Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 290902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
502 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND. DRY
AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES HAS LARGELY PUSHED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER AS THICKER DECK OF MIC/HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO MID/UPPER
LEVELS. HAVE NUDGED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONSENSUS 850MB TEMP
FORECAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THOUGH A
FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY TOUCH 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NE OH/WRN PA THAT MAY
ALSO CLIP FAR SW NY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS ON SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AND PLAINS STATES. FURTHER EAST...BROAD/WEAK TROUGHING AND AN
ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTH TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS IS WHAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVEL BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST AND THE START OF SEPTEMBER.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STILL PROVIDE MINIMAL LIFT TO
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST... ALBEIT WEAK...INSTABILITY AND CLOSER
TO DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH VERY
MILD AND HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY FOR OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME BREAKING DOWN OF
THE RIDGE BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AROUND
THURSDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT COULD TRIGGER SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE
GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL A MORE CLEAR
PICTURE CAN BE SEEN IN GUIDANCE. NO REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WRN/NCTRL NY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR ANOTHER NIGHT.
EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING PERIODS OF LIFR AT KJHW THROUGH 12-13Z WITH CLEARING
THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN
12KFT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
3500-5000FT ACROSS WNY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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