Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271529
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
929 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH MUCH
LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST OF THE VALLEY. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND MODELS SHOW
A SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY ALL DAY...MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SSE.
SPEEDS DO PICK UP THOUGH SO THERE IS SOME HOPE OF SCOURING OUT THE
LOW CLOUDS AS THEY APPEAR FAIRLY THIN. PRETTY HARD TO GET ANY
IDEA OF A TREND SO EARLY IN THE MORNING SO WILL BASICALLY STICK
WITH THE IDEA OF KEEPING CLOUDS WHERE THEY ARE THROUGH THE NOON
HOUR AND THEN BRINGING A SLOW DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IF CONDITIONS START TO CLEAR EARLIER WILL UPDATE
THEN. IF IT DOES CLEAR EARLIER TEMPS STAND TO RISE MORE TOO.
CURRENT RECORDS ARE

 41F...KGFK/KFGF/KFAR

THESE ARE WITHIN SHOT IF THINGS CLEAR OUT SOONER. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS AT THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE IF NEED BE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND MIDWEEK SNOW CHANCES.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL HINGE ON WHAT
CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES DURING THE DAY. CURRENT STRATUS CLOUD
SHIELD EXTENDS FROM VALLEY EASTWARD. MODELS CURRENTLY NOT HANDLING
CLOUD TRENDS WELL AT ALL AND HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON WHAT CLOUDS
WILL DO. HIGH RESOLUTION (HRRR) WAY TOO FAR WEST WITH LOWER CIGS
WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TOO QUICK IN PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOIST
EASTWARD. GFS AND TO A DEGREE THE NAM WANT TO CLEAR OUT THE VALLEY
AND DEVELOP LOWER CIGS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WESTERN EDGE SHOULD ERODE BUT MAY
BE TOO LATE FOR SOLAR TO AID IN WARMING. WITH UNCERTAINTY DID NOT
DIFFER TOO MUCH ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER MILD NIGHT.

COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SAG INTO THE FA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE DAY
MODELS SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO THE FA AND KEEP MOST
APPRECIABLE QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER. WITH MODELS TRENDING FOR
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND DELAY IN BRINGING MOISTURE SOUTH OF
INL BORDER DELAYED/TRIMMED POPS DURING THE AM AND HELD WITH CHANCE
POPS DURING THE DAY AS ECMWF AND NAM NEARLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
SO MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS AND DECREASED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES EAST.

TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL ON THE
WARM SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF SAGS OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL SHIFT SE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
EXPECTED AND THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

IFR/LIFR WIDESPREAD FROM THE VALLEY EAST AND SHOULD PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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