Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 191646
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VERY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH A STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND
ADDITIONAL STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST HIGHS BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
TSTM ALONG AND EAST OF I25 LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVE. MODEST
LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE SPARSE WITH SUCH WARM AIR ALOFT. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM
QPF AND HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO THOSE
AREAS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES...SO WILL KEEP
IT DRY FOR OUR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...DRY WEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS...THUS A CLEAR
AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT.

SUNDAY...NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR
COUNTIES. MODELS PROG SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...DRY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST. EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY...NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
DOUGLAS TO LUSK TO CHADRON...DRY ELSEWHERE WITH WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH OF THE CWFA OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DOES NOT REALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW POPS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE THATS OVER THE STATE.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS
TIME. GOING TO BE PRETTY WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
REACHING +18C BY FRIDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS
THE WEEK DRAWS ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LOWEST HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS FROM RAWLINS TO LARAMIE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AGAIN FROM RAWLINS TO
LARAMIE. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LARAMIE TO LUSK LINE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAMMER
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





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