Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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756
FXUS61 KBUF 072045
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
FREQUENT...BUT LARGELY INCONSEQUENTIAL SNOWS UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
KEEPS COOLER AIR TRAPPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE REGION DRY OVERNIGHT WITH NO REAL SOURCE
OF FORCING TO BE FOUND. A MODEST SE FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. THE FORECAST LOWERS CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUDS/WINDS WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR THE MOST PART...MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH OUR REGION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BETWEEN MULTIPLE SYSTEM. THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE TOO FAR TO
THE EAST TO BRING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LIGHT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE PRECIPITATION FROM A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD ENTER FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
SLOWER...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY NARROW SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS IN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS DESPITE THIS TREND. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO DO A BETTER JOB DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN MULTIPLE SOURCES OF
LIFT WHICH WILL VIRTUALLY SURROUND OUR REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY START OFF AS RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GO THROUGH A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW OPENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
THE SURFACE LOW FILLS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS A SECONDARY COASTAL
LOW FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SCOOTS OFF QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A WARM TROUGH OVER NEW YORK STATE AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS
MEANS THAT THE REGION WILL LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AS THE COASTAL
LOW TAKES OVER AND COLDER AND DRIER IR AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN THE COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S FALLING TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ON
WEDNESDAY... AND THEN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY COLD TEMP ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS...CONTINUING THE HYBRID OF
SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE FILLS AD DISSIPATES...LEAVING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE
TO DROP TO AROUND -20C.

WHAT REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...IS A PERSISTENT DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH A STREAM OF COLD AIR AT SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE LAKES...-
PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. IT IS MUCH TO
FAR IN TIME TO SAY WHERE ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE LAKE SNOW MIGHT
BE ESPECIALLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS COULD VERY LIKELY
BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR...THE WINTER SEASON...BUT MAY BE
A SHORT LIVED COLD SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 20Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF
LOWER CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 3K FT ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THESE GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH. THIS LOWER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
ART TERMINAL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASES WILL BE WELL INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGING WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
LAKE ONTARIO LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BUILD WAVES ON
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THE LARGEST WAVES WILL BE IN CANADIAN
WATERS...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE WAVES MAY BUILD TO 5 FT WEST OF
HAMLIN BEACH ON LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW FORECAST.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL



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