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000
FXUS65 KBOU 152100
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WAVE NOW
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL DECREASE AS WELL SO STRONG
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY EASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...LATEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DELAY
THE CLEARING OVER THE PLAINS GIVEN THE SECOND WAVE OF MOISTURE.

ON SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CLEAR IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD
BE REACHING NEAR 60F AGAIN...40S AND 50S FOOTHILLS...AND 30S/40S
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME SHOWERS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE
WARM...WINDY AND DRY. THE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE TREND
CONTINUES...ONE MAY BE NECESSARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVER NWRN CO BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL QG
ASCENT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN CO MONDAY NIGHT.  SOUNDINGS AND
SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS GENERATE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. AS A RESULT...WL GO WITH SLGT CHC
POPS THERE. SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT BEST. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY BUT STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. A SECONDARY TROUGH MAY BRUSH ACROSS NERN CO LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF BUT THIS
FEATURE THERE ACCORDING TO THE GFS SO WL KEEP IT DRY. THE TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS OKAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
A LITTLE COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 04Z-06Z...WIND SPEEDS UNDER 12
KTS EXPECTED. THEN SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
AFTER 07Z-10Z AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. KAPA COULD STILL SEE
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BUT OTHERWISE VISUAL
LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&


.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH