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000
FXUS61 KBUF 041812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
112 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE OH VALLEY NE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  A
FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM THIS LOW ALONG A TROUGH TOWARD THE MOUTH
OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER.

THE LOW AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WASH OUT DUE TO A LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE APPEARS RATHER WEAK
AND WITHOUT MUCH JET SUPPORT PER SATELLITE ANALYSIS.  STILL...EXPECT
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MARGINAL ACCUMULATIONS
TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO AND ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK LOW WILL WEAKEN MORE AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD...REMOVING
ANY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER THIS
EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP DOWN TO AROUND -18 TO -20C OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WHILE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO 6K FEET WITH AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT WITH LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH WEAK
FLOW AND LAKE INFLUENCES.  WITH MARGINAL LIFT...WILL PLACE A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR LAKE SHORE AREAS FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO ABOUT MONROE
COUNTY LATER TONIGHT...MOVING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

LATER ON WEDNESDAY WEAK ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES...BUT AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO
ANY RESIDUAL SNOW FLURRIES WITH CLEARING SKIES POISED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SPLIT FLOW...RELATIVELY LOW IN
AMPLITUDE...WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF 60N. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 SO THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH ARE IN THE LOWER 40S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
ANY WEAK...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY SHUT DOWN AS A CRASHING CAP WILL BE FOUND
WITHIN A VEERING OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH (IE. LIGHT WINDS)...
THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR ONE MORE VERY COLD NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION...
ALTHOUGH SOME ALTO-CU PRODUCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW COULD BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THAT IS PROBABLY GETTING TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST
THOUGH AS THE DAY WILL BE A NICE ONE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE STILL NOSING BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL NOT ONLY PROMOTE
FAIR WEATHER BUT SHOULD HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS SOME 10 TO 15 DEG
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE FOUND OVER OUR
REGION...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING VIA THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US IN A WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN...SO PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
ELEVATING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
(MID 30S EAST OF LK ONTARIO).

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS A BIT GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WILL GO WITH
FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PACIFIC BASED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO KEEP OUR MERCURY FROM BREAKING THROUGH TO
ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL BE VAST IMPROVEMENT
FROM RECENT WEEKS.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY INCLEMENT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW
LEFTOVER NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER SATURDAY MORNING...
HIGH PRESSURE ARCHING ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A FAIR DRY DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE
CHILLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY (WAKE OF COLD FRONT) THOUGH AS MAX
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO KIAG AND KART THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT...WEAK
UPSLOPE WILL CREATE MAINLY MVFR CIGS IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT...PROBABLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START...THEN DETERIORATING SOME TO MVFR IN A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THIS LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDS AND WAVES
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...THOMAS