Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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577
FXUS61 KBUF 021838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH OVERCAST SKIES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR



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