Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 120902
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE THE WSW FOR EXPECTATIONS DURING UPCOMING EVENT. ESSENTIALLY...AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM HUDSON BAY TO WRN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO FRI
NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING N-S
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN LINGERING A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOULD HAVE
850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -21C OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT THOSE TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING TO AROUND -29C BY 00Z SAT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS THE SFC TROUGH. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY LES ALONG THE SFC TROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL SEE MODERATE TO
HEAVY LES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
FACTOR IN HEADLINE DECISIONS WAS THE WINDS...GUSTING TO 45 MPH ALONG
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT
TO SEE BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ZERO OR NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES...ALONG M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING. FOR THIS
REASON DECIDED TO GO WITH LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBO OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW JUSTIFIED LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES. MAY ALSO NEED DELTA
COUNTY IN AN ADVISORY IF A STRONG BAND CAN EXTEND INTO THE NERN PART
OF THE COUNTY...BUT WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. HAVE TEMPS MOSTLY FALLING ON FRI...WITH NOON FRI TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER ALL BUT LAKE MI BORDERING AREAS. THE COLD
TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO
-25 FROM W TO E ON FRI...EVEN STARTING THE DAY WITH -25 WIND CHILL
OVER THE W.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WL BE QUITE COLD WITH H85 TEMPS
IN THE -25C TO -28C AT 12Z SAT SUPPORTING LES IN THE NW WIND SN
BELTS. BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG AXIS WL
DIMINISH THE LES BY LATE SAT NGT...WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE QUITE
COLD AT SOME PLACES AS SFC HI PRES RDG CROSSES THE CWA. WAA BTWN THE
DEPARTING HI AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NCENTRAL
STATES MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SN ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF LES AND COLDER WX WL ARRIVE ON TUE
INTO WED AS THE COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
PASSES THE UPR LKS ON TUE. WARMER WX MAY BE IN STORE LATE NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPR FLOW TRANSITIONS FM A WRN RDG/ERN TROF ORIENTATION TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW MORE TYPICAL OF THE ONGOING STRONG EL NINO.

SAT...ONGOING LES OVER THE WRN CWA WL DIMINISH/END ON SAT UNDER
VIGOROUS DNVA/12HR H5 HGT RISES APRCHG 150M AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV
RDG AXIS THAT DROP SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE AOB 3K FT AGL AND BLDG SFC
HI PRES/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THESE NEGATIVE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS WL IMPACT THE LES INTENSITY OVER THE NW WIND SN BELTS E OF
MQT...PERSISTENT LLVL CNVGC FCST UNDER H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -24C THRU
00Z SUN AND ALONG LINGERING LK INDUCED TROF WL KEEP THE SN SHOWERS
GOING IN THIS AREA. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR...THE DGZ WL BE QUITE
SHALLOW AND LIMIT SN/WATER RATIOS AND SN ACCUMS. ALTHOUGH THERE WL
BE STILL SOME BLSN OF THE FINE FLAKES IN THE MRNG WITH NW H925 WINDS
UP TO 30-35 KTS...WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS
HAZARD THRU THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE W
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC HI PRES RDG...H85 TEMPS RECOVERING ONLY
TO -18C OVER THE W WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS AT MOST PLACES.

SAT NGT...LINGERING LES OVER THE E WL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND END AS THE
SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS PASSES TO THE E BY 12Z AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY WITH LGT WINDS/CLRG OF THE
LO CLDS UNDER THE PASSING RDG AXIS...INCRSG S WINDS LATER AT NGT AND
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HI CLDS IN THE WAA UNDER TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES AND FALLING MSLP IN THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV WL TEND TO LIMIT HOW FAR TEMPS FALL
OVER THE W. EXPECT THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE
EARLIER CLRG AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR A LONGER TIME ALLOW A LONGER
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SUN/SUN NGT...SINCE SHRTWV IN THE NRN PLAINS AND ACCOMPANYING
SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ARE FCST TO DIG TO THE SE...
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SN ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING SW FLOW/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE SW OF UPR MI. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY A BIT FARTHER TO THE NE WITH LOWER MSLP AND ITS
QPF...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL INDICATES THE SHARPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON
THE 280-285K SFCS /H8-7/ WL REMAIN MAINLY IN WI...AND IS NOT
PREFERRED BY WPC. THE BEST CHC FOR MORE SN WL BE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA DOWWIND OF LK MI WHERE S WINDS OFF THAT BODY OF WATER WL
ALLOW FOR SOME LES IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING FM -
18C AT 12Z SUN TO ARND -12C TOWARD 12Z MON. WITH THE WAA/INCRSG H85
TEMPS...EXPECT MORE MODERATE SFC TEMPS.

MON/MON NGT...EXPECT PERSISTENT LO CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SN DURING THIS
TIME WITH CONTINUED GENERAL WAA BTWN DEPARTING HI PRES MOVING THRU
THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER SHRTWV/SFC LO PRES DIGGING SE TOWARD
THE UPR LKS WITHIN LARGER SCALE TROF OVER ECENTRAL NAMERICA. LACK OF
SGNFT MSTR INFLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING WL LIMIT POPS AND PCPN
AMOUNTS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND -5C LATER ON
MON. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS WRMG...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO AT LEAST NORMAL.

TUE/TUE NGT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FROPA/INFLUX OF COLDER AIR THAT DROPS H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -20C
TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV DIGGING INTO THE UPR LKS. WITH TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS UP TO 30KTS SUPPORTING THE VIGOROUS CAA...
THERE WL LIKELY BE SOME BLSN AS WELL. BUT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING/BLDG SFC HI PRES WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF THIS LES EVENT DESPITE THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR.

EXTENDED...INCOMING CNDN SFC HI PRES SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHILLY AND
DRY WX FOR WED. A CHC OF SN WL RETURN ON THU IN THE WAA PATTERN LEFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HI PRES. THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT A FAIRLY SHARP WARMUP LATE IN THE WEEK/PERHPAS SOME RAIN AS
THE UPR FLOW TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN MORE TYPCIAL OF
ONGOING STRONG EL NINO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WILL
SPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING STARTING WITH KCMX AND THEN SPREADING INTO
KIWD AND KSAW.  EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR TO
OCCASIONAL LIFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A TROUGH AND
STRONGER NNW WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR...RESULTING IN LOWERED
VSBYS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX
SITE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING LIFR CONDITIONS FROM THE SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHILE KSAW FARTHER INLAND FROM THE LAKE SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

EXPECT NW VEERING N GALES TO 35-40 KTS UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN LO PRES MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI
PRES BUILDING FROM SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PERSIST OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO SAT...WHEN THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
SINCE THIS STRONG NNW FLOW WILL ADVECT BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE THE RULE INTO
SAT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W PORTION OF LAKE SUP. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A STRONG S WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON UNDER THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. MORE N GALES MAY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKE ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROF.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>004-
     007-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ009>011.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC


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