Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 200220
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1020 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored along the Mid-Atlantic coastline
through the upcoming weekend with dry weather and above normal
temperatures. The pattern will become more unsettled early next week
with a slow moving cold front bringing rain, followed by cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some thin/high cirrus will continue to drift across the area
overnight in northwest flow aloft as a weak upper level trough moves
into New England. A weak cold front which moved through the area
early this evening is moving off into New England.

Cooler air will build in behind the front with lows dropping into
the 40s, perhaps a few locales in upper 30s across the Southern Tier
and Lewis County. Dry air and lingering graident flow will limit fog
development to only the deepest Southern Tier valleys late tonight.

Friday, another fair weather dry with high pressure remaining
dominant. Sunshine will offset weak cold air advection with
most high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night and Saturday a large and expansive area of high
pressure will remain over the east coast, with abundant sunshine
and above normal temperatures. Highs will be some 15- 20
degrees above normal Saturday as +12 to +14c 850 hPa
temperatures reach our region with the surface high slightly
displaced to the east. Dry ground and a light southerly wind
should push temperatures into the 70s, with an 80F reading not
out of the question somewhere across the lake plain/Genesee
Valley...which is typically our warmest area. Record highs may
be just out of reach, which include for this date: Buffalo
81F/1894, Rochester 80F/2007 and Watertown 78F/1979.

Dewpoints will begin to slowly rise Friday night and into the
weekend...such that valley fog at night will be possible through
southwest NYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another fine day is on tap for Sunday as a seasonably strong 500mb
ridge over the East Coast with surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic will bring plenty of sunshine across western and
north central New York. A light southerly flow will help
temperatures run 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs forecast
to climb into the low to mid 70s. Record highs for all three climate
sites should remain safe. Sunday night will remain mild with mainly
clear skies as high pressure will still be in control and dewpoints
run in the 50s. Expect lows to range from the low 50s well inland to
upper 50s near the lakes.

Differences in model timing of an approaching front remain for
Monday with the 1019/12z GFS continuing to shift the front over our
region during the day while the 1019/12z EC remains about 12 hours
slower holding the fronts arrival off until Monday night. Have held
onto 20/30 POPs on Monday which favor the EC timing but still cover
for a possible earlier arrival with the GFS. POPs for WNY then
increase to 60/70 for Monday night with high pressure still favoring
mainly dry weather across CNY. With the slower arrival of the front,
temperatures will remain on the mild side Monday.

The wettest period looks to lock in on Tuesday as the frontal zone
stalls across our region and one or more waves of low pressure shift
north along the front. Have continued 60-70 POPs for Tuesday as both
GFS/EC models are in agreement with a surface low lifting north
across New York. The GFS shows a potentially moisture rich airmass
will move into place along the front with a connection to the Gulf
of Mexico which could push PWATs above 1.5 inches or more. WPC Day 4-
5 QPF shows a swath of 1-1.5 inches of rain over southwestern New
York. Temperatures will run near normal (mid-upper 50s) Tuesday.

Chance POPs are featured for Wednesday as the mid-level trough and
cold advection support showery weather in the wake of the front.
Below normal temps should be expected for Wednesday as 850mb temps
dip to or below zero 0 which would support temps likely struggling
to break above 50 in many locations and may support some lake
enhancement as well into Wednesday night. The coolest low temps
Wednesday night dip into the upper 30s which should still keep a
threat of any snow out of the forecast for now.

Thursday then looks to bring back some dry weather in both GFS and
EC models as western and north-central NY comes under the influence
of a narrow ridge separating a digging trough in the Northern Plains
and potential developing coastal storm just off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Temps forecast near normal with partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High/thin cirrus will continue to cross the area tonight. There may
be some patchy light fog in the river valleys of the western
Southern Tier with local IFR late tonight and early Friday, but this
will not impact KJHW.

VFR will continue Friday with high pressure anchored along the Mid
Atlantic coast.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except for local IFR in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient will slowly relax overnight on the eastern
Great Lakes. Small craft advisory conditions will continue through
much of tonight on Lake Erie, and through early Friday morning on
the east half of Lake Ontario. Relatively light winds will then
return Friday through Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA


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