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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA