Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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037
FXUS61 KBUF 231419
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1019 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today and remain through
Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures.
Summer like warmth and increased humidity will arrive for the second
half of the week. There will be a chance of a few scattered
thunderstorms each day from Wednesday through next weekend, but
expect plenty of rain free time as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid level closed low over Virginia this morning will meander to
the east and off the Delmarva coast this afternoon. Moisture
associated with the mid level circulation will continue to pull
away from our region as high pressure surface and aloft along with
associated subsidence builds into the central Great Lakes. Clear
skies area-wide will replaced by some inland cumulus, with lake
shadows from a northwest flow.

850mb temps around +10C will support highs in the mid to upper 70s
at lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with lower 70s on the
hills. Northwest flow will keep the lakeshores cooler, with highs in
the lower 60s within a few miles of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tonight the mid level closed low off the Mid Atlantic will move
north to near the eastern tip of Long Island by 12Z Tuesday. The
circulation and associated deep moisture will remain well east of
our area, with just a few mid/high clouds reaching as far west as
central NY and the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Elsewhere skies will
be clear as surface high pressure builds into the lower lakes. The
clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling,
with lows in the lower 50s on the lake plains and mid 40s in the
cooler Southern Tier Valleys and Eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A closed upper-level low will drift up the Atlantic coast Tuesday
while surface and upper level ridging builds in across western New
York. Temperatures will continue to moderate with the departure of
the closed low, as 850 mb temperatures push to about +12C, which
will allow for highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Made sure
forecast temperatures remain on the high side of the consensus
guidance with the dry airmass in place. Typical lake breezes will be
established by the afternoon, promoting highs in the 60s along the
lake shores. High pressure and subsidence through the column will
bring mostly to just plain sunny skies across the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave will move from western to
southeastern Ontario, flattening out the riding aloft and forcing a
weak frontal boundary across the forecast area. The most dynamic
forcing with the wave will track through the North Country
Wednesday, but showers will also organize along the frontal boundary
being forced through WNY and the northern Finger Lakes. Expect a
broken line of showers to cross the region from NW early Wednesday
morning to SE Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon, diurnal
heating may be enough to generate some limited instability across
the interior western Southern Tier and interior portions of the
North Country. Thus showers and thunderstorms may become more
widespread as the boundary pushes southeastward during the day.
Locations near the lakes will likely see improving conditions into
the afternoon as the front pushes SE, as well as stabilizing
influences from Lakes Erie and Ontario. 850MB temperatures of +12C
on Wednesday morning will present afternoon high temperatures in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, and continued warmth in the boundary layer and
higher dewpoints will result in overnight low temperatures in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday night should feature some quiet
weather as any diurnally boosted showers die out behind the passing
wave.

By Thursday, ridging will be solidly in place across the eastern
CONUS, however, shortwaves and convective remnants will eject from
the plains toward the Great Lakes. This will possibly bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures will
continuing the warming trend as the ridge axis shifts to our east.
Highs will push to the upper 70s to lower 80s, despite some cloud
cover and shower chances, as 850 mb temps increase to about +14 C.
Showers should slowly diminish Thursday night with loss of daytime
heating, but the lingering cloud cover and increasingly warm and
moist airmass will keep overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summer-like weather is on the way, just in time for Memorial Day
weekend, complete with increasing humidity and daily chances for
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The overall pattern will evolve with the forecast area located near
the northern periphery of a large scale ridging centered just off
the mid-Atlantic coast. The placement of the ridge will not only
allow a steady feed of warm and moist air into the region, but will
also supply numerous shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge as
forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms especially during
peak diurnal heating. Otherwise hard to pinpoint which day may
feature highest chances for convection...and thus will have just
chance PoPs through the day time and early evening hours.
Greatest chances will be the inland lake breezes over the northern
Niagara Frontier and hilly region east of Lake Erie...and higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario.

At 500 hPa heights will slowly increase through the long term
period...and at 850 hPa...air temperatures will range from +14 to
+17c through the period. Warmest 850 hPa temperatures will come
Saturday...during the peak height of the upper level ridge. The
southerly flow will also build the humidity through this period with
uncomfortable levels reached by the end of the week. Dewpoints will
reach to around 60F to the lower 60s. Air temperatures will likely
increase a degree each day...as 500 hPa heights slowly increase.
Afternoon highs will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Would
not rule out some mid-80s by the weekend for the Genesee Valley and
for lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. There will not be much
airflow under the ridge...but a SW wind will likely develop each
day...keeping the City of Buffalo a few degrees cooler...with the
cooling extending out to near the airport. Along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline...and then the western Saint Lawrence Valley...air
temperature will be a few degrees cooler owing to the still cool
eastern Great Lakes. Overnight lows will drop back into the lower
60s...and with a similar airmass all four nights should have similar
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected area-wide as high pressure moves slowly
south into the central Great Lakes region. Some lingering low
level moisture will allow cumulus to develop by midday across the
higher terrain well inland from the lakes, with scattered bases
around 5k feet. The lake plains will remain SKC with stable lake
shadows pushing inland on northwest flow. Skies will be clear
tonight with high pressure surface and aloft.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes today before
reaching the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will maintain
light winds and flat wave action for the next few days. Relatively
light winds will continue through the end of the week, although a
few scattered thunderstorms each day from Wednesday through next
weekend may produce locally higher winds and waves at times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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