Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID LABOR DAY WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW LOW
STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY...LAKE ONTARIO...CENTRAL NY
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE IS A NOTABLE HOLE IN THE STRATUS FROM
JUST EAST OF KBUF AND KIAG EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES WHERE SUNSHINE DOMINATES THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOW
STRATUS TO LAST INTO MID MORNING WHERE IT IS FOUND NOW BEFORE MIXING
OUT WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING. THE INVERSION IS
WEAK...SO THE STRATUS LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS CLEARING MID MORNING AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING
OR MIDDAY. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL...BUT LOW LEVEL PROFILES
SEEM TO SUPPORT STRATUS OVER FOG WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

OUR REGION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINING
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING JUST
A VERY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE...SEPARATING ENHANCED FLOW CHANNELING DOWN THE LAKE AND WEAKER
WINDS INLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1500J/KG
OF SBCAPE...ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME CINH IN THE
PROFILE. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ORGANIZE LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE MID LEVEL CAP. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE DRAWN A CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE ROCHESTER AREA. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE BUFFALO AREA...WITH A SSW FLOW
OFF THE LAKE LIKELY KEEPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER DRY. FARTHER EAST THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY AND NO TRIGGER.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...AND AROUND 80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS EVENING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NY LATE...WITH A LEAD CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TONIGHT...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY
RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
AROUND -3C...OR EVEN A BIT LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-35KT...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS I`D
LIKE TO SEE FOR BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL. KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL
CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THIS
MAY BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOWN IN BUFKIT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE MAY SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE
WISE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH NEW YORK STATE DURING
THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...NOT MOVING IT COMPLETELY THROUGH
THE STATE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...USHERING IN A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. EXPECT A WARM
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. EXPECT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE A BIT COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A MUCH COOLER DRIER AND
AIRMASS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY
REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE STRATUS FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY
AND THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALSO IN CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. CIGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL WITH LOCAL IFR
VSBY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND
LIFTING BY MIDDAY.

A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
VFR. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR KJHW TO KROC.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TODAY WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS AND WAVES JUST SHY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN
TO LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




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