Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 132059
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
359 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 358 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

LES will move out this evening. A SFC trough trough extending from a
northern Ontario shortwave will move across the area and will bring
LES back into the Keweenaw late tonight into Sat morning then
diminishes in the afternoon. Over the far NE U.P. the LES will move
back in Sat. In both locations, snowfall amounts will be minimal at
less than an inch. Winds will gust to 25-30mph over the Keweenaw
late tonight into Sat morning, which will lead to blowing snow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

Sat night thru Sun night...High pres is fcst to build over the Upper
Lakes, bringing a period of dry wx. With flow becoming more zonal
across Canada and the northern CONUS, the air mass will moderate as
850mb temps rise from around -7C Sat evening to around 0C by Mon
morning. Under light/calm wind and mostly clear skies, favored the
low end of guidance for min temps Sat night. Looks like this will be
the last night of subzero temps in the western and central interior
for quite a while as it appears the warm pattern will persist thru
late month as noted on the CPC and CFSv2 outlooks which maintain a
positive height anomaly centered in the vicinity of Hudson Bay thru
late month. Under sunny skies Sun, max temps should rise to the
mid/upper 20s, perhaps above 30F in a few spots.

Vigorous shortwave currently dropping s thru CA will lift ne in a
much weaker state early next week, reaching the Great Lakes region
on Tue. The Canadian models and especially ECMWF are more aggressive
with warming ahead of this system than the GFS, suggesting a
potential wintry mix at the onset (late Mon/Mon night) changing to
more rain on Tue. The ECMWF shows more pcpn as well, on the order of
1/3 to 3/4 of an inch. Majority of ensembles and operational model
trends support a warmer look, but probably not to the degree of the
00Z/12Z ECMWF which raises 850mb temps to +4-6C over much of the
area for Tue. At this point, plan to carry a wintry mix, spreading N
Mon aftn/night with a change over to mainly rain on Tue. Pcpn may
end as -sn or -sn/-ra mix Tue night.

Mostly dry weather and well above normal temps should prevail for
the last half of the work week as broad ridging remains in control.
Weak disturbances rippling through the ridge should have little
impact given expected dry airmass in place. If any pcpn does occur,
it should be on the light side.

Late in the week, models fairly consistent showing mid-upper trough
amplifying over the western CONUS, resulting in a deep southerly
flow and unseasonable warmth into the Great Lakes for the weekend.
Whatever shortwave emerges from the trough, it looks like the
associated sfc low will track west of the region resulting in a
period of rain for the area next weekend. Some thunder may even be
possible for next Saturday if some of the more amplified solutions
are on the right track as both the operational ECMWF and GFS
indicate negative Showalter indices.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

IFR conditions at KIWD and KSAW.

At KCMX, expect lake effect to clear out of the next few hours.
Conditions will then go IFR for a time before a trough moves through
that will bring snow and lowered CIGs back tomorrow morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 358 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

The pressure gradient will increase once again tonight, between a
low pressure crossing Ontario and the high pressure system moving to
the east of the area tonight, expect southwest winds to increase up
to 30 kts and then shift to the west following a low pressure trough
passage on Saturday. There may be a few gale force gusts tonight
into Saturday morning; however, the coverage of these stronger gusts
are expected to be limited. High pressure will then build back into
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday and possibly even linger
into Monday, allowing winds to diminish under 20-25 kts. An area of
low pressure will approach the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and move
through Tuesday night; however, the system is not expected to be too
strong, so winds are expected to remain at or below 25 knots through
this time period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this
     evening to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday for LSZ162-242>244-
     263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Titus



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