Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 261947
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
347 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

No major weather impacts expected in the short-term portion of the
forecast.

Tonight: A weak cold front/surface trough will slide across the west
half of the U.P. this evening and weaken further as it shifts across
the rest of the area tonight. The main focus for any rain showers
will be along and just ahead of the front, especially in the
evening. There may be just enough elevated instability to give a few
rumbls of thunder. Generally, any shower and thunderstorm activity
will diminish in both coverage and intesity as daytime heating
diminishes and the weak front begins to wash out. Drier mid-level
air will move in on the back side of the front, which may allow for
some fog development tonight in areas that receive light rain and
where clouds decrease.

Saturday: A quick moving upper-level 500mb ridge will slide across
the U.P. through early afternoon before the ridge axis slides east
of the area by mid afternoon. This will likely give sunny to partly
sunny skies across the area through much of the morning  hours. Once
the ridge slides to the east of the area, moisture will begin to
flow into the U.P. once again as broad troughing slides into the
area from the west. This broad troughing is associated with a broad
closed upper low and surface low over Manitoba. Models are showing a
weak shortwave sliding into the are during the mid to late afternoon
hours, which may end up giving some scattered rain showers over the
south central U.P. and poritons of the eastern U.P.; however, the
rain showers should remain light. High temperatures will remain near
to slightly above normal with highs running in the upper 60s to
around 70 for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Nam shows a closed 500 mb low north of Lake Winnipeg with a trough
extending down into the northern plains into the central Rockies 12z
Sat. This trough moves slowly east and affects the upper Great Lakes
Sat night through Sun night. Nam has some q-vector convergence Sat
night into Sun that moves through the area. With troughing in the
area, pops pretty much anytime cannot be ruled out. Overall, have
some low chance pops in for much of the forecast period and did not
make too many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough over the central
U.S. 12z Mon with a ridge in the western U.S. which remains
stationary into Tue. The ridge moves into the Rockies 12z Wed, but
the upper Great Lakes still remains in the upper trough into Thu.
Temperatures still look to remain below normal this forecast period.
No real dry periods, but not a total washout either.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

VFR conditions will continue into late this afternoon and early
evening before a few light showers move through by mid evening west
and overnight central and east. This may lead to occasional MVFR
conditions at each of the sites. While the rain will be light, the
rain that does occur may allow for enough low level moisture to
cause fog to develop late tonight mainly for the KSAW and KCMX TAF
sites. A lot of that hinges on added rainfall along with possibly
clearing skies late tonight; therefore, have left fog out of the TAF
for this issuance. Saturday, a bit drier air will slide through
allowing VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017

Through the weekend, winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected across
Lake Superior. Early next week, winds will increase to around 20
knots as an area of low pressure is progged to dig across portions
of the Upper Great Lakes.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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