Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







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