Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW ONTARIO BETWEEN
TROUGHS OVER THE NW CONUS AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A
RIDGE EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULTING IN NE WINDS INTO UPPER MI. DAYTIME HEATING HAS FINALLY
HELPED DISSIPATE MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE
SUPPORTED SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM BIG BAY TO MUNISING.

TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 0.15
INCH(25 PCT OF NORMAL) WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE INLAND AND FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE...TEMPS MAY SLOWLY CLIMB LATE OVER THE
FAR WEST AS SRLY WINDS(BNDRY LAYER 15-20 KT) PRODUCE SOME MIXING.
SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS/LAKES AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S WHERE THE LIGHT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI BRINGS IN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WED...EVEN WITH A STRONG INVERSION...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND 925 MB
TEMPS NEAR 6C...SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EAST AND THE LOWER
50S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 00Z THURSDAY THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STUCK UNDER A RIDGE
IN BETWEEN THE STRONG CUT OFF LOW SWINGING N OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N PLAINS AND MANITOBA.

THE CANADIAN/N PLAINS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO AND LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF
LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO SCOOT THE TROUGH S OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS STAYS WITH MORE OF A STEADY ELONGATED TROUGH
SLIDING W-E. THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF RAIN AVERAGING
0.2IN OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE DRYING UP AND EXITING THE AREA.

AFTER ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY...NW FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF WAS A BIT FARTHER S AND QUICKER WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM MANITOBA AND W ONTARIO...INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS GLANCING N AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE. BRISK NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY /40-45KT 850MB LLJ/...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND
6-8C AT DAYBREAK TO 0-5C BY THE END OF THE DAY /COOLEST OFF THE
ECMWF/.

THE NEXT SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC...AND A NEARING LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. AT THIS POINT
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS
WI/UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 21/00Z ECMWF
EJECTS THE SYSTEM TO THE NE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE THE 21/06Z GFS RIDES AN ADDITIONAL LOW UP THE
TROUGH WHICH KEEPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THE PROGRESSIVE BUT
DRAMATIC ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS IT WOULD
STRAND A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE S PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER VISION OF WHAT MAY HAPPEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE CUT OFF
LOW SOLUTION OVER THE S PLAINS...AND LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKE THE
GFS...BUT A LOT WEAKER WITH LESS PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT KIWD WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS
LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER LK SUPERIOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE
OF A TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WNW WINDS TO 25 KTS
ON SATURDAY...STRONGEST OVER EAST HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB







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