Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 151047
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge across the region today bringing cool but
drier weather for much of the area through Saturday. A cold front
will move through Saturday night, which will be followed by colder
weather along with some rain or snow showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front is slowly oozing through the region with some showers
near this boundary across the Southern Tier. There is also some fog
to contend with along the shores of Lake Erie from Ripley to
Buffalo. We could see some reduced visibilities down to a mile this
morning, especially if traveling on the I-90.

Low pressure will further depart east away from eastern Great Lakes
and then be found near Boston by mid-morning. With its departure we
will see most shower activity all but come to an end. The lone
exception will be across the North Country and St. Lawrence Valley.
A weak shortwave will re-introduce a few showers there by late this
afternoon and evening. Nothing of significance but couldn`t go with
a completely dry forecast(low end chances 30% or less).

Otherwise...a wealth of clouds will be found across much of the
Lower Lakes under northerly upslope flow. Subsidence from the
incoming high and drier air will bring about mainly dry weather for
much of the region. It will be cooler today with highs in the 40s to
low 50s.

Tonight...dry quiet weather and cooler with lows found in the 30s
for most locales across the CWA.

Saturday...surface high pressure will depart off to our east but
will likely maintain dry weather ahead of a cold front approaching
the eastern Great Lakes. High will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An anomalously deep...full latitude longwave trough will dig south
across the Great Lakes and the eastern half of the conus during this
period. This will set the stage for a late winter comeback of
sorts...as DAYTIME temperatures will drop to below normal levels
through at least mid week. The cold air will also support some
accumulating lake snows...particularly southeast of the lakes.

As for the details...a robust channelled shortwave rounding the base
of the aforementioned digging trough will push a strong cold front
through our region during the first half of Saturday night. Strong
low level convergence immediately ahead and along the sfc boundary
will be enhanced by lift under the left front exit region of a 130kt
UL jet to provide widespread showers. Will raise pops in continuity
to high likely-categorical. The pcpn will largely fall as rain...but
as the cold air in the wake of the front deepens...the residual
showers should transition to snow...esp across the higher terrain.
Its not out of the question that the wet snow across the higher
terrain could lead to a slushy coating on elevated and grassy
surfaces. Basin average rainfall will be around a tenth of an inch,
with up to 0.20" across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Tug Hill/western Dacks.

The passage of the cold front will open the door for the FIRST
airmass change...as H85 temps will lower to around -8c by the end of
Sunday. While weak sfc based ridging should keep the majority of the
day pcpn free for most areas...many guidance packages are suggesting
that a convergence zone becomes established from the IAG Frontier
eastward...in the vcnty of an elongated mid level shear zone (PV
anomaly). Will try to better refine the pop field that will
generally range from high chc/low likely in the morning to chc in
the afternoon. The bulk of the shower activity will be in the form
of liquid...but some wet snow will be possible across elevated
terrain. Otherwise...we can anticipate a fair amount of cloud cover
to accompany brisk westerly winds of up to 35 mph.

As the longwave trough digs southwards across the Great Lakes Sunday
night...the second...reinforcing cold front will take aim on our
region from Lake Huron and the Ottawa valley. While the bulk of the
region should be pcpn free...but a 270-280 flow across the lakes
could direct some lake snow across parts of the western Southern
Tier and in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. Continued cold advection will
allow H85 temps to drop to around -10c...so there should be at least
some response off the wide open lakes. The NBM is largely blind to
this scenario with only a semblance of the process shown by the
Superblend. Will thus use steering flow from the GFS and output from
the deterministic Canadian packages to handle this. Expect high
likely to categorical pops for the mentioned areas with several
inches of snow expected.

The second cold front of this period will drop southwards across the
forecast area on Monday. Have raised pops to likely for the western
counties...while high chc will be found across the North Country.
H85 temps in the vcnty of -10c will guarantee that all of the pcpn
will in the form of snow. Snow accums should be in the vcnty of an
inch or two...with somewhat higher amounts possible southeast of the
lakes in lake enhanced areas.

As the base of the longwave trough moves east of the forecast area
Monday night...our H85 temps will bottom out between -12 and -14c.
This will guarantee a lake response with west to northwest winds
dropping accumulating snows across parts of the Southern Tier as
well as on sites southeast of Lake Ontario. Mins will be solidly in
the 20s for the majority of the region  with teens for parts of the
North country.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A longwave trough will remain over the eastern half of North America
during this period...nearly guaranteeing that temperatures will stay
below normal.

As we open this period on Tuesday...a weak shortwave ridge will pass
through the region. This will significantly weaken the lake snows
that should be found southeast of the lakes with daytime
accumulations generally forecast to be an inch or less.

Guidance is not as clear Tuesday night into Thursday with the timing
of another robust shortwave that will reinforce the longwave
trough...thereby keeping the risk for scattered snow showers in
place. There is higher confidence for below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering showers and low cloudiness will produce MVFR-IFR conditons
across area terminals. There will also be some pockets of fog (KIAG)
in some areas this morning. A gradual improvement will occur by this
afternoon. This as drier air begins to arrive and surface high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Tonight...surface high pressure will bring VFR conditions to all
area TAF sites.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds will subside as high pressure builds into the region
today. There may still be some light to modest chop on the lakes but
wave action will greatly lessen by this afternoon. Light winds and
wave action will persist into Saturday before the next chance of
small craft conditions arrives on Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR


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