Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261040
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
640 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few light showers will push across Western New York early this
morning ahead of weak warm front. Temperature and humidity levels
today will edge a bit higher as the front lifts across the region.
Dewpoints will rise into the lower 60s for most with temperatures
again reaching into the upper 70s and 80s.

The heat and humidity will bring an increase in coverage to the
shower and thunderstorm activity. A shortwave trough and ribbon of
vorticity currently indicated on WV imagery over Wisconsin is
forecast to arrive over Western New York, by which time CAPE
values should rise to near 1000 j/kg, with greatest instability
expected across the Southern Tier. This should trigger scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours
with activity working its way eastward across the forecast area
through the early evening hours. Another area of convection will
be possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario during
the afternoon hours as well, though confidence is a little lower
here owing to lower instability and possible lake shadowing. 0-6km
bulk wind shear across the forecast area is expected to remain at
or below 20 kts, so activity is expected to remain below severe
levels, however with PWATS forecast to climb above 1.5 inches,
some storms could produce heavy rain.

Tonight, the mid level wave will push into New England. This
combined with diminishing diurnal instability will result in
diminishing showers from west to east. Overnight it will be
mainly dry, although a few spotty showers or thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out in the weak warm advection regime, especially
if any convectively generated vorticity maxima from upstream drift
into the region. The combination of boundary layer moisture and
light winds will result in patchy fog in any areas with ample
clearing. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the Lake Plains, and
lower 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a very summer-like pattern on Friday and Saturday,
with an upper level ridge axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the lower Great Lakes. There will be little or no large scale ascent
due to this ridging, but moderate instability will support some
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of the lake breeze
boundaries, with mid to upper chance range PoPs each afternoon and
evening.

Areal coverage should be quite sparse, with only low chances for any
precipitation at any one given location. 850mb temps rise to around
+17C to +18C, which will support highs in the mid 80s in most areas
with upper 80s to even 90 possible from the Genesee Valley to
central NY. It will be cooler along the immediate lakeshores,
especially during the afternoon hours when the lake breeze becomes
better established.

Any showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish in coverage
during the nighttime. Again a few spotty showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out if any convectively generated vorticity maxima
from upstream drift into the region. Overnight temperatures will be
warm with lows in the upper 60s across the Lake Plains and the mid
60s across interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summers warmth will begin this period...with a slight break midweek
as both air and dewpoint temperatures will turn down a few degrees.

On Sunday the ridge of high pressure that gripped the start of the
holiday weekend will begin to weaken as a shortwave trough of low
pressure rounds the ridge over the western Great Lakes region. While
there will be chances for afternoon convection over the region
Sunday...this shortwave will likely bring the highest chances for
showers late Sunday night and Monday across the region as it
crosses.

This shortwave looks to also shunt Atlantic moisture to our
east...this moisture flowing northward from tropical activity off
the Southeast states. This will allow for lowering of the humidity
if the plume of moisture remains to our east as well as a dry
period for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

High Sunday will range through the 80s...while Monday through
Wednesday will feature highs from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN upper level disturbance and surface warm front will approach
the region today. This will trigger widely scattered showers
across Western NY through 16z. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will increase in coverage around/after 18Z as the disturbance and
front move east. Greatest confidence in convection is found in the
Southern Tier, where instability will be maximized, while
confidence is lower at KBUF/KIAG where SW lake breeze flow may
keep convection limited to the east of the fields. Likewise, lake
shadowing should keep convection east of KART.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the lakes today.
Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds and waves outside
of any storms will remain fairly negligible through the next few
days. The tranquil pattern will continue through the end of the
week, although thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and
waves at times each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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