Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270250
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OF 7 DEG C H85 AIR OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE INDUCED RAIN
SHOWERS. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL ONLY PICK UP A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...A 280 TO 300 MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW WILL CONCFENTRATE
THESE SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.

A SHORTER FETCH AND SOMEWHAT MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL MAKE
THE ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE LESS ORGANIZED...BUT THE ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED PLUME OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION...AND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ENOUGH VEERING
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OSWEGO COUNTY...AS WELL AS WAYNE AND NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES. LIMITING THIS MESOSCALE ACTIVITY THOUGH WILL BE A
PRONOUNCED CAP ARND 9K FT. THIS 2-3 DEG C FEATURE WAS DEPICTED
VERY POORLY BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...BUT STICKS OUT
LIKE A SORE THUMB IN THE AIRCRAFT AND 00Z KBUF SOUNDINGS.

BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL
INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH THESE SHOWERS ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON.
A PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON THE LAKE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS LONGER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THERE BY EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ON THE
HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.

ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND PROBABLY SOME FOG IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THIS TO OUR NORTH OR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER...BUT PERHAPS SOME CLOUD
COVER. MEANWHILE A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT HANDLING A SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD...EVENTUALLY...CROSS OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM
SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE...AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SLOWER BECAUSE IT CUTS OF THE LOW AND THEREFORE DOES
NOT HAVE IT REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. EITHER
WAY...THE FEATURE IS WEAK AND WILL SPARK MINIMAL AND DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED SHOWERS. BASED ON THIS...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOW-END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

SUMMER RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECASTING A BROAD
500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANY WEAK REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ARE NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY CHANCE POPS...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO MORE LAKE EFFECT
IN NATURE TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS FOCUSING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER 03Z AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL TEND TO LOWER
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS EAST OF BOTH LAKES
AND ALSO ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR VSBY MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THURSDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT THEIR MOST WIDESPREAD...
POSSIBLY EVEN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INTRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER LAKES REGION. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FIRST ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND MIDDAY...THEN IMPROVE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
BY MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS IN THE 15-17 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT WITH WIND AND WAVE ACTION JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER ON LAKE ERIE...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SOME ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH


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