Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
748 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
WITH A LOW CHANCE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WELL INLAND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
AT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND FROM THE
LAKES. MODEL FORECAST SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WOULD FUEL ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDRYS OR IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE SOME SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEY FOG. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE U50S/60S AND A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL AGAIN KEEP MILD TEMPS TONIGHT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF SUMMER HEAT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BEFORE ARRIVING OVER THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED FORM. THE END
RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER TO START THE WEEK
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER EVEN
THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE AS THE BULK OF ANY
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EDGES STEADILY CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WILL EDGE UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY. BY THE TIME WE REACH
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS 850 MB
TEMPS PUSH THE +20C MARK. PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND THE HILLTOPS ON THE
COOLER END OF THE ABOVE RANGES WHILE THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN...WHERE DOWNSLOPING
WILL YIELD READINGS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE RANGES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP A STEADY FLOW OF MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIR OUT OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION..KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MAKING IT QUITE MUGGY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THE NIGHTS BALMY DURING THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. INDEED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY DROPPING BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS
A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MARCH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
RESULTING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND MARKING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE GARDEN VARIETY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AT BEST.

A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH COOL AIR ALOFT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...THOUGH EVEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LARGELY DRY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SETTLES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE REGION ON LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH THEY WILL STAY
SEASONABLE FOR LATE JULY AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONSIST OF
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR. THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY RUN
CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD AS READINGS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NIGHTS WILL BE MORE
COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE
LAKES TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKE REGION TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN THE KJHW TAF BUT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES KEEPING VFR EXCEPT AT KJHW WHERE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH


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