


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
857 FXUS61 KBUF 121755 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 155 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid today, with a chance of a few afternoon showers or a thunderstorm during peak heating. A cold front will near the region on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Drier weather returns Monday, with somewhat cooler temperatures and less humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Heat and humidity will build this afternoon. We should see mercury readings reach the mid-upper 80s with low 90s in the Genesee Valley and the lake plains south of Lake Ontario. Dewpoints are forecast in the upper 60s to near 70F. This will result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s along the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and northern Finger Lakes. Heat advisories have been hoisted for these areas. That said...there is one other thing to watch as the heat builds this afternoon, CAMs show convection firing up again just east of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region after 19Z. Otherwise...muggy and mild tonight ahead of the approaching trough and cold front. There will be a continued chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Air conditioner will definitely be cranking as temps will `not` drop very far, with many locales in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure behind a cold front will bring fair weather, and lowering dewpoints Monday and Tuesday. As this surface high shifts eastward Wednesday a southernly return flow of very warm and humid air will bring the return of uncomfortable conditions (heat index values upper 80s to lower 90s) with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A humid (PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface temperatures in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers and thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave trough. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Uncertainty increases to start next weekend as a few 12Z models depict a slower passage to this cold front with a surface wave upon which would linger showers and thunderstorms into the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR for much of the daytime hours, as the heat builds there will be a renewed chance for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening, especially from the Finger Lakes eastward. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will again have the possibility of producing a localized brief period of IFR or below conditions. Outlook... Sunday and Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms likely with restrictions possible. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. && .MARINE... Light winds and minimal wave action today, there will be a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. A slow moving cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday night. Winds pick up a bit ahead and with the front but remain well below any headline criteria. Winds remain fairly light Sunday night behind the front through Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-010- 011-013-014. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR/TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...AR/TMA MARINE...AR