Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 271725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH
JUST A COUPLE OF MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. AS ALLUDED TO
YESTERDAY...THERE WERE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOWER CLOUDS COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE U.P. PRIOR TO SUNSET LAST NIGHT.
IT WAS A CLOSE RACE BUT THE SETTING SUN WON OUT...TRAPPING THE LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE EAST FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT MORE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
FROM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG...SOME OF IT LOCALLY
DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
U.P. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

WITH RETURN FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO THEIR NORMAL
LATE AUGUST LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR FRIDAY THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER...IN THE 50S...COMPARED TO THE CHILLY
READING WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A TRICKY FCST IS IN STORE FOR THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME AS THE LATEST
MODELS SHOW SOME SGNFT DIFFERNCES ON THE TRACK OF A SHRTWV EMBEDDED
IN THE SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE CONUS THAT WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
ON THE WX OVER UPR MI. WITH SUPPORT FM THE 12Z AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS...TENDED TO FOLLOW THE DRIER OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS/CNDN MODEL
FCSTS SHOWING A FARTHER S TRACK GIVEN TENDENCY FOR BLDG UPR RDG IN
THE PLAINS TO ALLOW A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS. THIS UPR
RDG IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LKS BEGINNING ON SUN...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM WX THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

FRI THRU SAT...THE FCST DURING THIS PERIOD WL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK OF THE SRN BRANCH SHRTWV WHICH WL BE MOVING E THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TO THE E OF AN UPR RDG OVER THE W THAT WL BE
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS BY SAT AND TO THE S OF A FASTER NRN BRANCH
WNW FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA. ALTHOUGH THE INCRSG AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN
RDG WOULD SUGGEST THE SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO WOULD TEND TO DRIFT
TO THE ESE AS THE FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPR RDG AXIS ATTAINS A MORE NW
COMPONENT...SOME OF THE RECENT EXPLICIT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO
SHOW A MORE NRN TRACK. THE 12Z/00Z ECMWF RUNS ARE FARTHEST N AND
DEEPEST WITH THE LO THE MODEL FCSTS TO REACH NRN LOWER MI ON SAT
AFTN. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE CNDN AND GFS MODELS...WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE 12Z/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MSLP...HAVE SHOWN A WEAKER/FARTHER S
TRACK WITH UPR MI INFLUENCED MORE BY A WEAK RDG AXIS/MID LVL DRY AIR
BTWN THE LOWER MSLP TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND TO THE N
BY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NRN BRANCH FLOW. GIVEN THE UPR RDG
BLDG INTO THE PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS THE FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SRN
BRANCH SHRTWV...WL TREND TOWARD THE 00Z GFS/CNDN MODEL OUTPUT FOR
FCST PREPARATION. THESE MODELS GENERATE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
BRANCH DISTURBANCE OVER MAINLY JUST THE SCENTRAL FRI AFTN INTO SAT
MRNG WITH SOME SHOWERS/TS ACCOMPANYING PASSING NRN BRANCH SHRTWVS
INFLUENCING MAINLY THE N HALF OF THE CWA OVER LK SUP. DID RETAIN AT
LEAST SCHC POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO REFLECT CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF THESE PCPN SHIELDS AS WELL AS NCEP
PREFERENCE FOR A BLEND BTWN THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ON SAT WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC UNDER RISING HGTS LEFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV TO THE SE.

SAT NGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO BUILD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS...
RESULTING IN RISING MSLP/MID LVL DRYING. WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER A
WEAK SFC HI PRES TAKING SHAPE NEARBY...ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE FCST.

SUN...EXPECT ANY MRNG FOG TO BURN OFF AND GIVE WAY TO A MOSUNNY DAY
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVHD UNDER BLDG HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG. FCST H85
TEMPS ARND 16C AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WL SUPPORT HI TEMPS
RISING INTO THE 80S AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED...HI AMPLITUDE RDG EXTENDING FM THE SCNTRL CONUS NE INTO
ERN CANADA IS FCST TO DOMINATE...WITH A DEEP SW FLOW ON THE NW FLANK
OF SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PREVAILING OVER THE GREAT
LKS AND ADVECTING H85 TEMPS UP TO ABOUT 20C INTO THE AREA. THIS
PATTERN WL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES DISTURBANCES RIDING NEWD ON THE NW
FLANK OF THE STRONG RDG AND ATTENDANT COLD FNTS THAT MAY PRESS
TOWARD AT LEAST THE NW CWA COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/TS...TIMING
DIFFERENCES/THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR RDG WARRANT NO HIER THAN SCHC
POPS AND MAINLY OVER THE NW CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRETTY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 15
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...MZ


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