Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 231015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
415 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The large upper level ridge will amplify across Colorado through
tonight in response to a deep upper low dropping south toward the
Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a weak cold front was pushing
across the plains early this morning. Cooler high pressure will
continue to build southward through the day and will result in
cooler but still above normal temperatures across the plains.
Over the mountains, see little change in high temperatures with
continued warm southwest flow aloft. There will be a few cirrus
clouds locally enhanced along the Front Range through tonight.
Good radiational cooling expected with light winds, but lows
tonight will still be a few degrees above normals.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Abundant upper level ridging will dominate the bulk of Colorado
weather this week. Early in the week, the ridge axis will be
sliding eastward ahead of a weakening trough ejecting across the
desert southwest. By Tuesday afternoon, mountain areas could be
seeing rain or possibly thunderstorms. Any snow that falls will be
above 10 or 11 thousand feet. Shower activity in the mountains
could continue much of Wednesday night. The plains should remain
dry as the upper disturbance rapidly moves out of the state
Wednesday morning. The upper ridge will quickly re-develop
through Wednesday and Thursday with a return of temperatures some
10 to 20 degrees above normal. The next upper disturbance is
forecast by the ECMWF Friday night. The GFS does not share this
solution, so we`ll have to wait and see what develops. The eastern
Pacific is going to be active this week, which would tend to
produce more ridging over the Rocky Mountain West. This seems to
be what the GFS is forecasting. The forecast will mention a slight
chance of showers for Friday Night and Saturday from the mountains
out onto the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light and variable
winds this morning will shift more easterly this afternoon up to
about 10 knots as high pressure builds over the Central and
Northern Plains. Winds should then transition back to normal
drainage patterns tonight, but will have to watch possible weak
Denver cyclone which could bring variable winds 00Z-06Z.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.