Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT
SUNSET THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-90...EXTENDING TO THE PA STATE LINE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. 925
MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY ALLOW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUPPORT THE EXISTING
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HOWEVER AT 23Z NONE OF THIS WAS IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN WEST...WHILE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WITH NIGHTFALL AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS JHW WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO BUF/IAG/ROC...MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS AS SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSH ENHANCE DRYING. ART SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHOUT ANY LAKE
MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM






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