Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
356 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main impacts in the short term will be wind and rain/T potential.
Mid level wave currently over the northern rockies will propagate
NE today. Associated surface low/boundary will reach the central
dakotas by late afternoon. High resolution short range models and
cams have backed off on rain potential in warm advection zone over
the FA from late morning into the afternoon. Nearly all guidance
limits shower potential to northern tier counties where there is
more available moisture and adjusted pops accordingly. Gradient
tightens up this afternoon as low approaches. GFS model soundings
show mixed layer to 850mb with 40 to 50kts through the layer. Do
not feel winds will be that strong but areas west of the valley
could approach advisory criteria for a couple of hours late this
afternoon. Will hold off on headlines but will need to monitor.
As clouds thicken this afternoon temperatures will not be quite as
mild but still above average.

Showers should increase in coverage tonight mainly east of the
valley as column will be more moist and lift to increase as nose
of upper jet approaches. T potential continues mainly during the
evening hours. Brunt of the pcpn should exit the east after
midnight. Temperatures will remain mild with clouds and relatively
warm column.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Next wave ejecting from west coast trough will track across the
central plains. This will put the best chance for showers across
the southern FA. Cloud cover will affect temperatures however with
overall warm start and minimal cooling through the column above
average temperatures to continue.

Cooler temperatures back towards average Tuesday as column
steadily cools. Low confidence on Pcpn chances so for now will
keep dry but this could change.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and moves a little east
through the period. Low amplitude ridge and trough develop over
western and eastern North America.

The ECMWF was a little faster than the GFS through the period. The
ECMWF has been trending slower and farther north and the GFS has
been trending slower and farther south. The forecast area remains in
northwest flow aloft. Short waves forecast to move across southern
Canada Wed through Sat.

Little change to high temperatures for WEd through Fri. Sat highs
were increase one to three degrees over yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR conditions however cigs will fall east of the valley tomorrow,
remaining VFR, in rain showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm...main impact will be increasing SE winds in the
afternoon hours with gusts over 30 kts possible in and west of the




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.