Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 041933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL MONDAY BEFORE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM ALLEGANY COUNTY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE TUG HILL REGION. OBJECTIVE
RUC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS 500-1000J/KG OF SBCAPE AVAILABLE IN THIS
AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE DRIFTS EAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF WESTERN NY ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AT AROUND 5K FEET WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TREND SKIES FROM MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A RETURN TO SUNSHINE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODIFY AND WARM UNDER THE LONG HOURS OF EARLY SUMMER DAYLIGHT...SO
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S ON THE HILLS AND
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO +16 TO +18C WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
SINCE MAY... ALSO AIDED BY THE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW... WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM SPOT NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL ACROSS FAR WNY LATER MONDAY...AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT /WITHIN A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/ WILL DROP
ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
REMAINING AT ONLY 70F FOR A LOW.

ON TUESDAY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL STEER A MID-LEVEL WAVE OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND +16 TO +18C... ANTICIPATE THAT INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE WAVE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA... EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE RATHER SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED. SOME WEAK CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN WAVES MAY PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA... ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK INTO TUESDAY EVENING... AND THUS EXPECT THAT THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE RATHER LOW.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S... WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER STALLING OUT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THUS SOME SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY... THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL... AS VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD
SEE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... THE WEEKEND LOOKS FAR
FROM A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KJHW AFTER 06Z. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL RIVER
VALLEYS EAST OF KJHW WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM 06Z-12Z. ON SUNDAY ANY
LINGERING FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT ALL TAF SITES WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...WITH
LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...AR/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...AR/HITCHCOCK


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