Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 310942
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LATEST 09Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH ORIGINATED IN NRN CANADA NOW DIVING SOUTH THROUGH NRN WI. 1011
MB SFC LOW PRES ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE
HURON WHILE 1039 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS BUILDING OVER ERN ND. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS GENERATED NORTH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TO 35 KNOTS OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI. COLD AIR FLOODING INTO THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE LOWERED 8H TEMPS DOWN
NEAR -12C AND HAVE HELPED SUSTAINED WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS INTO WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG WINDS HAVE CARRIED THE HEAVIER LES
BANDS WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE BEST RETURNS (GREATER
THAN 30 DBZ) LOCATED FROM HERMAN AND THREE LAKES IN BARAGA COUNTY TO
REPUBLIC AND ISHPEMING TO NEAR GWINN IN MQT COUNTY. THE HIGHEST
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED THUS FAR WAS IN WAKEFIELD
WITH FIVE INCHES...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OTHER
LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN U.P SAW SIMILAR AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
PRECONDITIONING NOTED OFF LAKE NIPIGON ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING OVERWATER FETCH. ACCUMULATION CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WAS FAIRLY MINIMAL GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

TODAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40 KTS AND FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION TO NEAR 10 KFT ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/CONVERGENT FLOW
HAVE HELPED MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH OF LES BANDS OVER
BARAGA AND WRN MQT COUNTIES AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT LES BANDS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
THROUGH LATE MORNING HRS AS FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME
AND STRONG DNVA...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOC WITH BUILDING RDG TO THE
WEST EFFECTIVELY LOWERS INVERSION HGTS TO 5KFT OR LOWER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNTIL WE SEE GOOD DRYING/SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS MORNING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY WITH LAKE DELTA-T 18-19C ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LES ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SO WL MAINTAIN GOING LES ADVISORIES INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 30S UNDER COLD
AIRMASS.AND NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...VIGOROUS DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN
ADVANCE OF FAIRLY SHARP UPR RDG AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THRU THE NRN
PLAINS IS FCST TO SHIFT SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS TO OVER CENTRAL UPR MI
BY 12Z SAT. LINGERING LES IN THE EVNG OVER MAINLY THE N WIND SN
BELTS ACRS THE NCNTRL CWA AND E OF THE INCOMING RDG AXIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SINKS AOB 3K FT AGL AND
THE SUB INVRN MOIST LAYER WARMS ABV -10C AND THE DGZ. ALTHOUGH SOME
SC/FLURRIES MIGHT LINGER THRU MOST OF THE NGT OVER THE E
HALF...ARRIVAL OF HI PRES RDG AXIS OVER THE W WL BRING SOME CLRG TO
THE WI BORDER LATER. WITH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.10 INCH AND LGT
WINDS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE CLOSER
TO BIAS CORRECTED REG GEM WITH 10-15F READINGS COMMON OVER THE WRN
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BDR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN INITIALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NAMERICA...FEATURING A SHARP
CNTRL RIDGE AND DEEP ERN TROF...WILL DEAMPLIFY/BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE LONG TERM. SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN ERN TROF REDEVELOPS...BUT PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL MEAN BLO NORMAL
TEMPS INITIALLY WILL TRANSITION TO NORMAL TO ABOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL THEN BE A TREND BACK TO NEAR/BLO NORMAL TEMPS LATER NEXT
WEEK AS ERN TROF REDEVELOPS. AS FOR PCPN...AFTER DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...PCPN CHANCES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ONE SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
THAT LEADS INTO THE ERN TROF AMPLIFICATION. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...
THE FIRST REALLY COLD AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR N AMERICA WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN NCNTRL CANADA IN THE 7-10 DAY TIME FRAME AS A POSITIVE
ANOMALY DEVELOPS IN THE VCNTY OF AK/NW CANADA AND THE ADJACENT
ARCTIC OCEAN. AT LOWER LATITUDES...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS FCST
ACROSS THE CONUS...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THIS COLD AIR WILL DUMP S
ANYTIME SOON. IN FACT...CFSV2 RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THRU EARLY AND MID NOV...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

BEGINNING SAT...EXPECT MOSUNNY WX AS PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
SHIFTING FROM WRN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING TO ERN UPPER MI BY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES...THICKER CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. UNDER A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AND
DEVELOPING RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE...TEMPS OVER
THE W WILL REBOUND ABOVE 40F AFTER A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.
TEMPS OVER THE E WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S AS RETURN FLOW REALLY
DOESN`T GET UNDERWAY UNTIL EVENING.

HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SOME SAT NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AIR MASS WILL BE
MUCH TOO DRY AT LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL WORK TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. THE
LOWEST TEMPS TOWARD 20F WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR E AS THERE WILL
BE LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE EVENING...CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPS AOA 30F.
UNDER SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S
EVERYWHERE WITH MIXING TO 900-875MB. HOWEVER...GUSTY S WINDS UNDER
SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF
MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAKE THE DAY FEEL COOLER. ALTHOUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PCPN CONCERN.

ONE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES...SW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SW FLOW...MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS
SLOW PER FCST SOUNDINGS. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL
FORCING...SUN NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN
THE 30S.

MON THRU TUE NIGHT...NRN SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM FASTER
THAN THE SRN WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN TAP OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY GET SHUNTED E BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER LAKES. THUS...AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPING
RIBBON OF PCPN WILL PASS MOSTLY E OF THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. SO...BEST CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...FORCING FROM UPPER JET STREAK MAY WORK TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP PCPN BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUE. IN THE END...
THIS MAY RESULT IN THE BEST CHC OF PCPN OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -3 TO -5C BEHIND FRONT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX
WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OVER THE FAR W LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

WED/THU...A CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO TRACK SE THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. SINCE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK/INTENSITY
OF THE WAVE IS RATHER SIGNIFICANT...DIDN`T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
CONSENSUS FCST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON HAS BEGUN...AS LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THIS MORNING USHERS
IN MUCH COOLER MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH. ALL 3 TAF SITES TURNED OVER
TO ALL SNOW BY 0230Z. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM SNOW WISE
WILL EXIT E BY 10Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE N UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
GOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN LOWER CEILINGS HOVERING
AROUND IFR-MVFR...BLOWING SNOW FROM STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...REDUCING VIS TO AROUND 1SM OR LESS AT TIMES /PRIMARILY
BEFORE 09Z/. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20KTS AFTER
18Z FRIDAY...WHILE STILL GUSTING IN THE 25KT RANGE AT SAW THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS IN FROM THE W...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH IN WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BY MID AFTERNOON AT IWD
AND CMX...AND BY 06Z SATURDAY AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WITH PRES RISE MAX SAGGING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE LOW PRES CENTER OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTH WITH
TIME TODAY...WOULD EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT N GALES TO 35-40 KTS TO DIMINISH BLO GALES BY LATE THIS
MORNING WEST HALF AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF AND THEN CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER GRADIENT
OVERSPREAD THE LAKE W-E. LOOK FOR W WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR
     MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>006-009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ004>006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LSZ248-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>247-264.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
     240>242-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS






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