Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HOT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
AREA...WITH NO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SIGHT FOR KANSAS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP
FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD WITH A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS THUS
BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL/LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT SOME HEADING TOWARDS MID-WEEK. MODEST RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
THE RESULT...AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLANNED WITH VFR WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-32 KTS THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING SOME AFTER DARK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
(ACCAS) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      96  73  96  72 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          94  72  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        93  72  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  93  73 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL        100  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      98  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          98  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       96  72  95  72 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  88  72 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         89  71  88  71 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            89  71  88  71 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  88  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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