Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230211
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
811 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Quick moving upper level feature embedded in nnw flow is moving
across the area. Most of the shower activity has moved south of
a Denver to Akron line across the plains. Over the higher terrain
a band of snow is moving across the cntrl mtns but should
gradually decrease in the next few hours.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Still a complex wind pattern, but cold air is surging across
southeast Wyoming closing in on the premature wind shift. Showers
are developing nicely in the convergence along the northern
border. Confidence in shower coverage is going up, so we will
increase the PoPs a bit more for late afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise the forecast is in pretty good shape. Models are
showing a bit more cold advection tonight. However, it also looks
like a high stratus deck will persist over the plains into at
least Tuesday morning. Guidance lows are a little cooler than the
previous forecast, and that looks good. For Tuesday there will be
some warming aloft, though there is still a little cool unstable
layer at low levels. This could cause the clouds over the plains
to persist, or redevelop into shallow convective clouds during the
afternoon. The low chance of showers on the plains still looks
appropriate.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Tuesday night, a dry and subsident northerly flow aloft will
be over the region. Weak pressure gradient at the surface with no
pops, diurnal winds with clear skies overnight. On Wednesday, the
upper level ridge will move over Colorado by midday. The flow
aloft will transition fm northerly in the morning to a weak
westerly mid level flow in the afternoon. It will be the warmest
and driest day of the week with mid level subsidence in place
coupled with minimal moisture. Wednesday night after 06z, some
weak to moderate mid level qg ascent associated with two jet maxes
will develop. One fm the southwest and another rounding the base
of an approaching trough from the northwest. Showers will develop
over northwest CO after 06z Wednesday night then spread into
northeast CO Thursday morning. A cold front will push across the
cwa Thursday afternoon with a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Friday and Friday
night, the pattern remains unsettled. A moderate west to
southwesterly flow aloft will be over northeast CO in the morning
with some lingering pcpn in the mountains. The next system will
split from an upper low that will be moving across southern
provinces of Canada Wednesday night through Friday. This system
will be over southern ID by midday Friday. The trough is then
progged to slowly shift east/southeast across southern WY and CO.
Weak to moderate qg ascent will be over the cwa Friday and Friday
night, weak to neutral lift Saturday then subsidence Saturday
night. This system is not very well organized. The best chance of
precipitation appears to be Friday and Friday night, with just
some residual showers over the weekend. By Monday of next week, a
ridge of high pressure is progged to bring drier and warmer
conditions to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Main pcpn band has moved south of DIA however once last batch of
ligher showers could affect the airport thru 03z. Ceilings have
risen to the 6000-8000 ft range and latest data suggest these may
sct out in the next few hours with just a bkn mid lvl deck thru
08z or so. Nly winds have really decreased as well and may go
light nwly in the next few hours. By 10Z they may become more wly.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...RPK



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