Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 192137
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
537 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will
remain in place across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Plenty of sunshine continues to be found across the forecast area
this afternoon, as the area remains under the influence of a zone of
subsidence on the western flank of Hurricane Jose, which continues
to spin off the mid-Atlantic coast. High clouds associated with a
stalled frontal boundary to our west and filling upper level trough
over the southern Great Lakes are streaming across far western new
York, but any thicker cloud and precipitation associated with these
features will be held at bay to our west by persistent ridging
currently in place across our area.

With this in mind, expect widespread clearing tonight, as an
lingering cu quickly dissolve after dark, with the loss of diurnal
heating. With clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints only falling
into the upper 50s to lower 60s, expect fog to develop not only in
the river valleys, but across portions of the Finger Lakes and
southeast of Lake Ontario, where skies will be clearest. Similarly,
look for lows to run in the lower 60s across most locales, with mid
to upper 50s in the cooler areas of the Southern Tier and North
Country.

Look for much of the same on Wednesday, as high pressure will remain
in control across the region. Abundant sunshine and 850mb temps that
will be just a little warmer will result in Wednesday running a
couple of degrees warmer, with readings in the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Two words will summarize this time period...DRY and WARM.

There will be an amplifying upper level pattern in place during this
time period with equally anomalous height departures found over each
half of the country. For our interest here in the Lower Great Lakes
region...H5 heights will average close to 590dm...which is 2-3 STD
higher than where they should be for this time of year. The staunch
summer-like ridge...which will be centered over the Mid-West and
Lower Great Lakes...will support unusually warm conditions as well.

H85 temperatures that will start off in the mid teens C Wednesday
night will further warm to the upper teens C by the weekend.
This will encourage additional day to day warming so that by
Saturday... max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s F. Given
the increasingly dry antecedent conditions...its not out of the
question that select locations in the Genesee Valley (ie.
Dansville) and in the typically warmer valleys of the Southern
Tier would reach 90. If this were mid summer...when the sun
angle would be more than 20 deg greater...then we would likely
be talking about increasingly uncomfortable conditions and
possibly some oppressive heat (esp this weekend). Luckily for
us...the Gulf of Mexico will be cut off..so dew points for much
of the period will generally range from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...
outlying areas...and particularly in the Southern Tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Southern Tier and
parts of the North Country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
continued fair weather during this period...along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late July-
early August).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame...with 590dm heights over the Lower
Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values.
The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day...with H85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon max temps in the mid to 80s.
The warmer valleys will experience highs in the upper 80s. These
temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile at night...mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fair skies will generally persist over the next 24 hours, as high
pressure remains in place across the region. The clearing skies will
result in the development of fog in the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes overnight, with fog potentially affecting KROC-KFZY as well
later tonight. Fog should rapidly dissipate after 12-13Z on
Wednesday, with mostly clear skies, apart from passing high clouds
in western New York.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR
conditions each late night and early morning with Southern Tier
valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and next
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL/WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS



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