Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 291436
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
836 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE SHALLOW HUMIDITY AND DUST THAT BLEW IN LATE LAST NIGHT BEHIND
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT HAS COLLECTED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THE HAZE WAS CONCENTRATED MOST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DENVER
NORTH TO AROUND LONGMONT. HENCE THE VERY HAZY SUNSHINE. FARTHER
OUT ON THE PLAINS...NWLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE GUSTY AT THE
MOMENT WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35KT RANGE ACRS CNTRL AND ERN
WELD...MORGAN...WASHINGTON...PHILLIPS AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES. THE
BACK EDGE TO THIS BAND OF STRONG/GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS
CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE WYOMING BORDER. OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO...SHOULD SEE THE HAZE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS FLUSHING OUT
WITH 10-20KT N-NELY WINDS. AFTER WHICH TIME...WINDS WITH THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ACRS THE NENR PLAINS SHOULD STEADILY SUBSIDE AS THEY
VEER AROUND TO A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE STILL IN FOR A COOLER DAY BUT WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IT MAY NOT FEEL THAT MUCH COOLER.


.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE CLOUD
BAND THAT WAS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT IS DISSIPATING AND
THE SHOWERS AROUND SUMMIT COUNTY APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED. WITH DRY
AIR AND STABILITY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE A NEARLY CLEAR
DAY. MAIN BURST OF WIND HAS GONE BY...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
KEEP NORTH WINDS GOING ON THE PLAINS MOST OF THE DAY...SLACKENING
AND TURNING MORE EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED FORECAST LOWS
A LITTLE TONIGHT WITH DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES FROM THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY THEN OVER COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN
THE MOUNTAINS FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM ON MONDAY
AFTN. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT WL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FRONT RANGE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS SOLUTION SO WL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
COLORADO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRY ON FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
COOL. BY SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60. THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. THE COOLER/WETTER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10KT
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-18KTS EAST OF I-25. THEN AROUND
17Z...SHOULD SEE SPEEDS DIMINISHING AS WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY/DRAINAGE WIND BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT DENVER AREA TERMINALS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BAKER



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