Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 140521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
121 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

No significantly impactful weather expected through Saturday.

A few light showers or drizzle is possible over the eastern half
this evening along and ahead of a cold front. Clearing skies behind
the front will allow for lows from the mid 20s interior W to the mid
40s along the shorelines.

Clouds will then be on the increase Sat ahead of a low pressure
system. Precip will move toward and possibly into the area through
00Z tomorrow evening. The GFS, CMCreg, and ECMWF show precip moving
in during the afternoon and covering much of Upper MI by late
evening. The NAM, NCEP WRFs, and other higher-res models keep all or
most of the area dry through late evening. Went with consensus
approach which resulted in chance PoPs moving in from the S in the
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 458 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

Models indicate that a progressive pattern will prevail with the
stronger forcing next week over Canada resulting in mainly dry
conditions after the weekend rain event. By the end of the week.
With the stronger shortwaves remaining to the north, mild weather is
expected with the colder air also remaining well to the north.

Saturday night, models were in good agreement with a strong
shortwave trough and sfc low will lifting northeast through the
region deepening to around 996 mb over northern lake Huron by
12z/Sun. The initial area of rain with the strong 300k-305k
isentropic lift should spread over the rest of the cwa during the
evening. The stronger fgen and deep layer qvector conv will then
move in btwn 06z-12z with some heavy pcpn. There is still
uncertainty where the heavier bands will develop, but most areas
should see at least 0.5 inch.

Sunday, strong cyclonic nrly flow and 850 mb temps dropping to
around -2C will bring additional lake enhanced rain into n cntrl
Upper Michigan as the main area of rain diminishes and slides to the
east. weak ridging and drier air building quickly into the area
behind the system will bring an end for most of the pcpn.
However, with 850 mb temps still around -5C some lighter nw flow
lake effect pcpn will linger into the afternoon.

Sunday night, lowering inversion heights and dry low level air
should limit potential for additional lake pcpn as weak ridging
builds into the area. The best chance for pcpn will remain over
the east downwind of the longer fetch.

Mon-Fri, dry weather with above normal temps are expected through
the period with highs climbing into the 60s after a cooler star
with mid 50s max readings on Monday.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 120 AM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected to linger through much of the TAF
period as drier air slides into the Upper Great Lakes region. This
will allow skies to remain clear through much of the TAF period.
High clouds will begin to stream in late in the TAF period as
moisture begins to return ahead of a strong low pressure system.
As the system approaches, winds will increase and low level
moisture will return to mainly IWD and KSAW toward the end of the
TAF period.


.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 337 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017

A low pressure system moving S of the area is expected to bring NE-N
Gales to 35-40kts over the eastern half of Lake Superior late Sat
night and Sun morning. Before that, NE winds will increase starting
Sat morning, but won`t exceed 25kts until Sat night. Winds will turn
out of the NW while decreasing on Sun. Winds should be less than
25kts Sun night and Mon before increasing up to 30kts from the SW
Mon night and Tue morning. Another round of winds up to 30kts, this
time from the NW, is possible Wed night into Thu.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for LSZ244-

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for LMZ221-



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