Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 220943
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
343 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Much of northern Colorado remains under a broad upper trof early
this morning with latest impulse now moving into northwest
Colorado. This coupled with upper jet over central colorado is
creating some enhanced banded precip along eastern portions of the
Front Range urban corridor. Most of the precip on the plains is
rain but some snow over higher terrain with snow level around
6000-6500 feet. With this heavier band of precip could see some
brief mix of rain and snow over the denver area but not expecting
any accumulations with this. Will make some adjustments to focus
on the area of precip over the urban corridor and adjacent eastern
sections early this morning with likely pops.

The back of the trof will slide east of the area this afternoon
with increasing subsident flow with building high pressure over
Colorado tonight. Showers will diminish this afternoon with a
gradual clearing of the skies by later this afternoon and clearing
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A shortwave ridge over eastern Colorado Sunday morning will
transition east through the day to allow flow aloft to increase
out of the southwest, as a weak shortwave trough pushes into the
state later that night. A surface low will develop and deepen
over the plains to increase southerly flow over the plains, as
well as help temperatures warm with increasing westerly flow aloft
and warm advection. Above average temperatures are expected
across the area Sunday, with readings in the mid 70s over the
plains. Light moisture from the approaching shortwave trough will
push into the mountains Sunday evening, with a cold front to drop
over the forecast area after midnight, bringing strong winds but
not much in the way of colder temperatures. The eastern slopes of
the Front Range Mountains and foothills will likely see gusts in
the 50 to 60 mph range.

Monday will see a brief break in the precipitation over the
mountains as ridging and drier air moves overhead. Then Monday
evening through the rest of the week will experience faster zonal
flow pushing into the area while several upper disturbances bring
unsettled and cooler conditions to the area. Snow will increase
over the mountains Monday evening into Tuesday to possibly affect
travel. Looking further ahead, models are differing on details,
however it looks like the area will have the highest potential for
widespread precipitation Wednesday night through Friday morning,
and possibly into the weekend as well, if the ECMWF verifies. The
EC and GEM both want to separate the trough pattern into two
distinct troughs, while the GFS wants to keep it one lingering
deeper trough. Expect temperatures to be cooler than average for
the latter half of the week, however differences in models make
confidence in any snow level forecast to be low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

KDEN/KBJC will continue to see RA/DZ and mix of IFR/MVFR
conditions through about 16z as upper level disturbance moves
across the area. Could see a bit of mix of rain/snow but no
accumulations expected. Stratus deck will slowly decrease during
the afternoon hours with VFR returning around the mid afternoon
hours. Surface winds will remain from the southeast before
returning to drainage later this evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Kriederman
AVIATION...Entrekin


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