Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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717
FXUS61 KBUF 190312
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AIR WILL POUR ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WAS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS A MOISTURE
RICH AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.75 INCHES SUPPORTED SOME
FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE.

A MESO-CYCLONE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC BASED BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN
TIER...AND THIS FEATURE WORKED ITS WAY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. THIS STORM
PRODUCED ENOUGH WIND TO BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

THE STORMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING HAVE
SINCE PUSHED AWAY TO THE EAST. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS NOW STARTING
TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION IS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE ONLY SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...H85 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE DOUBLE DIGITS TO
BETWEEN 2 AND 4C BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NY WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING...
BEFORE DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RECOVER A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
AND THUS SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY THERE BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING EARLY DAY
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND TURNING
SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -4C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE FROST RISK LOOKS LIMITED FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS AS
THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT AND THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER.

SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY...
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT CHANCES OF
FROST FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS IF WINDS CAN DROP OFF ENOUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL A COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRIER BUT COOLER AIR
MASS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...SOME STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE SITES SUCH AS KJHW AND KELZ...
WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND WAVE ACTION INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE
NEARSHORES COVERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH LOW WIND AND WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH/RSH
MARINE...CHURCH



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