Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KCYS 271132
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
532 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE REMAIN PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SITUATED WELL
EAST OF OUR CWA AND INTO THE MIDWEST. FOR TODAY...SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL RESIDE WITHIN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
A WEAK STORM OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME MIDLEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER JET LEVEL WINDS. WITH IT SHOULD COME MORE
MOISTURE AS WELL...AS LEAST OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THUS
MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AS FURTHER
EAST STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS BACK EAST ON MONDAY SO
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY...NAMELY DRY...VERY
WARM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STORM OR TWO OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL GRADUALLY BE FLATTENED BY A SERIES OF RIDGE RIDING
SHORTWAVES. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN TRACKING
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FROM NRN MONTANA/SRN ALBERTA TUESDAY MORNING
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DRAG A WK SFC
BOUNDARY NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL FUEL
PROGD INSTABILITY VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OF BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF SEASONALLY TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS DEPICT THE SECOND IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH TIMING APPEARS TO BE LATER WITH SFC
FROPA...LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL REMAIN FROM
TUESDAYS EARLIER FROPA. BEST CHANCES ON BOTH DAYS APPEAR TO BE
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THURSDAY/FRIDAY LOOK TO
PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ON THE ERN PLAINS AS THE FLATTENING UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. LOWERING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS COMBINED WITH SEASONALLY WARM SFC TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
MODEST DAILY INSTABILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL THE WARMEST
PREFRONTAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND
LOW/MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL WED-FRI AS THE SERIES
OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COMBINE WITH MORE DAILY CLOUD-COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THRU THIS TAF CYCLE AS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE AS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 30 AND 45 PERCENT. WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 TO
20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH VALLEYS BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RJM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.