Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR






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