Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 011758
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1158 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME FOR TIMING. WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND STARTING TO SPREAD
INTO THE DENVER AREA. GENERALLY WEAK BUT IT WILL HAVE A BIT MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON THE PLAINS. THIS AREA SHOULD MOVE EAST
EVENTUALLY ORGANIZED BY OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING
THE DENVER AREA A LITTLE DRIER BEHIND IT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SECOND ATTEMPT AT CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH. SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE BUT A
LITTLE LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR RESULTS WITH
MAINLY WEAK CONVECTION WITH SOME STRONG PULSES MAINLY ON THE
LEADING ACTIVITY AS IT GETS INTO THE BETTER MOISTURE EAST OF
STERLING AND AKRON. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
OUT THERE. MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN
DECENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LVLS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY MID AFTN.  CAPES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE
PLAINS SO ANY SVR ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER ISOLD.  HIGHS THIS AFTN
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER THE DRYING AND WARMING OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY
TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TO FUEL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PRODUCE DRYING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AND WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN KANSAS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THINGS BEGIN CHANGING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH ON THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR. ALOFT...A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COMING TOGETHER
AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
COLORADO AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA FORMS AND THEN HAS NOWHERE TO GO
BECAUSE OF A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE UPPER
HIGH OVER TEXAS. NO FIRE WEATHER WORRIES FOR AS LONG AS THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS NOW LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND DENVER WILL BE IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN
THREATS. MOST OF THIS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

STARTING TO SEE SOME RISES IN THE RIVERS FROM SNOWMELT. THE POUDRE
AND THE PLATTE IN THE GREELEY AREA NEVER WENT MUCH BELOW FLOOD
STAGE...ONLY EXPECTING RISES OF A FEW INCHES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT THIS WILL CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING IN THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS. OTHER RIVERS WILL BE HIGH AND COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR
IMPACTS...BUT EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...GIMMESTAD/HUSE



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