Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 051918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING SOME SHRA/TSTMS FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE SHRA/TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF AXIS. CLOSER TO
HOME...RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO LINGER TODAY WITH SLIGHT RISING OF HEIGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF THE W. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY
WITH MIDDAY 850MB TEMPS IN THE 13-15C RANGE. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S WHICH IS INLINE WITH
THE ARRAY OF AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE W WILL BE
LOCALLY WARMER (UPPER 80S) WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW UP LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF FOG AT
LEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THUS...LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA EASTWARD...MAY HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG/STRATUS AT TIMES TODAY.

WITH LOW-LEVEL JET/AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THETA-E
AXIS SHIFTING E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH REACHES FAR
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E TOWARD
THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A WELL
DEVELOPED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN MN...THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS OUT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
LARGELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING UPPER MI. NEW DEVELOPMENT THEN
OCCURS LATE ON THE NOSE OF A STRONGER PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...AND THIS NEW CONVECTION SPREADS INTO WRN UPPER MI VERY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...WHICH STARTS 00Z TUE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT 00Z TUE...BUT A ROUGHLY 1002MB SFC LOW WILL BE OVER
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ABOUT HALF WAY DONE WITH
AN E-W TRANSIT OF UPPER MI. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD BE E OF THE CWA BY SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z TUE. THERE WILL
BE A SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF SUCH ARE STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
TO THE SFC DUE TO STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP LOADING IN
CONVECTION. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE
THREAT...BUT THINKING THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO
ERN UPPER MI WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODIFIED BY FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST OVER
3.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS...BUT SFC DEW PTS AND CAPE LOOK QUITE A
BIT OVERDONE SO WILL GO WITH OTHER MODELS. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER FAR
ERN UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES E (SEE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS)...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY NW
WINDS OVER AND ALONG CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MON NIGHT.

THINK PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS ON TRACK WITH LAGGING CLEARING ON TUE AS
CLOUDS TYPICALLY HANG ON LONGER THAN SHOWN BY MODELS. DO NOT EXPECT
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED...BUT COULD SEE FOG
NEAR FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. TUE WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 5C...DOWN FROM AROUND 18C MON. IT WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW 70S FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE 60S IN BETWEEN.

EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
NO PRECIP EXPECTED WED AND THU AND ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIP FRI. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PRECIP AND TEMPS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. WITH PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN DEPARTING HIGH
PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WINDS HAVE BECOME
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20KT AT KIWD/KSAW. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH WRN UPPER MI. IT`S
POSSIBLE SHRA COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT BETTER CHC WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT. INCLUDED -SHRA MENTION AT KIWD LATE...BUT ONLY VCSH AT KCMX.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT BOTH KIWD
AND KCMX BY LATE MON MORNING IN SHRA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TS
COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
OVER THE FAR W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY
OVER THE WATER WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON
EVENING...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE
UNUSUAL STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO 30KT AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD
GRAND MARAIS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT TUE NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY. ARRIVAL OF
MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF FOG.
FOG WILL THEN BE CLEANED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON


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