Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 162010
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide our region with beautiful weather this
weekend...including summerlike temperatures with highs averaging out
within a few degrees of 80 each day. While there will be a minimal
chance for showers across the Southern Tier on Monday...fair dry
weather with above normal temperatures will persist through next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stacked high pressure will remain anchored over the Lower Great
Lakes through the weekend. This will provide pleasant dry weather
with temperatures that will average well above normal. As for some
details...

Plenty of sunshine will be found across western and north central
New York for the remainder of the afternoon...but it will be
filtered by some smoke in a layer around 10k ft (thanks KBUF Tower).
This smoke is trapped within the stacked anticyclone...and cutoff
from its wildfire source over the Pacific Northwest-western Canada.
This smoke was quite evident on Vis imagery earlier this morning
during the time of low sun angle...but is now more recognizable by
the haziness to the sky.

In any case...it will be warm this afternoon. H85 temps in the vcnty
of 13c will easily support max temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
These readings will be some 10 deg f above typical mid September
temperatures.

After a spectacular sunset this evening (enhanced by the previously
discussed elevated smoke)...diurnal cu will give way to mainly clear
skies. Cannot go as far as to highlight the starlit nature of the
night (thank you smoke)...although it will be a great night for
outdoor activities. The favorable radiational cooling will once
again lead to some valley fog...mainly across the Southern Tier and
in the Thousand Islands region. Mins will range from the lower 60s
along the lake shores to the mid 50s across the North Country and in
the Srn Tier valleys.

While high pressure will remain intact across the region for
Sunday...there is a continued suggestion by several of the guidance
packages that a return flow of Atlantic moisture between the base of
the sfc high and the easterly flow well in advance of Hurricane Jose
will direct increased low level moisture across southern New York.
This increased moisture will combine with late season diurnal
heating to at least present the potential for some nuisance showers
over the Southern Tier. A subsidence cap should still be in place
arnd 10k ft though...so am skeptical that we will see more than an
increase in cloud cover. Will hold onto low chc pops for now and
await fresh guidance.

Nevertheless...Sunday will be yet another warm day across our
region. Given a warmer start to the morning and slightly higher
temps at H85...a larger portion of our forecast area should
experience highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be well east of the region by Sunday night while
a weak frontal boundary will be moving east through the Western and
Central Great Lakes region.  This front, together with local lake
breeze boundaries, should be able to touch off some convection by
Monday afternoon, with better chances for wetting rains well inland
in the Southern Tier and/or toward the Finger Lakes regions.  With a
continued light wind profile, any developing storms may be slow to
move with some locally heavy rain possible.  Will have to see if
higher res models agree when they are able capture Monday Afternoon.
Tuesday should be drier, but isolated to scattered showers may
develop in the afternoon with the continued relatively moist
airmass.

Otherwise expect continued temperatures to hover 5-10F above normal
for this time of year, with highs mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows
will bottom out in the 50s, though possibly remain around 60F closer
to the lake shores.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High amplitude ridging is expected to build over the eastern CONUS
through the period, as Jose is forecast to track near or just off
the New England coastline on the eastern periphery of the ridge.
Forecast 500 mb heights are rather impressive for this time of year
with temperatures expected to run well above normal. Daily high
temperatures should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, with the
warmest temperatures expected late in the week. Some instability
will develop each afternoon, but the area should be capped with
warm temperatures aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While stationary high pressure over the region will provide fine...
VFR weather for flying for this TAF period...there will be some
problem spots.

As we push through this evening into the overnight hours...fog will
once again develop in the valleys of the Southern Tier and also in
the Thousand Islands region. This will once again impact KJHW...
KELZ and likely KART.

By mid morning on Sunday though...all of the forecast area should
once again be dealing with VFR conditions. There will be more Cu
around during the midday and afternoon than the past few days...
but fair weather will persist.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR...but with IFR to MVFR
conditions possible each night (08-12z) at KJHW.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be stacked over the Lower Great Lakes through the
weekend and into next week. The resulting weak surface pressure
gradient will result in nearly ideal conditions for recreational
boating as winds will be light and waves will be negligible.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



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