Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Surface low currently centered across eastern Nebraska with fairly
large precipitation area to its north will continue to propagate
north and east into tonight. Precipitation has been a bit slow to
enter the southern forecast area but it`s finally getting there as
it gets a push from an upper wave along the western North
Dakota/South Dakota border. Still looks like the majority of this
precipitation will be generally south of Highway 2 with the
greatest amounts more along and south of I-94 (ND) and Highway 10
(MN). Latest model runs do slow down the eastward progression of
this precipitation so did trend towards higher PoPs overnight/early
Thursday morning more than the previous forecast to account for
this slower exit. The possibility still exists for a little bit of
snow mixing in late overnight and towards the morning hours
across the far east but any accumulations should be minimal as
rates shouldn`t be high enough to overcome the warm ground.

Another area of much lighter precipitation looks to move through
on Thursday (mainly across the north) with a weaker upper wave.

Temperatures to remain fairly mild overnight with plenty of cloud
cover in place with recovery into the low to mid 50s (pretty
similar to Wednesday) for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Thursday night through Saturday...The end of the work week starts
out fairly quiet with high pressure over the Northern Plains.
Temperatures will warm towards the 60 mark on Friday as the surface
high moves east and warm air advection starts to kick in. A northern
branch shortwave trough moving through southern Canada into the
Northern Plains on Saturday will help push a cold front down into
the area. However, there is a lot of inconsistency between the
deterministic models as to the exact timing of the front. Will keep
some fairly low POPs along the front as timing is uncertain and
model QPF is pretty sparse. For now will have highs in the 40s north
to 60s south with the boundary somewhere across the CWA on Saturday,
with further adjustments needed as timing becomes more clear.

Sunday and Monday...The frontal boundary that pushed through stalls
out near the ND/SD border, then starts to lift back north late
Sunday into Sunday night ahead of the next upper trough moving into
the region on Monday. There are still differences with the timing of
the warm front and exact track of the surface low, so will continue
with fairly high POPs area wide and highs slightly below seasonal
averages although rain and clouds will keep lows fairly mild in the
30s to low 40s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Some wrap around precip behind the departing
low on Tuesday, but then quiet as high pressure builds into the
area. Temperatures will be a bit below normal for late April.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites as high clouds continue
to spread across the region. Some mid clouds are also just
crossing the ND/SD border and will spread northward throughout the
afternoon; however, ceilings should remain VFR. Finally, MVFR
ceilings will push into the area from the south associated with an
area of rain. Impacts should mainly be confined to KFAR this
evening before progressing northward to the remainder of the sites
late in the overnight or early Thursday morning.

Light east winds will gradually back to the north/northwest
towards Thursday morning but remain fairly light under 10 kts.




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