Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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236
FXUS61 KBUF 072331
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
631 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT...BUT LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL SNOWS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH THIS FEATURE BETWEEN A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IR IMAGERY DISPLAYS SOME CLEARING ALONG OUR
EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE
SOUTHERN TUG...WITH A THICKER CANOPY OF CLOUDS TO THE WEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE REGION DRY OVERNIGHT WITH NO
REAL SOURCE OF FORCING TO BE FOUND. A MODEST SE FLOW AND PATCHY
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. THE FORECAST LOWERS CONSENSUS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS
CLOUDS/WINDS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THE MOST PART...MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH OUR REGION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN MULTIPLE SYSTEM. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE EAST TO BRING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION FROM A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD ENTER FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
SLOWER...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY NARROW SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS DESPITE THIS TREND. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO DO A BETTER JOB DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN MULTIPLE SOURCES OF
LIFT WHICH WILL VIRTUALLY SURROUND OUR REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY START OFF AS RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GO THROUGH A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
THE SURFACE LOW FILLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS A SECONDARY COASTAL
LOW FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SCOOTS OFF QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A WARM TROUGH OVER NEW YORK STATE AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS
MEANS THAT THE REGION WILL LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AS THE COASTAL
LOW TAKES OVER AND COLDER AND DRIER IR AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S FALLING TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THEN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY COLD TEMP ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS...CONTINUING THE HYBRID OF
SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE FILLS AD DISSIPATES...LEAVING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE
TO DROP TO AROUND -20C.

WHAT REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...IS A PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH A STREAM OF COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE LAKES...PRODUCING
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. IT IS MUCH TO FAR IN
TIME TO SAY WHERE ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE LAKE SNOW MIGHT BE
ESPECIALLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS COULD VERY LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR...THE WINTER SEASON...BUT MAY BE A
SHORT LIVED COLD SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH GREATEST SPEEDS MONDAY MORNING...BUT STILL MAINLY
LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

A SLOW...EASTWARD BOUND COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW RAIN AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE TAF AREA TO CLOSE
OUT THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
LAKE ONTARIO LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BUILD WAVES ON
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE IN CANADIAN
WATERS...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE WAVES MAY BUILD TO 5 FT WEST OF
HAMLIN BEACH ON LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW FORECAST.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL



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