Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240246
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
846 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WARM ADVECTION...AND SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...SO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THERE. RECORD BREAKING
WARMTH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. NW FLOW
WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS A WAVE CLOUD WILL SETUP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE THE STRONG WESTERLIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MIX DOWN THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP
TO 25 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS. THE STRONG THERMAL PROFILE
DOES NOT EXTEND PAST THE FOOTHILLS SO THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
LIGHTER.

STILL LOOKING LIKE MANY LOCATIONS TOMORROW COULD SEE RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR
DENVER STANDS AT 80 DEGREES AND WE COULD SURPASS THAT BY A FEW
DEGREES...GIVEN THE WAVE CLOUD DOES NOT STAY IN PLACE TOO FAR
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER SUMMER LIKE FALL DAY FOR
DENVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COULD BE 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR DENVER. ON SUNDAY...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE...EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGINS INCREASING. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.

EACH OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING AN
OPEN TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION THAT SPREADS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. MOST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT A TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
COOLING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. BEYOND
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RE-DEVELOPS AND
COLORADO SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 837 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-14K FT AND SCT-BKN NEAR 20K FT
AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



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