Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251709
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1109 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE SUNNY
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING NICELY. THE MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING AT MID LEVELS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LACK OF CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM INSOLATION.

WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
APPROACHING WESTERN U.S. UPPER JET WILL BE GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE STATE TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER COLORADO TODAY WITH A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD BE A CLOUDLESS DAYTIME WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS
AGAIN 80 DEGREES AT DENVER AND READINGS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THAT 80 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS
CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 40KT AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS LATER TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TNT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
ABOUT 50 KTS OF CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 650 MB WITH A MINIMUM
OF 15 KT AROUND 450 MB. NOT THE BEST MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPING
WIND PATTERN BUT STILL QUITE GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO
50 MPH IN THE UPPER FOOTHILLS IN THE NORMAL WINDY SPOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE STATE
DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHED IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED
TO TODAY. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THIS EFFECT FIRST AND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. THIS WILL HELP HUMIDITY
NOT BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SO RIGHT NOW NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED AS HUMIDITY READINGS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY PRETTY GUSTY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS NEARING. MOISTURE...WHICH SEEMS
MEAGER WITH BETTER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER NORTH...IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. A BETTER PUSH LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO NEAR 8000 FEET...EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 6000.

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS
THIS OCCURS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WHILE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS SEEMS QUITE DRY. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY...BUT KEPT A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SLIGHT COOLING BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMTH
MOVES IN FRIDAY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. LATER THIS EVENING WILL SEE THE WINDS RETURN TO TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE PATTERNS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS



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