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000
FXUS65 KBOU 111704
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...WEAK SURGE OVERNIGHT BROUGHT COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF FOG. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWING THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. SOME STATUS AND FOG DID DEVELOP NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER ACROSS NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHWEST WELD
COUNTY...WEB CAMS INDICATED FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITIES. THIS SMALL
AREA ALSO DISSIPATING. WITH MIXING OF DRIER AIR...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE
THIS NICELY. REST OF FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. FLOW ALOFT HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM GJT TO DEN IS GRADUALLY INCREASING. WITH
MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...WILL BE SEEING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON...WON`T BE
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS CROSS SECTIONS ONLY INDICATING CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE COOLER...MOST AREAS ACROSS PLAINS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THERE MAY BE STILL BE
LINGERING MOISTURE TO HINDER WARMUP.

.AVIATION...THREAT OF ANY STRATUS HAS ENDED AS DRIER AIR SPREADS
ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE AND MAINLY
SOUTHERLY THOUGH A BIT NORTHEAST AT KBJC. TREND OF CURRENT TAFS
LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST. KBJC MAY BE
TRICKY AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR OCCASIONAL WESTERLY
WINDS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO THE LIGHT EASTERLIES. WINDS TO
TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE DURING THE EVENING. VFR TO CONTINUE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR HAS BEEN MOVING INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...AT LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BRINGING IN
COOLER AND MOIST AIR FROM NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS
COMBINATION HAS BROUGHT AN END TO SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WHILE
A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER SOME OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING AS MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT
EVAPORATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THE REST OF THE DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES.
CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO THE SURGE OF
COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL...MOST AREAS ON THE
PLAINS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN...WITH AREAS
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS MAKING IT TO THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ON THU WITH CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOWING A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE
AROUND 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S OVER THE PLAINS WITH LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND DENVER. ON
FRI A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SHOWN LATE IN THE AFTN THRU THE EVENING
HOURS. OROGRAPHICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MTNS. OVER NERN CO A COOL FNT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID AFTN
WITH SOME UPSLOPE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING OVER THE PLAINS AS THE WK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. AS FOR HIGHS WIL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR THE WEEKEND INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO.
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY MENTION A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS BOTH DAYS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AS WELL.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE
DRY BOTH DAYS.  AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S OVER NERN CO ON SAT.  BY SUN SHOULD SEE DECENT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING SO WILL RAISE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
CROSS-SECTIONS NOT SHOWING MUCH MOISTURE FOR NOW.  THUS WILL KEEP
FCST DRY.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BOTH
DAYS.  HIGHS ON MON OVER NERN CO WILL BE ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

AVIATION...WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER
THE NORTHEAT COLORADO PLAINS THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS STRETCHES FROM KFNL AND KGXY TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MORGAN COUNTY. IF THIS DECK OF STRATUS MAKES
IT TO KDEN...IT MAY PRODUCE BKN-OVC CEILINGS BETWEEN 700 AND 1300
FEET AGL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN
COMES UP WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

HYDROLOGY...THE INCREASED FLOWS ON CLEAR CREEK THROUGH GOLDEN LAST
EVENING HAVE RETURNED TO NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING OCCURRED ON BIKE
PATHS AND PARKS IN GOLDEN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WERE
REPORTED. WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY BY 6 AM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L