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000
FXUS61 KBUF 160300
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO LINGERING STRATO-CU BETWEEN KROC AND KSYR WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO ABOUT DAYBREAK.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20. THESE SUB FREEZING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF BLACK ICE. WE HAVE RECEIVED
VERIFICATION ON THIS RISK FROM ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE REGION. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

SPEAKING OF LOW TEMPERATURES...RECORD LOWS FOR THE UPCOMING MORNING
(APRIL 16TH) INCLUDE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT KART. ALL
OF THESE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS...AND AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ROC EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWER WILL BE FOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FELL MONDAY NIGHT AND EQARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT THE MAIN
CAUSE FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT. RELATIVELY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL