Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 112223
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
423 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. NO HEADLINES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN AND DO OCCUR YEAR ROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY MAINLY DRIZZLE AND RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT STARTING TO SEE SNOW SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THE COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE SUMMIT AND SNOW
EXPECTED INTO CHEYENNE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING A FEW INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH AN INCH OR SNOW OF ACCUMULATION IN
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ALONG THE PINE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE
SNOW WILL GENERALLY ONLY STICK ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC SNOW
LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT REALLY MISSING DEEPER INSTABILITY NEEDED
FOR VERY HIGH SNOW RATES. THAT SAID IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION UNDER ANY NARROWER BANDS BUT OVERALL
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD STILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLIPPING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT. WITH THE
MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT...WHICH WITH
LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST...POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS...IT JUST DEPENDS HOW FAST
THEY CLEAR OUT. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD IN
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING...THUS A FROST ADVISORY AND NOT A FREEZE
WARNING. CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS WRN NOAM. ANY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND ERN PAC SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FROM THAT DIRECTION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DRY AUTUMNAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. H7 TEMPERATURE PROGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN
10-12C AS WELL...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NR 70 SAT-MON AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 80 IN SPOTS TUE-THU.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

MOIST UPSLOPE WIND FLOW WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
AT TERMINALS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FOG AND RAIN WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW CIGS WILL OBSCURE THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
MOUNTAINS FOR ROUTES IN THIS AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND BE MAINLY CONFINED TO TO GRASSY SURFACES...SO SHOULDNT
POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR RUNWAYS. KRWL AND KLAR WILL BE WEST OF
THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH KRWL ONLY SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR
BETWEEN 00-08Z. RAIN/SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WITH LOW CIGS REMAINING THRU AT LEAST MID-
MORNING FRIDAY FOR MOST SITES. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

QUICK MOVING WINTER LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE AND OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...OTHERWISE MOST SNOW WHICH
OCCURS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOSTLY MELT
AFTER REACHING THE GROUND. WARMING TREND WILL BEING FRIDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     WYZ117>119.

NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     NEZ002-095-096.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
     NEZ003-019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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