Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 250853
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summertime weather is on its way with highs climbing through the 70s
and into the 80s by this weekend.  Along with the warmer
temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring back
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading up
to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weakening mid level trough will enter the ridge of high pressure
currently across our region. This trough will bring an increase in
high clouds early in the day, and a low chance of rain showers or
thunderstorms close to western Lake Ontario and also across the
Saint Lawrence Valley.

The trough should encounter an area of better low level
convergence at the western end of Lake Ontario as southwesterly
winds up the Lake Erie basin meet more westerly winds along the
Niagara peninsula. Similar conditions of low level convergence and
the close proximity to the mid level trough will give a chance of
widely scattered convection across the Saint Lawrence Valley later
this afternoon. General subsidence across Western NY should
inhibit most, if not all, convection south of Lake Ontario this
afternoon.

Expect tempertures to again climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s
with a gusty west to southwest flow boosting highs potentially
into the mid-80s in the warmer valley locations. A Lake Erie lake
breeze will keep locations along the shoreline including downtown
Buffalo about 10-15 degrees cooler.

The surface high pressure and upper ridging pattern resume control
of the forecast area tonight. Higher dewpoint will help to hold the
low temperatures up a bit with lows in the mid 50s across the
eastern Lake Ontario counties and Southern Tier, and to the lower
60s for the lake plains and urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday a weak mid level trough will cross the region and
combine with a broad warm advection regime to provide weak large
scale ascent. Moisture and instability will continue to slowly
increase across the area, with MUCAPE approaching 1000J/kg by the
afternoon. The combination of large scale ascent and increasing
instability will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms,
developing first across western NY by late morning or midday, then
spreading east during the afternoon. The best coverage should be
found from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes and central NY,
with less coverage northeast of the lakes as stable lake shadows
develop. Even with the stable lake shadows, given the large scale
ascent it may not remain completely dry northeast of the lakes.

Expect highs to reach the lower 80s in most areas, with a few mid
80s readings possible from the warmer spots of the Genesee Valley
into central NY. A southwest flow will keep the Buffalo area and
Jefferson county shore a little cooler.

Thursday night the mid level wave pushes into eastern NY and New
England and diurnal instability diminishes. This should bring a
general west to east tapering off of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Overnight it will be mainly dry, although a few
spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms still cannot be ruled out
in the weak warm advection regime, especially if any convectively
generated vorticity maxima from upstream drift into the region. Lows
will be quite mild, with mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY.

Friday there will be little or no large scale ascent as the mid
level ridge builds strongly into the lower Great Lakes region.
Moderate instability will develop by afternoon, and this may support
widely scattered thunderstorms along and inland of the lake breeze
boundaries. 850mb temps rise to around +16C, which will support mid
80s in most areas with a few upper 80s possible from the Genesee
Valley to central NY.

Friday night scattered thunderstorms will slowly diminish in
coverage, with most areas becoming mainly dry after midnight. Expect
another very mild night with lows in the upper 60s on the lake
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An extended period of mid summer warmth and humidity will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. The heat will peak
over the weekend, with a modest pull back in temperatures early next
week. Most days will feature a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, but there will be plenty of rain free time as well.

A broad trough will remain in place over the west, with a strong
downstream ridge dominating the eastern half of the nation. High
pressure will take up residence off the southeast coast in the
classic Bermuda high location, allowing heat and humidity to pump
northward on persistent deep layer southwest flow.

The ridge will remain overhead Saturday and Sunday and prevent much
in the way of large scale ascent. Diurnal instability will support
widely scattered showers and storms each afternoon and evening,
especially along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. By late
Sunday and Monday there is some potential for an influx of Atlantic
moisture as well, associated with a weak system along the southeast
coast. A weak mid level trough will also cross the area Monday,
potentially increasing coverage and organization of showers and
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday both the GFS and ECMWF 00Z runs build high pressure into
the Great Lakes with a bubble of somewhat drier air, which will
reduce the potential for any convection.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue to prevail tonight as a
narrow ridge of high pressure moves overhead. An upper trough will
pass north of the forecast area and a weak surface trough will cross
the area, but dry air and general subsidence across Western NY
should preclude the development of showers or thunderstorms this
afternoon. There may be widely scattered convection this afternoon
across the Saint Lawrence Valley, closer to the upper trough and
farther from the center of subsidence over WNY.

Outlook...
Wednesday night...VFR with a slight chance of showers.
Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the lakes, continuing
fair weather with breezy westerly winds. Winds and waves will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although a few
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day from Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SMITH/WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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