Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 022320
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GENERAL MODEL TREND HAS PUSHED THE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT
AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS TIME IS OVER NORTHWEST
CARBON COUNTY. IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT ALL THAT BAD ACROSS
CARBON COUNTY AS TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...SUCH THAT SNOW IS GENERALLY NOT STICKING TO ROAD
SURFACES. THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS WET
ROADS COOL AND BECOME ICY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AN NOT
EXPECTING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE
00Z FORECAST MODLES SHOW THIS EVENING. TREND HAS BEEN LOWER WITH
QFP AMOUNTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING. GFS IS STILL
HITTING THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE INTO CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES PARTICULARLY HARD. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AND THE BEST INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER
AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE AS
MUCH PRECIPITATION AS THE GFS BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT EITHER...SO
DID NOT CHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND COLD STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND LIGHT SNOW AROUND...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
UNPLEASANT INTO THE AFTERNOON. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS STILL LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

AFTER A CHILLY MORNING THURSDAY..GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN AND SET UP OVER THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER WIND FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED MORE OUT OF A WNW TO NWLY
DIRECTION WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR RETREATING WELL NORTH OVER CANADA.
SNOW COVER MAY LIMIT WARMING INITIALLY BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S
AND 50S SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER TROF MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE MTNS SATURDAY OTHERWISE QUIET
WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY)

LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AFFECTING THE KRWL AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER
EASTWARD TOWARDS KLAR AND THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...AFFECTING KCDR AND KBFF FIRST AROUND 06Z AND THEN FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. KLAR WILL BE TRICKY
SINCE THE DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT CONSISTENT
SNOWFALL...EVEN THOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY NOT BE THAT FAR
AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     TUESDAY FOR WYZ102-106>108-115>117.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ104-105-
     109>114.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-103.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
     TUESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML/CLH



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