Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 142007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
307 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Tonight and Sunday: Broad surface high pressure shifts east across
the Upper Great Lakes region tonight and will persist into Sunday
ensuring dry conditions across much of Upper Mi through the period.
Lingering light lake effect snow over the Keweenaw Peninsula and the
far ne cwa will gradually diminish or end later this
evening/overnight as building high pressure from the west continues
to moderate the airmass while lowering subsidence inversions to 2-3
kft as noted on model forecast soundings. Diminishing wind and
proximity to high pressure area moving just to the south will allow
western interior locations especially near the Wi border to dip into
the single digits blo zero again tonight. Min temps will stay warmer
(generally in the single digits above zero) near Lake Superior with
expected onshore wnw flow through much of the night.

Warm advection under sunny skies should allow max temps to rise into
the mid/upper 20s on Sunday, with some readings topping 30F over the
W and N central where sw winds downslope.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Most attention is early in the long term as a couple upper waves
interact and move through the region, packing a SFC low along with
them. Still lots of uncertainty as one piece of energy is over the
Gulf of Alaska and the other over the Baja Peninsula. General idea
is that precip will move in late Mon into Mon night then, for the
most part, exit late Tue into Tue night. Precip looks to start as
snow, then transition to sleet then to rain and some freezing rain
as warmer air moves into the area. Models have been trending
slightly cooler, which would result in more snow and sleet, but
there is plenty of time for that to change. Overall do not expect
any major accumulations of any given precip type, but there could be
travel impacts given potential for sleet and some ice. Blended
forecast initialization worked well, especially given uncertainty
involved, so made no changes.

The rest of the long term looks quiet with minimal precip chances,
highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s to around 30.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Expect mainly VFR conditions at KIWD and KSAW through the TAF
period. The passage of a weak trough today has shifted winds to the
west allowing MVFR conditions to occasional IFR conditions in lake
effect clouds and snow to return to CMX. There could be some blowing
snow as well at CMX with any fresh snow and gusty west winds to 25
knots today. Approach of high pressure ridge along with moderating
airmass will end lake effect later tonight into Sunday allowing KCMX
to improve to VFR conditions.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 225 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

Pressure gradient will continue to weaken across Lake Superior this
evening as high pressure builds back into the area tonight, allowing
winds to diminish under 20-25 kts late tonight. The pressure
gradient will tighten once again Sunday into Sunday night as low
pressure slides across central Canada and the high pressure ridge
over the Upper Great Lakes shifts to the east. This will allow
southwest winds to increase up to 30 knots once again. There could
even be a brief period of gales to 35 knots between Isle Royale and
the Keweenaw Peninsula late Sun afternoon/early evening. The next
area of low pressure will approach the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and
move through Tuesday night; however, the system is not expected to
be overly intense as winds should remain at or below 25 knots
through this time period. High pressure dominating the last half of
next week will continue to keep winds generally light (blo 20 knots)
thru much of the period.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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