Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230555
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...AND WHILE IT WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL CHANGE AFTER TODAY AS A SIGNIFICANT DAY TO DAY WARMING
TREND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE MERCURY WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING. THE WARMTH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AT 05Z WILL KEEP STARLIT SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FROST BY DAYBREAK
WITH PARTS OF THE REGION EXPERIENCING A RARE LATE MAY FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION AT 06Z WERE ALREADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME SPOTTY 20S SHOWING
UP IN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.

FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A BONE DRY AIRMASS WILL GUARANTEE A SUN FILLED SKY
FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE SOME ALTO-CU WILL DRIFT BY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE WEALTH OF SUNSHINE...IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60 TO 65. THE
MERCURY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S THOUGH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO IN DOWNTOWN BUFFALO WHERE A SOUTHWEST
WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A RISK FOR ANY
FROST FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER MAY HAVE PATCHES OF FROST.

SUNDAY WILL START COOL AND CLEAR...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR WNY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ALL AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. GREATEST QPF WILL BE NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A GENERAL HALF INCH OR MORE
OF RAIN MAY FALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. BASIN-WIDE ACROSS THE CWA
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OR TWO.

IN ADDITION TO WARMTH BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...WE WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. FORECAST HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER (OR
COOLER) DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT
MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BERMUDA HIGH PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GUARANTEE THAT
THIS WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD...AS A CONTINUAL FEED OF AIR
OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN THAT OUR AIRMASS WILL INHERENTLY BE MORE UNSTABLE...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY LARGELY
ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR OROGRAPHICS TO INITIATE.

THAT BEING SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE RAINFREE...
SO WILL ONLY USE 30-40 CHC POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S GIVING US A
TASTE OF STICKY SUMMER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WIDE OPEN VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KART AND KGTB LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
COVERED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ005>008-012-
     013-019>021-085.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>004-010-
     011-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH/TMA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.