Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 202348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
748 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AS A COOL AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS SPRINGS WARMTH AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS AND INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE RIGHT
REAR JET QUADRANT WILL QUICKLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. DRY
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
MAY BE BENEFICIAL SINCE IT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN MOST AREAS. FOLLOWING SATELLITE
TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD FROM SW-NE THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST LONGEST IN THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...WITH LEWIS COUNTY STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ANY FROST. WILL KEEP
HEADLINES AS IS FOR THE UPDATE...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN LEWIS COUNTY TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

TOMORROW HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUCH THAT WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. WE SHOULD STILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE...WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH MID 60S FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND GENESEE/FINGER LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THETA-E POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS...BUT FOR THE PART EXPECT THE FRONT TO
SLIDE THROUGH DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATER FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY...RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE COLDEST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK WITHIN THE HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BROAD SURFACE WHICH HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST SUNDAY WHILE A STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUING TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH A SURFACE WARM FORECAST
PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY. THINK THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE
BETTER IDEA JUST BASED ON STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY SNEAKING INTO WESTERN AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED/WET
WEEK WILL BEGIN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START OFF AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEAVES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY
BUT STILL REMAIN VFR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING ON
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS TREND THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ON EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO ABOUT WHEN THE HEADLINES ARE SET TO
EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN WINDS AND WAVES MAY
NEAR SCA ON THE LAKES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



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