Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 262339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
739 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a mid/upper level shortwave
over the wrn Great Lakes. The heaviest pcpn associated strong 800-
600 mb fgen was sliding to the south from ne WI into cntrl lower MI.
An area of rain with 700-300 qvector conv associated with the shrtwv
had spread across wrn and srn Upper Michigan but was slow in moving
into the drier airmass to the north and east. Over the southeast,
bands of lake effect rain have moved off of Lake Michigan
northwestard from ESC into sw Marquette county.

Tonight, although the models have trended slower and weaker with the
pcpn advancing into the region, expect at least some light pcpn over
most of the cwa with the highest pops/amounts remaining over the
south and only chance pops over the Keweenaw. NAM/GFS wet-bulb zero
heights suggest that the pcpn will change to or mix with snow over
the inland/higher terrain over the west half through the interior
east. Minor snow accumulations of less than a half inch may be
possible but with the relatively warm ground, would mainly be on
grassy surfaces.

Thursday, With the mid-level trough axis beginning to moving off to
the east, any lingering light rain/snow showers over the east half
in the morning will end by afternoon as ridging and q-vector
div/subsidence build in from the west. Additional light lake effect
rain may also linger from near ESC-MNM with ENE flow and 850 mb
temps near -3C. Clouds may linger through day though due to a lack
of good mixing and persistent low-level moisture trapped beneath the
strengthening subsidence inversion.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Made no significant changes to blended initialization as blends
handled low impact weather satisfactorily and accounted for
uncertainty in the extended. Only hazards of interest (with any
level of confidence) are potential for breezy southerly winds Fri
and gusty southerly winds on Monday, both of which the blends
represent well given the uncertainty.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Low pressure over Wisconsin continues to spread precipitation and
low ceilings across Upper Michigan this evening. MVFR conditions to
prevail at KCMX and KIWD through much of the forecast, with IFR
ceilings through much of the forecast at KSAW where upslope flow and
best forcing...and thus better chances for occur.
IFR conditions at KSAW to end as upslope diminishes on Thursday.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

SE winds to 30 knots will diminish late tonight into Thu as a trough
crosses the area. An approaching low pressure system on Fri will
allow south winds to increase to 20-30 kts, strongest on eastern Lk
Superior where gale gusts could be possible late on Fri. The low is
expected to cross over or near Lake Superior Fri night, shifting the
winds to NW to 20-30 knots late Fri night into Saturday. Gale gusts
could again occur over north central and eastern sections through
Sat morning. Winds will gradually diminish to under 20 knots through
the day Sunday. Winds may increase to 30 knots again Monday ahead of
the next low.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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