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000
FXUS61 KBUF 032103
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AND REGION WILL BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER MILDER AIR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MORNING. ANOTHER POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR
SHOW MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO ABOVE FREEZING AND THEN
DROP TOWARD MORNING. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE ADVANCE OF WARM AIR
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE INITIAL ADVANCE OF SNOW WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIX PRECIPITATION AND TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
HAVE REACHED ALL THE WESTERN TAF SITES FROM ROC TO JHW AND POINTS
WEST. WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALREADY AT
ERI HAVE USED THE HOURLY SSEO AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR GUIDANCE ON
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE
HAVING TROUBLE WARMING OVER OHIO AND PA SO SOME DELAY IN RISING
ABOVE FREEZING MAY BE WARRANTED OVER NY. NEAR ART CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT A COMPLETE CHANGE TO JUST
RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LAKE ERIE BEING
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TYPICAL WARMING FROM THAT DIRECTION MAY BE
MUTED THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD AND
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.



&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...