Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 291355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-
SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OVER MAINE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S WET
AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

SCT-BKN 3-5K FT CLOUD DECK WEST OF GENSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED BY ANY LINGERING
IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...JJR



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