Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 232215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
315 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Upper level elongated trough will continue to move eastward
through Friday with the jet staying to the south. A surface low
over SW Wyoming combined with a surface trough extending over the
eastern portions of the state will bring increasing northerly
winds to the plains. Northerly flow will bring sustained moisture
and help to keep light snow showers over the plains through Friday
morning...especially over the northern counties bordering
Wyoming. In the mountains snowfall intensity will diminish but
expect some accumulation on west facing slopes and some orographic
snow on the divide through tomorrow. Snowfall amounts on the
plains have ranged from 1 inch up to 7 over the northern counties
and foothills. Expect another 1-2 inches through the evening with
locally higher amounts under more intense bands this afternoon.
These bands could drop up to an inch of snow in an hour with
reduced visibility. Temperatures will remain below freezing with
highs today only reaching into the lower 30s dropping into the
teens overnight. This will cause slick and snow laden roads to
become icy and hazardous for morning commuters. Temperatures will
continue to be cooler with highs only in the mid to upper 20s for

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Models continue to be in reasonably good agreement at least
through the weekend. Upper low over Nebraska is progged to slowly
track east gradually losing its grip on northeast Colorado. Weak
orographics and ongoing cold air advection producing modest post
trough instability should continue to generate light snowfall
across the high country and give the nearby plains a slight chance
of snow through Saturday morning. Through the day...a drier and
more stable upstream flow should bring an end to most snowfall in
most areas by Saturday afternoon as temperatures aloft begin to
warm with a shift to a more zonal flow. This strengthening flow is
expected to produce stg and gusty wly winds on the mtn range and
east slopes of the front Range on Saturday. Speeds should remain
below high wind criteria. Even with less cloud cover, weekend
temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms.

Next week, models show another vigorous shortwave trough carving
out over the Great Basin and reaching Colorado by Sunday
morning.Some of the models show light precip developing in areas
west of the Continental Divide by afternoon generated by a moist
and unstable west-southwest flow. Sunday night into Monday the NAM
and GFS models show this trough moving across the state with most
of its energy and moisture passing to the south of the CWA Sunday
evening. While the European and Canadian models show a flat upper
ridge passing over the state at the same time. For now will lean
towards the wetter of the NAM and GFS and keep a chance of snow in
the high country, but with a drop off in snowfall towards Monday

For the first half of next week...models show Colorado and the
western CONUS under the influence of a broad upper level trough
and a colder Canadian airmass. Snow chances look better for the
fcst region, starting with the high country Monday and Tuesday
and for the entire CWA late Tuesday and Wednesday. However, at
this time significant snowfall is not anticipated.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

IFR conditions continue with increasing moisture from a surge from
the north. Light snow will continue through 10z Friday with
ceilings ranging from 005 to 012 through the evening. Light snow
will be accompanied by freezing fog and mist that will help to
bring visiblities below a mile at times. Some more intense snow
bands will be possible between 3 and 5 pm that could drop a quick
inch over DEN then APA between 4 and 6 pm. Winds will continue to
from the NNE through the period with speeds ranging from 8 to 12
mph. Conditions will slowly start to improve by tomorrow afternoon
with VFR conditions expected.


Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ042-

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Friday for COZ031-033.



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