Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
253
FXUS61 KBUF 290905
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
505 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY CONCLUSION TO THE WEEK FOR MANY AREAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL DIVE ACROSS
LOWER MI AND WESTERN NY TODAY. PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY AND
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF PVA
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DRIER AND LAKE-STABILIZED AIR IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. MEANWHILE
THE NORTH COUNTRY, WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES TI REMAIN HIGH AND DRY TODAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUN BETWEEN HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL NOT BE SO PLEASANT AS ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DEPRESSED SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
NY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A RAPID EXIT THIS EVENING, TAKING
WITH IT ALL LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, YIELDING A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL BE COURTESY OF
SHALLOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE U50S/L60S
BEFORE TEMPS SLIDE BACK INTO THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS A SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE MIDWEST STATES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. NAEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE PWAT PLUME WILL BE NEAR +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL SO OFFICIAL QPF CALLS FOR 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY RUNNING CLOSER TO THE
0.25 INCH LEVEL. THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S THEN ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SOUTH THEN EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT SUNDAYS SHOWERS TO BE WARM ADVECTIVE AHEAD
OF THE LOW WITH ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEING FROM WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
SENT THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FORCING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO
START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. ANOTHER MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH WEAK RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST TO NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SHORT RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

A BROAD AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO DIG SOUTH
OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF EVEN CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY TIME DURING THIS PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES SO DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
THE CIRCULATION OF COOLER AIR WITHIN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT WITH NO THREAT
FOR FROST/FREEZE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT HAS LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR. EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST FROM MICHIGAN WILL BRING
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 18Z ONWARDS AND PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KBUF-KSYR LINE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KIAG/KROC. OTHERWISE, EVEN WITH THE
SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN NEAR THE PA BORDER.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN
FROM WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 15KTS IN
PLACE ON THE LAKES INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO FLOW
WILL KEEP WAVES CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST, TAKING THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT, AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM CANADA. THE RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MIDWEST BRINGS A RETURN TO
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.