Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 251756
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...AND ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HELPING TO DEEPEN A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 18Z-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM- WRF/GFS/SREF INDICATE 55-60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM-WRF MAY BE
A BIT ROBUST WITH MUCAPES...A COMPROMISE OF THE
GFS/SREF/NAM12/RAP13 WOULD INDICATE POTENTIALLY 1200-2000 J/KG
MUCAPES ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM
18Z-21Z...WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE STORM TARGET AREA FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-21Z
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE WILL BE A NARROW
WINDOW THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ALTHOUGH ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS
COULD AFFECT AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 400. THE MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THOSE COUNTIES NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.20 TO 1.40 INCHES COULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTH. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AREA-WIDE. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING CLEARING. NOTICEABLY COOLER (BUT
MORE SEASONAL) AIR WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. ONLY A MODEST CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN
KANSAS...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED
TO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE GFS HAS A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS DEPICTION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT 20-30% IN MAINLY THE SOUTH FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT RIGHT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS. HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF VCTS IN KHUT/KICT/KCNU
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS EVENING...RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS AT KCNU. OTHER THAN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL DRIVE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 35-55% RANGE...SO NOT EXPECTING A CRITICAL
DAY...BUT HIGHLY ELEVATED NONETHELESS. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND LIGHTER
WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  34  57  33 /  50  60  10  20
HUTCHINSON      60  32  57  32 /  50  50  10  20
NEWTON          61  34  54  32 /  50  60  10  20
ELDORADO        69  35  55  33 /  60  60  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  36  57  34 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         56  28  59  30 /  30  30  10  20
GREAT BEND      61  28  59  30 /  40  40  10  20
SALINA          57  30  55  31 /  40  50  10  20
MCPHERSON       60  31  55  32 /  50  50  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  42  56  34 /  70  70  10  20
CHANUTE         71  38  54  33 /  70  70  10  30
IOLA            66  37  53  32 /  70  70  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  39  56  33 /  70  70  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.