Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 051815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL EXIT OFF THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD POSSIBLY FUELING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SMOKE FROM THE ALASKA AND CANADA WILD FIRES IS CONTINUING TO OBSCURE
WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A BLUE BIRD DAY ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF
THE HAZY SKIES...SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF THE TUG
HILL. OTHERWISE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KY/VA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS STILL EXPECTED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEARING +16C.  EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO MID 80S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SLIGHTER COOLER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAYBE A CONTINUED MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND A VERY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SET UP A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL BRING A COUPLE DAYS OF MID-SUMMERS
HEAT AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE 80S...WITH LAKE BREEZES AND DOWNSLOPING DRIVING TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DELAY THE LAKE BREEZE IN
BUFFALO MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-90 DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. ON TUESDAY A STRONGER SSW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
EARLIER LAKE BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WHILE TEMPERATURES PUSH 90 ACROSS THE LOWER GENESEE
VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT. DEW POINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY RESULTING IN RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
THIS MAY BRING IN MOISTURE AND A FEW DIURNALLY AIDED SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT QPF
WITH THIS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ROCHESTER. LAKE BREEZES MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS WILL MOVE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL COME LATE TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER
WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY EVENING. WITH BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE FAIRLY MODEST. GUIDANCE GENERALLY FORECASTS 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS...WITH LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS IS
A MARGINAL WIND FIELD FOR PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
IT CAN RESULT IN A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OR PULSE STORMS WHEN AMPLE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. SPC HAS OUR ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.

IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST FOR THE AREA. IF THIS
VERIFIES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. IN EACH CASE...THE POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS A WEAK AREA OF CONVECTION
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL...AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD SEE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR FROM A
WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
AND HAZY SKIES INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...EXPECT A FEW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START TO BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS WNY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH
WAVES RISING A FOOT OR TWO ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE
EXPECT FLAT WAVE ACTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR



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