Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010208
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
808 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. LOOKS LIKE A
HIGH POP EVENT ON THE FAR PLAINS BUT OVERALL SHOWER INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN ONE HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FURTHER WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS GRAND...JACKSON AND LARIMER COUNTIES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER JET. EXPECT CONTINUED SLOW DIMINISHMENT
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. COLORADO STILL UNDER THE PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SO WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE POTENTIALLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE FRONT RANGE. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME UPDRAFTS GOING FOR A
WHILE. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THE FRONT RANGE CITIES AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE WYOMING
BORDER...SO I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
EVENING...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ON THE PLAINS. I ADDED A BIT MORE BACK TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER ZONES IN CASE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN NW
COLORADO TRACKS THAT WAY.

WITH LIFT AND HEATING DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD AS
WELL...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER COULD
CONTINUE. EXPECT A FAIRLY ROUTINE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON
TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE SUN AND NOT MUCH DRYING YET.
STILL PRETTY LOW CAPES ON THE PLAINS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT. COULD BE BETTER
MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BORDER FOR A BIT STRONGER STORMS...OR THIS
COULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF US.

ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND WARMED LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE STATE. A
LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MDLS
GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA BUT MOST OF IT IS CONFINED TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY. IT WILL BE DRIER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. OVERALL JUST
ISOLD COVERAGE FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MDLS TRY TO DEVELOP A
DEEPER FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO BY SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT...COVERAGE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SATURDAY...COOLER SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
TERMINALS BUT SHOWERS APPEAR DONE FOR THE NIGHT. THERE WAS AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF TERMINALS BUT APPEARS TO BE
WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES DIA. MAY STILL SOME LIGHT NE WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR AT KDEN. GRADUALLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE LESS SHOWER/WIND ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN


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