Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 250502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL DROP WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
UPDATE. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WERE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPEST
INTRUSION OF THE 1.5PVU STRATOSPHERIC LAYER. THE LACK OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ALOFT HELD THE HIGHER WINDS JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NY FELL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF
WARNING SPEEDS BUT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES DOWN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PACK SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD






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