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000
FXUS61 KBUF 131458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1058 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR PASSING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LAKE TODAY. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BEFORE A WARM
FRONT USHERS IN A SIGNIFICANT THOUGH BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 15Z...LIMITED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY OVER TO ABOUT
OSWEGO COUNTY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING DRY
WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES. TO THE WEST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONSPIRE WITH
STRONG MID-MARCH DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO BREAK UP THE LINGERING WEAK
LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THESE ALSO
MIGRATING TO AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE LAKE
AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SLOWLY BACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. DO NOT
EXPECT THESE TO AMOUNT TO MUCH GIVEN THEIR ALREADY WEAK STATE AND
THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AROUND 3 KFT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY ACCUMS
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SUNSHINE OVERALL. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AS ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN FIRM
CONTROL...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY LIMITED TO THE TEENS. WHILE WIND
CHILLS THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL STILL KEEP THESE IN THE
SUB-ZERO RANGE FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW SINGLE NUMBERS INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID TEENS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARMER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY
AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WARMUP SHOULD
BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE RECENT SNOW COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR THE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...GENERALLY AROUND 40. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY
WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGESTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING THE SAME IDEA IN TRACKING CLIPPER LOW
JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DROP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. COLDER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT MIX LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
AND SETTLE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL...WITH A MINORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE (GGEM) STALLING THE FRONT ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...WITH
MOST OTHER GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) DROPPING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH.
FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...EXPECT WE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOWER 20S ON SUNDAY...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
AND TRACK OUT TO INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE GGEM
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW...WHICH MAY
CLIP OUR CWA IF IT VERIFIES.

GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR MONDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR
NORTH IT WILL LIFT.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERED AS TO WHETHER
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WARM OR COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE MVFR FOUND IN LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR AREAWIDE
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND ACTS IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG MID-MARCH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO WEAKEN AND BREAK UP
THE ALREADY WEAK LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MID CLOUD DECK ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BUT THERE
WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY
NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY AT THAT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR FREEZING
SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE BRISK
WINDS AND COLD AIR.

WINDS SHOULD RELAX TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT ACROSS THE LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHENING ON THE LAKES...POSSIBLY TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/WCH
MARINE...JJR/WOOD