Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 152231
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
631 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a few lingering showers through this evening, then
high pressure will ridge into the area providing rain-free
weather late tonight into Saturday. A cold front will move
through Saturday night, which will be followed by cooler
weather along with some rain or snow showers. A colder and more
wintry weather pattern will become established the first half of
next week with daytime highs in the 30s and lake effect snow
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A passing shortwave will bring the likelihood of some showers to the
Saint Lawrence Valley and North Country this evening...with a few
more widely scattered showers or light sprinkles possible as far
back as western New York...where the forecast has been adjusted to
account for this.

A weak mid-level ridge and surface high pressure ridging from the
Ohio Valley will then provide rain-free weather from later on
tonight into Saturday. If skies clear out, patchy fog is possible in
the Southern Tier valleys later on tonight. Lows will be mostly in
the lower to mid 30s.

It will turn breezy on Saturday due to a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of an approaching cold front. Any showers should hold
off until after sunset, but clouds will fill back in following some
breaks of sunshine in the morning. It will be warmer with highs in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A nearly stacked area of low pressure over northern Ontario Saturday
evening will move into central Quebec by Sunday morning. The first
of a few cold fronts associated with this low will be on our door
step Saturday evening. Surface convergence will combine with the
left exit region of an upper level jet and approaching shortwave
trough. Rain showers will develop along the front as it moves into
western NY with good agreement that rain showers will move east and
into north central and central NY overnight. Rainfall amounts have
increased slightly especially across the higher terrain of western
and north central NY. Overall, up to 0.25 inches with 0.25-0.50
inches across the higher terrain. Cold air advection will be modest
within a 260-270 flow behind the front and temperatures will become
cold enough for showers to transition to wet snow at higher
elevations by Sunday morning. Low temperatures will fall to low to
mid 30s across the higher terrain, mid to upper 30s across the lake
plains.

Cold air advection will continue Sunday with 850mb temperatures
falling to -7C by Sunday afternoon. Westerly winds will ramp up with
wind gusts around 25-35 mph by afternoon. Daytime heating and cold
air aloft will lead to rain and snow showers developing across the
region. Higher resolution models are highlighting an area of
convergence from the Niagara Frontier to the western Finger Lakes
region. This region has the greater chance of seeing rain and snow
showers with the chance for some graupel. Due to the time of day,
little to no snow accumulation is expected. High temperatures will
reach the upper 30s to low 40s.

The second cold front will approach the eastern great Lakes region
Sunday night. Initially, cold air advection will weaken with any
showers from Sunday afternoon diminishing and moving east.
Temperatures at 850mb enter levels marginal for lake effect, however
it`s not until late Sunday night when moisture and surface
convergence increase ahead of the front. Lake effect bands will form
along the cold front and move east of the Lakes Monday morning. The
front will move through the region quickly so lake effect snow
showers will quickly move south before setting up under northwest
flow into Monday night. Similar to Sunday, cold air aloft and
daytime heating will lead to instability snow showers across the
entire region with lake enhanced snow bands southeast of the Lakes.
High temperatures will reach the low 30s across the higher terrain
to the mid to upper 30s across the lake plains. Accumulating snow is
possible Monday however it will be mainly confined to the higher
terrain that have residence time with any snow showers, namely the
Tug Hill and hills south of Buffalo. Forecast snow totals of 1-3
inches are possible in these areas.

A robust shortwave trough will dive south across the region Monday
night and may reinvigorate lake effect snow showers east-southeast
of the Lakes. There is disagreement with an approaching surface high
to the southwest and confidence in band placement and strengthen is
lacking at this time. Chilly Monday night with lows in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A wintry `feel` to the air as we open the period with an amplified
pattern (western ridge/eastern trough) in place across the CONUS.
This deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast will
lift out heading into mid week, although a broad northwesterly flow
regime will remain in place through around Thursday. A trend toward
a more quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS sets up toward the end of
the period allowing temperatures to increase back toward average to
close out the work week.

Main upper level trough axis will be east of the area by Tuesday
with drier air and subsidence associated with high pressure trying
to briefly build in across the region, however latest model trends
have sped up the next weak wave moving toward the area from the
northwest along the back side of the main upper level trough. This
will keep the threat for at least scattered snow showers (including
lake enhanced/upslope) going through Tuesday...and Wednesday as yet
another fast-moving wave in the pipeline is set to move over or near
our region from the upper Great Lakes in the mid week timeframe.
There are some model discrepancies on exact timing and strength of
these systems, so confidence on just how these features will impact
our region remains moderate at best. However, it is a good bet that
cold northwesterly flow regime will keep our temperatures below
normal with most precipitation falling in the form of snow through
mid week. Main storm track tries to lift north of our area Thursday,
with a possible break in the weather as high pressure tries to build
across the region from the west.

Low confidence forecast toward the end of the work week with
significant model discrepancies...ranging anywhere from strong
Canadian high pressure ridged across the lower Great Lakes to an
area of strong low pressure moving directly over the region. Stay
tuned.

As hinted at above, temperatures some 10 degrees below average to
start the period will trend close to average toward the end of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through this evening linger lower clouds and patchy higher terrain
fog south of Lake Ontario will continue to gradually give way to
improving conditions...with flight conditions ranging from VFR
closer to Lake Ontario to MVFR/IFR across the higher terrain. This
said a spotty light shower cannot be ruled out as a weak disturbance
passes through the area. This same disturbance will bring a better
chance of showers to areas east of Lake Ontario this evening...where
flight conditions will be a mix of VFR and MVFR.

High pressure will then ridge in from the Ohio Valley overnight with
a drier airmass...resulting in ceilings rising to the VFR flight
category at many sites. One possible concern is if it clears out
enough KJHW (and possibly other sites) are likely to get radiation
fog with IFR or lower conditions.

Any fog and low cigs will dissipate quickly Saturday due to
increasing SSW winds. Expect widespread VFR flight conditions
by late morning to last through 00Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR in scattered rain and snow showers.
Monday and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with lake effect snow showers
southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Widely scattered rain or snow showers.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A passing weak disturbance and associated tightening of the pressure
gradient will allow winds to temporarily increase to moderate levels
across Lake Ontario this evening...with waves consequently building
to the 2-4 foot range along the south shore of the Lake between
Hamlin Beach and Mexico Bay for a brief period. Otherwise...light to
modest winds and wave action will generally prevail through tonight
and into Saturday morning.

As we push through Saturday south to southwesterly winds will
freshen some out ahead of an approaching cold front...though
conditions are currently expected to remain below advisory levels.
The front will then cross the region Saturday night...with better
chances for advisory-level conditions expected to arrive during
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Apffel/JJR
MARINE...JJR


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