Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220652

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A slow moving low pressure system will move east toward the New
England Coast tonight and then north to northern Maine by
Saturday evening. The widespread rainfall associated with this
feature will move slowly east tonight and Saturday. This will
result in a slow drying trend for far Western New York while
Central New York continues to see additional rainfall through
Saturday. As the low moves east Saturday night, some higher
elevation areas east of Lake Ontario may see a light coating of
snow before the system finally fully moves out of the region.


The steady rain of the last 24 hours is finally beginning to taper
off across Western New York as the main deformation zone has shifted
into eastern New York and the elongated upper level low has moved
overhead. However, with much of the forecast area now under cool
northerly low level flow off of the lakes and plenty of wrap-around
moisture still lingering, we are still seeing areas of light
rainfall across western New York.

Expect this area of precip to continue to gradually shift to the
east through the rest of tonight and during the day on Saturday.
With winds shifting to the northwest and 850 mb temps falling below
0C, expect lake enhancement to prolong steadier precipitation
southeast of Lake Ontario, from Wayne County eastwards, with light
rain tied to the deformation zone persisting across the North
Country as well. To the west, this same cool northwesterly flow and
lingering low level moisture will also generate a response off the
lakes, however with a shorter fetch to work with and very dry air
above 850mb, this response will be mainly in the form of lingering
cloud cover throughout the day, along with areas of drizzle.

The cold air advection, along with a sharpening pressure gradient
between high pressure over the central Great Lakes and deepening low
pressure along the New England coast will result in increasingly
breezy conditions Saturday, with winds gusting up to 35 mph...
particularly near Lake Ontario and across higher elevations. The
abundant cloud cover, coupled with weak cold advection, means that
temperatures will climb little from morning lows around 40. Expect
temperatures to only top out in the low to mid 40s.


Saturday night a deepening surface low will be found over northern
New England, with the surface forecasted to deepen to sub 980 mb
through the night as it moves to southern Quebec by Sunday morning.
Driving this deep surface low that will approach -4 SD below October
normals will be an upper level trough of low pressure centered over
Southern New England, with PV on the 1.5 level dropping to near 700

The position of this low will result in a northwest flow across our
region Saturday night. Within the trough of low pressure 850 hPa
temperatures will drop to several degrees below zero celsius, and
near -6C over the Tug Hill region. This flow will maintain both
light synoptic as well as lake effect rain showers through the
night. The pool of cold air passing the Tug Hill will likely chance
the rain showers over to snow showers, with perhaps an inch of
accumulation by Sunday morning. Any lake effect activity will most
likely be from Lake Ontario, with a slightly longer fetch than
Erie within the Northwest flow.

The deep surface low will also create a tight pressure gradient
over the Eastern Great Lakes region Saturday night. Combined with
the cold air advection brisk northwest winds will maintain speeds
of 10 to 25 mph through the night, and possibly reach 30 mph along
the Southern Lake Ontario shoreline. Here is where gusts may reach
45 mph or so.

By Sunday the surface low will be advancing farther into eastern
Canada, while beginning to fill...which will relax the pressure
gradient over our region. This will make for a less windy day
Sunday and with slight warm air advection ahead of the next
shortwave we should see a decrease in lake effect showers. There
may still linger a few showers, especially Sunday morning, but
largely we should see some improvements, with some sunshine
possible outside of lake effect bands. The break will be short-lived
as another shortwave dropping across the Great Lakes region reaches
us Sunday night. This will again increase the lake effect response,
with both lake effect as well as orographic lift contributing to
precipitation chances. Will have a chance for precipitation over much
of the region, with highest chances to the SE and E of the Eastern
Great Lakes.

Behind this shortwave, the upper level trough of low pressure that
lingered over eastern Canada will begin to drop southwestward back
to over our region. As moisture increases in the lower levels, and
cooler air aloft returns we should see a redevelopment in
lake effect rain showers to the SE of the Eastern Great Lakes Monday
and into Monday night.

The cool air aloft will bring more typical autumn temperatures this
period. High Sunday may reach into the upper 50s across WNY, but
remain only in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region which will lie closer to the lingering cool pool
aloft. Monday as the upper level low drops southward, bringing a
cooling atmosphere highs will remain only in the upper 40s to lower
50s which will be a degree or so below late October normal. Lows at
night will range from the low to mid 30s across interior portions
of the Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario region to lower 40s
across the Lake Plains.


We can anticipate a slow moderation in temperature during this a modified Canadian airmass will give way to a Pacific
dominated temperature regime. This negligible warm up will be
accompanied by mainly fair weather through Wednesday...then
conditions will deteriorate as a storm will make its way out of the
nations section. Some day to day details...

A chilly northwest flow found between an exiting storm system over
the Canadian Maritimes and expansive high pressure over central
Canada will encourage some instability over Lakes Erie and Ontario
on Tuesday...but given the general lack of synoptic moisture and
relatively low subsidence cap (inversion)...any lake response will
be meager at best. Will carry slgt chc pops southeast of Lake
Ontario for the time being...while the remainder of the region will
be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure centered over Canada will extend southeast across the
Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will support
fair dry weather with temperatures within a few degrees of normal.
Meanwhile...a Pacific shortwave crossing the Rockies will start the
process of cyclogenesis over the Central Plains.

Our weather will start to deteriorate Wednesday night as a
consolidating area of low pressure will push across the Upper Mid
West. A tightening H925-7 thermal gradient will develop over the
Lower Great Lakes in response of this scenario...with increased
cloud coverage spreading over our forecast area. As the night
matures...there will also be the chance for some rain showers over
the western counties.

On Thursday and Thursday night...the area of low pressure is
forecast to pass by to the west of our forecast area. Deepening
moisture on the warm side of the passing system will be lifted over
the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will be over our area during
the day Thursday...and this will lead to some showers over the
entire region. These showers will persist Thursday night with the
passing of the associated cold front.

While the majority of the forecast area should experience pcpn free
conditions on Friday...will keep chc pops in place to account for
the supporting negatively tilted trough that will be in the process
of pushing out of the area.

Temperatures both Thursday and Friday should top out in the low to
mid 50s.


Cold air advection on northwesterly flow will continue to generate
MVFR cigs across the forecast area through the rest of tonight and
Saturday, with IFR conditions likely to persist across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country. Expect gradual
improvement across Western New York after 20Z-00Z, as deeper low
level moisture begins to shift away to the east.


Sunday...MVFR/VFR. A chance for rain showers SE of the lakes.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.


An area of low pressure will move from PA to the New England
Coast, then merge with a coastal low and move north to ME. Behind
this surface low a northwest, cool flow will cross the Great
Lakes, slowly strengthening with time. Winds will near or
exceed gale force on Lake Ontario Saturday night.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ042-045.



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