to the 90s and remain there through the long term, with afternoon showers and storms possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Southeasterly winds will prevail the next few hours before thunderstorms move into the Denver area. Wind direction, then will likely be determined by outflow direction. Gusts to 25-35 knots will be likely, with a 20 percent chance for wind gusts to around 45 knots. Storms move off to the east early evening (01-02Z). Southeast to southerly winds to prevail overnight. Some enhanced drainage winds will be possible around 06Z with gusts to 25 knots. For Tuesday, northwest winds are expected to develop 16-18Z and then continue into the afternoon. The airmass will be drier with fewer showers and storms. Though there`s about 30 percent at a high based showers bringing gusty outflow winds during the afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bonner AVIATION...Meier