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000
FXUS65 KBOU 250029
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DENVER METRO AREA. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
LIKELY END THE THREAT FOR STORMS THIS EVENING FROM DENVER AND
NORTH. MAY STILL SEE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE NEXT HOUR RIGHT BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. WILL STILL SEE STORMS JUST SOUTH OF DENVER...AHEAD
OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS PLENTY
OF BOUNDARIES OVER THE PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
RIGHT AROUND 1.00 INCH OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. THE ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CIN IS GONE OVER THE PLAINS NOW. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE TO FLATTEN DOWN A BIT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WESTERLY AT 30-50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH HELPS BRING A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. IT
IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE
DRAINAGE TONIGHT...THEN NORTH TO EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR MOISTURE
...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PLUME LOOKS TO STAY OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE SATELLITE PICTURES. AGAIN...
THE MODELS HAVE 0.70 TO 1.30 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE CAPE PROGS SHOW IT GOING AWAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON....THERE IS 300-1200 J/KG FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE LIMITED MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST NOTHING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS A BIT MORE THAN THIS
EVENING`S...BUT NOTHING GREAT. SO FOR POPS...WITH THE INITIAL
BATCH MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE PLAINS AND NOT MUCH
UPSTREAM...WILL GO WITH LIMITED CHANCES THIS EVENING. NOTHING
AFTER LATE EVENING UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY 20-30%S AGAIN. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE WEAK
FRONT ON FRIDAY SEEMS TO COOL OFF MAYBE 1-2 C DOWN FROM THIS
AFTERNOON`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS. ON SATURDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS
COLORADO WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS PLAINS LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ACROSS
PLAINS...SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
CHANCE FOR STORMS. FOR MONDAY... THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL QG ASCENT SHOULD
GENERATE A DECENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
ACROSS PLAINS...LOW LEVEL COOLING CONTINUES WHICH SHOULD KEEP CAP
IN PLACE LIMITING THE STORM POTENTIAL. BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID
LEVEL ASCENT TO OFFSET THIS CAP...SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. HIGHS
ACROSS PLAINS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT PERSISTENT CAP MAY AGAIN LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

FOR THE LATER DAYS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TUESDAY AS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. DECENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE. STILL
DECENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THREAT FOR STORMS HAS LIKELY ENDED FOR THE DENVER AREA. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR. STORMS
WILL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF DENVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...MEIER