Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1153 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Today:
Front moving through Central KS at this time is being aided by
good surge of cold air over western Nebraska. Generally based
today`s forecast on RAP which seemed to have best handle front and
cold air. Front should slow/stall late today in response to
lowering surface pressure in the west. Expecting showers and a few
thunderstorms to break out later this morning or more likely this
afternoon in southeast KS given approaching front/good upper
support and moisture influx. Temperatures should recover a bit
this afternoon where clouds thin/clear, but eastern extent of
clearing is rather tenuous, so afternoon temperatures may be
optimistic.

Tonight:
Some freezing drizzle possible tonight from warm air advection
over shallow cold air in central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Amounts/extent are not certain, but appears that accumulations
would mostly be a trace. Held off on an advisory at this time.
Day shift can reassess with this mornings model runs and a better
fix on position of front.

Tuesday-Wednesday:
With longwave trough remaining well to the west, surface boundary
will likely meander somewhere in the area through this period.
Given impressive baroclinic zone with front, large potential for
errors with temperatures and precipitation type. This is evident
in the 35 degree range in forecast high temperatures on Tuesday
across the forecast area. Appears that colder air will sink south
Tuesday night and Wednesday. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

More significant piece of energy will eject from western trough
during this period. Fair amount of discrepancy on strength and
timing of this between GFS/ECMWF. Per WPC discussion, consistency
has been a bit lacking so confidence is below average. That said,
quasi-stationary boundary and periodic ripples in flow will set
stage for multiple chances of precipitation. The location of
front will play heavily into precipitation type and precipitation
location. And of course this will also significantly impact
temperatures. For now, went along with initialization blend.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Aviation concerns will be low clouds, wind shear and freezing
precip.

Strong cold front continues to surge southeast and currently
extends from east of KEMP to between KWLD and KIDP. Front should
start to slow down its eastward progression. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to affect southeast KS through much of this
TAf period. Further north, may see a period of freezing drizzle
after 00z as isentropic lift just off of the surface develops with
temps still hovering around freezing. KICT and KHUT would have the
best chance at seeing some freezing drizzle tonight.

As far as ceilings go, should continue to see widespread MVFR
levels with pockets of IFR. May see a period of VFR over central
KS later this afternoon, but should come back down after dark.
Winds just off of the surface over much of the area will remain
strong out of the south and southwest, which will create
significant wind shear in both speed and direction, especially
across southern KS tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Gusty winds and warm air ahead of the cold front will briefly
produce very high GFDI values in southeast KS this morning. Once
front moves through, conditions should improve. Otherwise no
indications of serious fire weather threats through the rest of
the week as cooler air and generally lighter winds are forecast.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  42  43  17 /  20  70  40   0
Hutchinson      40  33  37  14 /  10  50  20   0
Newton          41  37  38  14 /  10  70  40   0
ElDorado        66  43  45  17 /  30  80  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   64  50  51  19 /  50  80  60   0
Russell         33  21  30  10 /  10  20  10  10
Great Bend      36  24  32  11 /  10  20  10  10
Salina          38  27  34  13 /  10  50  20   0
McPherson       41  32  35  13 /  10  50  20   0
Coffeyville     65  61  63  24 /  70  80  90  30
Chanute         66  53  56  21 /  80  90  90  20
Iola            64  52  54  20 /  80  90  90  10
Parsons-KPPF    65  58  60  24 /  80  80  90  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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