Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 031134
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ENERGY TRAILING BACK INTO MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE HAS CONTINUED TO BE
ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT WITH REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WNW INTO NRN
ONTARIO/FAR NE MN. ALTHOUGH KP59 HAS NOT INDICATED ANY MEASURABLE
PCPN...THERE PROBABLY HAS BEEN SOME SPRINKLES/-SHRA AT TIMES IN THE
VCNTY OF COPPER HARBOR OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.

TRACK OF SHORTWAVE JUST BRUSHING NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL LIKELY PASS JUST N AND E OF
UPPER MI THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH RECENT ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NE MN. IF THESE HOLD TOGETHER...THEY
COULD REACH WRN UPPER MI MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST N AND E OF THE AREA WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER
LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SCT SHRA/TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEST COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY KIWD TO KMQT LATE THIS
AFTN. MLCAPES SHOULD REACH THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE BASED ON
RAP/GFS/NAM (RAP HAS LOWEST MLCAPES AND NAM HIGHEST). WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FCST TO BE AS HIGH AS THE 30-35KT RANGE...THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IF THE HIGH END OF THE INSTABILITY RANGE IS
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO. WILL BE A WARM
DAY WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
COOLEST READING SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO A QUIET OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG/STRATUS ISSUES NEAR THE LAKE
TONIGHT FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD UNDER A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND. WILL
WAIT TO SEE HOW PCPN/FOG DEVELOPMENT PLAYS OUT TODAY BEFORE ADDING
FOG OR INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE
AREA TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIREWORK DISPLAYS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE EAST SIDE OF A LOW SLIDING
INTO MANITOBA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD TO HUDSON BAY BY MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
BY THE GFS/EC TO STRETCH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN TO NORTHEASTERN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P.
BETWEEN 12Z/06 AND 18Z/06 OVER THE WEST HALF AND BETWEEN 18Z/06 AND
00Z/07 OVER THE EAST HALF AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT LIKELY TO
DEFINITE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS STILL QUESTIONABLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 50 KNOTS...IS EXPECTED TO LAG WELL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FROPA DURING
PEAK HEATING AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
FRONT. WILL BE WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD FOG WAS ADDED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH RAIN FALLING INTO THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION OVER THE LAKES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE OVER AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BIT COOLER DAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 70S. OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY MORING OVER THE FAR EAST...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROGGED
TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.P. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL
STICK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
IMPACT KCMX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WITH A DIMINISHING TREND NOTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...ONLY VCTS WAS INCLUDED. PCPN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF
KIWD. NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND MAY
AFFECT KIWD/KSAW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/LOCATION...SO VCSH
WAS LARGELY UTILIZED. SHRA WILL END THIS EVENING. IF SHRA OCCUR AT
KIWD OR KSAW THIS AFTN...RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO GUST TO
AROUND 20KT THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS
PLATFORMS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. SINCE THE HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IS
WEAK...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...UNDER 15KT TONIGHT AND
SAT. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THRU SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUN AND THEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MON. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUN
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE
WATER SFC...THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. WHILE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON
MON...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
15-25KT NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE.

ON A FINAL NOTE...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TO CONTEND WITH TODAY ON
LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH
THE SHRA/TSTMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON


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