Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
WARMEST AIR OF THE SPRING SO FAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN MAY END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW ON
TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS A DISTINCT DOWNTREND THAT CORRELATES WELL WITH MESO-ANALYSIS
THAT INDICATES INCREASING STABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH OF
PULLED OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN NY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH WHILE ACTIVITY WILL
INSTEAD FOCUS ON THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD SEE RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE MILD SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH
SHOULD END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
SOUTH AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT WE WILL BE IN A FAIRLY DRY SW FLOW OF WARM AIR. THIS FLOW
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON WARMTH TO THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTS ON
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORES...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS LIKELY TO PUSH 80 IN A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...THE
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S...IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE A SUMMER NIGHT. MONDAY WILL START
ON A WARM NOTE AND TEMPS WILL RISE ACCORDINGLY TO HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO THE LOWER 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE A RESTRICTING FACTOR ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AS
WE MOVE INTO MONDAY EVENING PWATS ACROSS WESTERN NY SHOULD SURGE
ABOVE AN INCH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NY. WITH DECENT DYNAMICS AND WIND
FIELDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY FEATURE STRONG WINDS MONDAY
EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH THE
ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES RIPPLING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SOLID ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
RAINFALL AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING/THAWING ON MONDAY WILL
GENERATE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HYDROLOGICAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION BELOW...BUT THAT`S NOT
ALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A COATING TO ISOLATED AREAS WITH A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO
THE 30S ON TUESDAY. READINGS WILL TUMBLE EVEN LOWER...INTO THE LOWER
20S WITH UPPER TEENS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.

A COMPACT BUBBLE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN WITH A ADVANTAGE OF MID
APRIL SUNSHINE. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BLANKET TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FROM FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...EVEN TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND AND START TO THE WEEK...MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WEEK AS A
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SLIGHTLY RIDGE UPPER PATTERN WILL PROTECT THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN AN
UPPER WAVE TRANSVERSING THE MID CONTINENT WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS AND BRING AN OCCLUDED LOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER THAN 12Z
ECMWF PRECIP FIELD...BUT WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND SEE
HOW THINGS TRANSPIRE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF AS CONVECTION IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING STABILITY AND NO MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH REASONABLY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...CIGS/VSBYS ARE
REMAINING IN VFR TERRITORY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.

REGARDING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...A LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER KBUF VAD PROFILER DATA
INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER WINDS... ABOVE 40KT...BEGIN AROUND 3KFT.
AS SUCH LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF KBUF WHERE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTRASTS SHARPLY WITH STRONGER SW
FLOW AT 1500FT. THIS LLWS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
ON SUNDAY LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SW WINDS BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT EXPECTED. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS
AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR LATE WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING SSW FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES...WITH SOME SNOW ALSO IN WOODED AREAS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN
WARMER THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY MELT MOST IF NOT ALL THE
SNOW PACK IN PLACE. INITIALLY...THIS WILL POSE THE RISK FOR RISES
IN CREEKS WHICH ARE FED BY SNOWMELT FROM THE TUG HILL.

BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
THE SNOW MELT COULD PUSH THE BLACK RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. MMEFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH MOST MEMBERS SUGGESTING A
CREST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL







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