965
FXUS61 KBUF 251741
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
141 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy stationary front will linger across western NY today. Some
showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front, especially
for this afternoon as the front stalls near and just south of the
NY/PA border. Showers and thunderstorms are capable of heavy
downpours and gusty winds. The end of the week into the first half
of the weekend will become more active as a disturbance tracks near
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wavy stationary front stretches from Lower Michigan to western
NY, with another segment of a front across the northern shore
of Lake Ontario into the Saint Lawrence Valley this afternoon.
A humid airmass is in place across the region with a PWAT from
the 12z kbuf raob of 1.92 inches (1.98" is the daily max.)
Heavy showers will sag south across the southern portion of the
Niagara Frontier and Genesee Valley this afternoon. Mesoanalysis
shows instability of 1-2k J/Kg just south of these showers. As
the front sags southward today, additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop across the western Southern Tier. A
west- northwest to east-southeast storm motion may result in
training thunderstorms into this evening. Heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding are possible, with 30-50% HREF
probability of greater than an inch in three hours in localized
areas in Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

A ridge will remain across the southeast U.S. through Thursday. A
corridor of deep moisture will persist across the forecast area. The
weak front will move south of the forecast area through the first
half of tonight. This will keep the better forcing for showers and
thunderstorms south of the forecast area. The front will lift into
western NY late tonight through Thursday morning before moving back
south-southeast Thursday afternoon. An area of showers and a few
thunderstorms is becoming increasingly likely across western NY late
tonight into Thursday morning. While the thunder risk is low, skinny
CAPE, short MBE vectors, and high 1000-500mb RH% will result in
heavy downpours in showers. There remains some uncertainty with the
northward extend of the front Thursday, but consensus has it up to
the southern shore of Lake Ontario. The front will move back south
Thursday afternoon and should dry out areas across western NY, with
lingering showers across interior locations. A weak disturbance may
produce some showers across the Saint Lawrence Valley Thursday
afternoon.

There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for western NY
through Thursday night. Training storms and heavy rain are possible
in the outlook areas, however the threat seems isolated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The now weakening ridge across the southeastern United States
Thursday will persist throughout the weekend, placing the forecast
area on the northern edge. Additionally on the top of the ridge, a
swath of anomalously high precipitable water values supported by
NAEFS PWAT values to be over 95% for late June. A weak shortwave
trough, will support a surface low over the northern Plains Thursday
to travel northeast of the forecast area by Friday night, resulting
in a warm front to slide across the region by Friday and a cold
front to be knocking on the western doorstep by Saturday morning.
Overall this will result in a period of unsettled weather supporting
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night.
Should note that there will be the potential for some training
thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and a threat of flash
flooding due to unidirectional westerly flow. This being said,
there is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across western
and central New York, with the best chances lying across the
southern portions of New York State.

As alluded to previously, the unsettled weather continues Friday as
warmer air aloft advects across the area. Increasing instability and
mid-level flow will support chances for showers and thunderstorms,
with a few storms having the potential to become strong. The
greatest threat from the stronger storms will be strong winds along
with the continued chances for flash flooding. Chances for showers
will continue into Friday night as a cold front approaches from the
west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow this weekend will give way to a deepening trough carving
out across the Great Lakes early next week. In the wake of the cold
frontal passages Saturday and exiting chances for showers and
thunderstorms, expect a brief period of dry weather Sunday. With the
carving trough, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the area into the start of the new work week as a cold front
approaches and crosses the area.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures for late June will gradually
increase everyday through Monday. Then in the wake of a cold frontal
passage temperatures will fall back to near normal for the start of
July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A wavy front will move across western NY through tonight with
showers and thunderstorms possible across interior portions of
western NY, mainly the Southern Tier through this evening. The front
will return late tonight into Thursday with showers developing
across western NY. A humid airmass will result in heavy downpours
even outside of thunderstorms. Sudden reductions in visibility are
possible in heavy showers. The threat for thunder remains low
tonight through Thursday morning.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected in through Thursday morning.
As mentioned above, brief and sudden flight restrictions are
possible in any showers and thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday...A few showers and thunderstorms at times. Mainly VFR,
with local/brief restrictions in thunderstorms.

Friday...Restrictions likely with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development expected.

Saturday...Improvement to mainly VFR with chances for showers and
thunderstorms diminishing from northwest to southeast.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...A few showers and thunderstorms at times. Mainly VFR, with
local/brief restrictions in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will sag south across the area this morning,
shifting winds to the northeast today and lasting into the end of
the week and supporting at times a light to moderate chop. A few
rounds of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms (and locally
higher gusts associated with the stronger storms) will be possible
each day through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/SW
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...EAJ/PP