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000
FXUS61 KBUF 222349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RAIN WILL END FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 2330Z. A BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON KBUF RADAR IMAGERY MOVING
JUST EAST OF BUFFALO NOW. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS
ON THIS FEATURE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY END ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK
STORMS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MAY SURVIVE THE TRIP
AND BRING A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE.

FOR TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ
CARRIES NORTHWARD EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.

FOR TOMORROW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK STATE.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CWA WILL BE FOUND...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL STILL TO THE WEST.

COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING...THEN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM KIAG-KBUF-KJHW
AT 2330Z WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH
WITH EASTERN EXTENT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE
LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE A FEW MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM
OVER OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY FROM LATE
EVENING ON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE
RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A DROP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKES ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVES HEIGHTS ON BOTH LAKES...THOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FOOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS PEAK...POSSIBLY
AT THE 4 FOOT MARK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS