Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 051754
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1154 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ONLY WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS
THE BAND OF CIRRUS OVER DENVER THAT HAS HELD THE WARMING BACK
SLIGHTLY. THIS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SO IN THE END IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

WITH NORTHERLY STEERING WINDS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS CONVERGENCE AND THE RIDGES SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD. COULD SEE SOME WEAK HIGH BASED CONVECTION ON OUTFLOWS
OR JUST FROM THE HEAT IN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AT THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTING THIS TO JUST PRODUCE VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

LATEST INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS FROM GPS SHOW SOME
DRYING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH VALUES DOWN ABOUT 0.20 INCH
IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS STILL A DECENT
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN COLORADO...ALTHOUGH
THIS TOO SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY AS BEST MOISTURE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS SPEED
MAX WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY INTO NORTHERN UTAH. THERE IS ALSO WEAK
SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD KEEP THE PLAINS
CAPPED. HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE GIVEN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE AND WEAKER CAP.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPS...WE WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A GOOD 3-4 DEGREES WARMING FROM
YESTERDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH A FEW OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS APPROACHING 100F.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE MONSOON SEASON IS UPON US. A STRONG AND
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW THE WEAK FLOW
PATTERN OVER COLORADO AND THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO. DAYTIME HEATING EACH
DAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL THEN MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WE WILL
HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT INITIALLY ANY THREAT OF FLOODING PROBLEMS IS
LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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