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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030026
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK