Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 112356
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
756 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

Gusty onshore flow will continue this afternoon and evening,
allowing dangerous swimming conditions to develop across Marquette
and Alger counties. Therefore, a beach hazards statement remains in
effect through this evening.

Otherwise, fog and low clouds have been slow to exit the region
today, with far southwest portions of Upper Michigan seeing much
more sunshine than the rest of the area. As the main area of low
pressure just off to our southeast continues to slowly exit the
region, these stubborn clouds will eventually begin to dissipate
from west to east across Upper Michigan this evening into the
morning hours tomorrow. A few pockets of lingering drizzle and/or
light rain are possible, especially across the east. Fog may
redevelop tonight, especially in areas that see lingering stratus
and/or clear skies.

Saturday, will be a much more pleasant day with mostly sunny skies
as drier air works in behind the exiting system. Afternoon cumulus
are expected to develop across the interior along with the return of
more seasonable temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

Fairly quiet weather expected through much of the extended forecast.
There will be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible
Monday afternoon and more widespread rainfall possible toward the
end of the extended forecast.

Sunday: The main upper-level trough axis will shift to the east of
the Upper Peninsula this weekend as a dry surface high pressure
builds into the area. This will keep conditions mainly dry for the
U.P. There will probably be some afternoon fair weather cumulus
clouds that develop during the afternoon hours; however, these will
quickly diminish as the sun sets. High temperatures will remain
mainly in the 70s as at least some troughing lingers over the area.

Monday through Wednesday: As the upper-level trough continues to
push slowly to the east, a weak shortwave is progged to brush
through the Upper Great Lakes region Monday afternoon. At this
point, it looks like the wave will slide through during peak heating
and just enough moisture and instability will be in place to allow
for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. The best
chances will be along any lake breezes that develop during the
afternoon as these will act as the trigger/low level forcing for
development. Otherwise, the rest of this period will remain fairly
dry with a warming trend expected as upper level ridging moves into
the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s
Monday before slowly warming to the upper 70s and low 80s by
Wednesday afternoon.

The rest of the extended: Model differences remain, on the
placement/development of a surface low progged to develop over the
Northern Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday; however, there
the general idea is the same. The EC is much more progressive with
the upper-level troughing and development of a surface low, while
the GFS keeps the ridge in place a bit longer (a reverse of previous
solutions). This will allow for some unsettled weather toward the
end of the extended (Thursday into Friday). At this point, will
stick with a consensus of the models for this time period,
introducing more of a widespread potential for scattered rain
showers.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 749 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

While VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at
KIWD and KCMX, drier air has been slow to spread into central Upper
Michigan. IFR cigs at KSAW should lift to MVFR by late evening and
finally to VFR late tonight, per satellite trends and short range
models low level RH progs.. Gusty north winds at KSAW will also
diminish leaving winds below 10 knots at all the TAF sites Saturday.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 228 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017

North-northeast winds up to 25 knots are possible through the
evening and into the overnight hours across the eastern half of the
lake as low pressure continue to exit the region. Winds will subside
from west to east to around 10 to 15 knots into Saturday afternoon
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Saturday night through the middle
of the week, expect winds to remain around or below 15 knots.
Towards the latter half of the week, winds will be between 15 and 20
knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ005-
     006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Ritzman



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