Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 232121
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. ANOTHER STORM IS
PRESENTLY MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD.
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN HELD TO LESS THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NO
FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED YET...BUT WITH SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE. THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE IS OVERWHELMING THE BUOYANCY OF
THE AIRMASS...SO TORNADIC STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED. WILL CLEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH WITH ISSUANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. REST OF WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SINCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES OFF...THE MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK
FLOW WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-DEVELOP...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WRAPS INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

COOLER UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF QPF FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
URBAN CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY LITTLE. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED PAST THE AIRPORT...BUT NEW
CELLS ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF DOUGLAS COUNTY. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM
HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST TRACK...AND MAY MISS KDEN. WILL
STILL MENTION A FEW MORE HOURS OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER AREA
AIRPORTS. OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OF THIS MORING IS POSSIBLE WITH FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST PART OF THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER DENVER...LEADING TO THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ALONG NICELY AND ONLY
PRODUCING ABOUT ONE-THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE
DENVER METRO AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS CONTINUES...SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE.

THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE ACROSS WELD COUNTY WITH MINOR IMPACTS. THESE FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS AS THE RIVERS WILL BE SLOW
TO RECEDE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ042-044>046-
048>051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.