


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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020 FXUS61 KBUF 080613 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 213 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier and somewhat cooler air into the region through mid week, before more unsettled conditions return later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak cold front continuing to slowly press southeast through the state this morning. Just a few light echoes showing up within the more humid airmass ahead of the front, otherwise drier air moving in behind the front. Northerly flow behind the front will maintain a decent amount of stratus this morning before mixing out by afternoon. The front will shift south of the area today, but stall just to the southeast of the area. Chances for any showers close to the boundary across the interior Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes looks to be around 20 percent. Temperatures today in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with cooler readings across the higher terrain. Dry weather tonight, with some patchy valley fog and temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A Bermuda high will result in a persistent corridor of deep moisture across the east coast Wednesday through Thursday night. The overall mid-level pattern becomes troughy across the Great Lakes region during this time. A mid-level trough will move from northern Ontario to southern Ontario before moving into Quebec by Thursday night. A weak area of low pressure will lumber from the Mid-West to the eastern Great Lakes region. There will be an uptick in moisture Wednesday ahead of the mid-level trough and surface low. Daytime heating and moisture will result in a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across western NY with concentration along lake breeze boundaries and the terrain late Wednesday afternoon into evening. Mid-level flow will keep things moving but weak shear will result in a low probability of severe weather. The surface low and trough move into the Lake Erie region, while weakening and slowing down by Thursday. Modest moisture and daytime heating will result in showers and a few thunderstorms inland from the Lakes Thursday afternoon into the evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms may linger into Thursday evening as the mid-level trough axis moves across the region. Seasonable temperatures are forecast Wednesday through Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NAEFS ensemble mean 500-hpa shows weak ridging across the region Friday through Saturday. Surface high pressure should move into the region Friday through Friday night and dry weather is anticipated. A mid-level trough across the Northern Plains/Mid-West will slowly approach the region through the weekend. An associated surface low will likely move across the Upper Great Lakes while a warm front ushers in warmer air and moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. The speed of the next airmass building into the region is uncertain which leads to low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms into the next work week. Above average temperatures are anticipated this weekend which could lead to uncomfortable heat indices. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some patchy fog early this morning, but low confidence in restrictions at any terminal. IFR/MVFR ceilings this morning will burn off by mid to late morning, with VFR expected this afternoon. Outlook... Tonight and Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but restrictions possible in patchy valley fog late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Thursday through Saturday...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Northerly to northwesterly winds behind a cold front will remain light through today. Generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions then expected to continue through the rest of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...TMA MARINE...AR/JJR/TMA