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000
FXUS65 KBOU 112138
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...HOT AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. WILL CONTINUE THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM...THEN WINDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING AND HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ABLE
TO HOLD IN PLACE SO FAR WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND WEAKENING
CAP PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THAT AREA TIL MID/LATE EVENING WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO HELP BREAK CAP. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF DRY LEVEL
ENTRAINING INTO THE UPDRAFT BUT COULDNT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR LATER TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS/DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT READINGS WILL STILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME COOLING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH MORE
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE SAME TIME...WE BEGIN WARMING
ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY SO MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE ABOUT
4-8 DEGREES COOLING GREATEST OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. CANT RULE
OUT A COUPLE LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK COUNTY
WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST. PLAINS CAP WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO SLIGHT
LOW LEVEL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE AXIS SLIDES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES MOVES INTO WESTERN UNITED STATES.
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE
EVENING IN AREA OF LOCAL UPSLOPE AND CONVERGENCE. CAPES
MINIMAL...SO STORMS WILL BE WEAK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT
RAINFALL. SKIES TO CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT AS AIRMASS STABILIZES. ON
THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GRADIENT ALOFT INCREASES WHICH COULD
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. SURFACE WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH MOVING
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS FLOW TO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO COLORADO. THERE IS ALSO SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
QG ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN AND NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS. CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER...NAM INDICATING AROUND 3500 J/KG WHILE GFS SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG. BOTH MODELS INDICATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CIN. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A DECENT CAP OVER THAT AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CIN AND CAP SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH OF STORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A FEW DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY`S READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO MONTANA AND IDAHO. GRADIENT APPEARS TO
WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM
COLORADO. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ACROSS PLAINS...MODELS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE...A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. AIRMASS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WEAK FRONT AND SLIGHT COOLER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS COLORADO. CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR 90
DEGREES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THEY
SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY 23Z-01Z AS WEAK WAVE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO NORMAL
DRAINAGE WINDS BY 04Z-07Z. ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR DIURNAL
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY 17Z-19Z WITH SPEEDS OF 10-17
KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214>216-246-
247.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH