Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE EXITING INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES BENEATH
PATCHY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
INLAND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKESHORES...WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE SHOULD GUST TO 20 MPH IN
SPOTS. ANY RADAR RETURNS ARE LIKELY VIRGA GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/SREF/GFS) IS FAIRLY
CLOSE IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER TROF...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT
BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS...FIRST ENTERING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK...THEN
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND NOON BEFORE EXITING EAST
OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH STILL SUGGESTS
THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

CLOUDS AND INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PULL
STEADILY OFF TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PASSAGE OF MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE WILL TARGET FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONTINUED LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF THE REGION WILL
USHER IN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COLDER SIDE
OF THE TYPICAL MID APRIL SPECTRUM DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. DIURNALLY ENHANCED DAYTIME
CU/STRATO CU ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BUILD A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALL 00/12Z MODEL PACKAGES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON FRIDAY BEING REPLACED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TROUGHINESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATE WEEK RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BACK UP TO NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTERS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LEADING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MID OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
WESTERN NY BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LOWS WILL STILL DIP INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A NOW SLOWER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
COOL AIR WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP REINFORCING COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
MAY DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND HILLTOPS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES LOWERING TO MVFR FOR 3 TO 6
HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
AT JHW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXIT OF THE FRONT...WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS LINGERING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL WINDS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







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