000
FXUS63 KMQT 072040
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES /SNOW TO SLEET TO FZRA/ AND LACK OF DEFINITE
WARM LAYER ALOFT WITH SFC LOW TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN
HAS LEAD TO A HIGHLY VARIABLE FORECAST INTO THIS AFTN...THOUGH
LATEST TRENDS AT LEAST FOR THE EAST HALF NOW POINTING TO MAINLY
SNOW. EARLIER TODAY...HAD REPORT OF FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME ICING
OVER WESTERN IRON COUNTY WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THAT SAME COUNTY AND
INTO DICKINSON COUNTY...ONLY SNOW AND SLEET WERE REPORTED. FOR THE
MOST PART...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET THIS MORNING...PTYPE
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINED MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SNOW
AMOUNTS UP AROUND TWO INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...GREATEST FROM THE
MARQUETTE AREA ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND INTO LUCE COUNTY. POSSIBLE
THAT A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
MARQUETTE AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY WHERE AREA OF MID-LEVEL FGEN
HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN. COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THE DGZ IS SCOURING OUT OVER THE WEST
HALF /MINIMAL RH IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER/. THUS...WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURING OVER NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS
WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY.
EVENTUALLY...TEMPS H9-H85 FALL OFF BLO -10C WHICH SHOULD SWITCH ANY
FZDZ BACK TO SNOW. BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CAUSING ALL THE MESS IS
OVER CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST. WINDS IN BLYR ALREADY BECOMING MORE W-NW IN WAKE OF
TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS BECOME MORE
N-NE AS THE RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE TO NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY FZDZ LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE
BLYR WINDS LEAD TO UPSLOPE LIFTING NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESSENTIALLY
OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AND NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN.

EXPECT ANY UPSLOPE FZDZ/SNOW TO TRANSITION TO LGT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. SOME LARGER SCALE MOISTURE BLO H9 REMAINS BUT AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC EVERYTHING SHOULD FADE
OVER TO FLURRIES BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHERE THE
FLOW REMAINS UPSLOPE INTO SATURDAY THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD STAY
STUCK BENEATH H9 INVERSION. EVEN WITH THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER
LK SUPERIOR...CAN NOT CUT OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES UNTIL WINDS BEGIN
TO BACK MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTN. TEMPS LATE TONIGHT WILL TRY TO
FALL OFF INLAND...BUT DID RAISE THEM INTO LOWER TEENS WHERE CLOUDS
PERSIST. READINGS ON SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S WITH MORE
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING FOR ALL CWA BY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTINENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING A SIGNIFICANT AND LONG LIVED
WARMUP...THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH HAS CONTINUED FOR MUCH OF THE
WINTER WILL CONTINUE /ALBEIT A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED/ WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE ERN PAC AND WESTERN U.S. AND THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AS SUCH...DESPITE THE WARMUP SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL TUE-THU BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THEN RETURNING TO AOA NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT SE
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MOVES EAST.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAINLY
ON SUNDAY. THE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION SUN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP ANY CHC POPS CONFINED TO OVER
THE LAKE AND THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE 850MB TROUGH PASSES BY.
PROBABLY THE BIG STORY ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH
WESTERN AREAS SEEING HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH
EASTERN AREAS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S DUE TO COOLING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

THE NWP DIVERGE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING OVERTOP THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. WITH THIS SAID...THE BEST MOISTURE TENDS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP ANY
CHANCES OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ONLY SMALL
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES DURING THE
DAY. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER
TEMPS ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND THE SNOWPACK. IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLIDE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY KEEP AREAS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH AND MID-UPR 30S NORTH.

THE TUE-FRI PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT...EXPECT 850MB TEMPS TO
DROP BACK TO -15 TO -20C BY WED. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S TUE AND WED. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE N-NE FLOW ON TUE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES. LOWS WED
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH THE SFC
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO DECOUPLE THE PBL. THE FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO RISE TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY. NWP DISAGREEMENT ON
THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND SPEED OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THU INTO
FRIDAY LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT TIMING IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE FAST NW FLOW. WILL
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE GFS SUGGEST THE BEST POPS MORE THU
AFTN/NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WITH A CONSENSUS FCST WHICH DEPICTS
LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH THU AND FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CUT OFF POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN...THOUGH INITIALLY HAVE SOME MODERATE SNOW ONGOING AT KSAW.
EXPECT MAINLY FZDZ AT ALL THE TAF SITES MID AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE COOLER AIR COMES BACK...CHANGING ANY FROZEN PRECIP
BACK TO SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN WAKE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTN. EXPECT TREND
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING BACK
OVER THE AREA. MVFR MAINLY IN THE FORM OF CIGS AT OR BLO 2KFT WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION. EXPECT
WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA