Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300222
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH
WILL BECOME INCREASING NUMEROUS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
MORNING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND... BUT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WRAPPED UP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY
OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED THIS EVENING. THIS WAS WELL
FORECAST BY MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CATCH UP WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WITH THIS LIKELYTO
DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME IT
EXITS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT FORECASTING THIS TREND...WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS LINE THAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED
POPS/QPF...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
MOVE FROM THE GENESEE RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE HIGH OR MISS ACTIVITY WEST OF
THIS...WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALSO...TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS HAVE
NARROWED CONSIDERABLY E-SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HELP TO MIX DOWN
DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY... TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER... LAKE
PLAINS AND UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
STEP DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES... IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A LESS
HUMID DAY.

IN SUMMARY... MOST LOCATIONS MAY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE... BUT BY THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PARK ITSELF OVER HUDSON BAY BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL NW-SE
ORIENTED JET STREAKS POINTING AT WESTERN NY AND MOVING OFF TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RESULTANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.  NONE OF THE FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING TOGETHER WITH LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A PEAK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT MIXING AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ALTERNATING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FAIR WEATHER IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...HOWEVER TIMING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS
UNREALISTIC WITH MODELS DISPLAYING DISAGREEMENTS ON THE SPECIFIC
TIMING. THUS WILL STICK WITH GENERIC BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE ATLANTICCOASTLINE...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS...EXPECT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS RESULTED IN COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
ART...WITH A NARROWING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME RADIATION FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES ART THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SKIES SHOULD CLEAR PRETTY QUICKLY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
ANY CONVECTION...WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STIFF WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY... WHEN WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH



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