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000
FXUS61 KBUF 050336
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
SOME MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LIGHT SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING HAS LARGELY ENDED AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE HAS
MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS -18 TO -20C 850MB TEMPS SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE IN RESPONSE TO
A POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE AT LEAST A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE...WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING VERY DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR...WEAK LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OVER
CANADA...AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NONETHELESS...AREAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER AS NORTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATE
READINGS THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RUNNING FROM THE LOW
TEENS NEAR THE LAKES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS THE ONSHORE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST EVEN AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM HUDSON BAY WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNEVENTFUL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SPLIT FLOW...RELATIVELY LOW IN
AMPLITUDE...WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF 60N. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS THE LOWER 48 SO THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS POINT IN MARCH ARE NEAR 40.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
ANY WEAK...DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL QUICKLY SHUT DOWN AS A CRASHING CAP WILL BE FOUND
WITHIN A VEERING OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH (IE. LIGHT WINDS)...
THIS WILL SET THE TABLE FOR ONE MORE VERY COLD NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL EASE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION...
ALTHOUGH SOME ALTO-CU PRODUCED BY THE WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE
RETURN FLOW COULD BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THOUGH...THAT IS PROBABLY
GETTING TOO CUTE WITH THE FORECAST AS THE DAY WILL BE A NICE ONE
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF 30.

THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE STILL NOSING BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
NOT ONLY PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER BUT SHOULD HELP TO HOLD MIN TEMPS SOME
10 TO 15 DEG HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND JUST SOUTH OF
OUR REGION WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING VIA THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US IN A WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN...SO PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
ELEVATING OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
(MID 30S EAST OF LK ONTARIO).

A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS A BIT GIVEN
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WILL GO WITH
FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A 80-100KT H25 JET RACING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
KEEPING FRIGID AIR LOCKED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER
48...PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MILDER
WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS...BUT THE PASSAGE OF TWO SHALLOW COLD
FRONTS SHOULD KEEP OUR MERCURY FROM CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. BY
THE END OF THIS PERIOD...TWO WEEKS WILL HAVE PASSED SINCE OUR LAST
DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...OUR STRETCH OF
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
COULD SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A DUSTING
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
NOSES FURTHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT A LACK OF FORCING WILL ONLY
WARRANT SLGT CHC POPS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS EASTERN CANADA ON
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIR DRY WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER
09Z...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT KROC. THAT SAID...LAKE INFLUENCES AND FLOW ARE WEAK AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING THE TAF VFR FOR THE TIME
BEING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP VFR CIGS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A
MINOR LAKE RESPONSE OVER LAKE ONTARIO LASTING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...ZAFF