Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 201436
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA







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