Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 110245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING COMFORTABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...WARMER MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL RULE AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY
EVENING. ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE HAS BROUGHT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT SOME AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALLEGANY PLATEAU REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW WITH JUST PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CU SPROUTING UP AWAY FROM
THE LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 40S
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RISE UP TO AROUND NORMAL...WHICH IS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ALL "QUIET" WX WISE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES....AT LEAST FOR
THE INITIAL BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SATURDAY...PWATS START THE UPWARD
CLIMB (+ 1.15 TO 1.25 INCHES 18Z) WHICH ISN`T TOO OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH IT STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME FOR ANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE FACTOR BEING THE
BUMP IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES. WITH 850H TEMPS IN THE +13 AND
+14 RANGE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES.

AFTER A RELATIVELY "QUIET" FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ON THE HEALS
OF THE INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND A MORE POTENT
AND WELL SUPPORTED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL LAKES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO HINT AT
AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY.
OVERNIGHT...UNDER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR MASS LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...WITH PWATS CONTINUING TO CLIMB ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
(+1.50 INCHES)...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING FROM THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT FROM ANY CONVECTION
LOOKS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL (WBZ +10K)...ALTHOUGH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH TO A DEGREE ALTHOUGH NOT COMPLETELY WITH GENERAL
TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE KEPT MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS RIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR HIGHS ON MONDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES...WHICH CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL)CARVING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX THROUGH MOST
OF THIS TIME PERIOD AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL (500H TEMPS -17 TO
-20) SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AT THIS
POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. AFTER THAT...WITH THE COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD IT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THURSDAY. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...HIGHS WILL
LIKELY RUN 10F TO 15F BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF A STRAY CU OR TWO. THE
MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS TO IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAWN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH
A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FAIR
CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY STORM MAY KICK UP WAVES A BIT ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS. COLDER AIR PASSING OVER THE LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO
THE LAKES AND POSSIBLY RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SMITH/THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS






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