Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 190548
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS
TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN VERY QUIET. THE DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING YIELDING ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STAY AT 10 KT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH PAST THE MID 50S. IN FACT...DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THE FLOW...AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STAY IN THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S.

ON SATURDAY...THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVES MOVES
THROUGH NW ONTARIO. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAILING END OF THE WAVE MOVING INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...850MB AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS LEAVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN 1/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS/STORMS SPOTTY AT BEST. AS
SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REGIONAL GEM IS
CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL OR UPPER FORCING...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE 850MB
TEMPS BEING A LITTLE WARMER...MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A WARM AND HUMID STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEKEND
AND START NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
EVENING WILL BRUSH LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AND WITH BROAD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...WITH NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM EXPECT A WARM BUT DRY DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. CAPPING SHOULD BE PRETTY STRONG BY THEN BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY WILL BE IN ITS
DECAYING STAGES AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. MODELS STILL OFFER SOME DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT
IWD AND CMX AS A WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRES
SYSTEMS/TROFS MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. ONE TROF WILL FINALLY CROSS
THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. WINDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
OCNL PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (15-25KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS
PLATFORMS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKE...MAINLY AFTER SOME PCPN OCCURS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...MRD






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