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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280617
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NYS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION ON EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS TONIGHT SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
CELLS WILL BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. WESTERN NY IS NOW IN A
BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN TO PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS DEFORMATION AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...GIVING MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES+ ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING CELLS...AS WELL AS SOME AREAS NOT TOPPING THE ONE INCH MARK
DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON.

BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW MONDAY MORNING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL
TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z HEAVIEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER
ACTIVITY WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHEN THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE KROC TERMINAL...THEN LATE TONIGHT AT KART.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO
THE KIAG AND KBUF TERMINALS. EXPECT KJHW TO NOT BE FAR BEHIND. WINDS
ARE CALM THERE NOW...BUT COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ENSUE THERE
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/JM/THOMAS