Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 231934
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECAYING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA TO IA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS A WELL DEFINED N-S ORIENTED
LINE OF CLOUDS FROM JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY..A N-S LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN
IRONWOOD TO MUNISING AND MENOMINEE. EXPECT THE PRECIP COVERAGE TO
DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES E
TOWARD A RIDGE CURRENTLY JUST ESE OF THE CWA.

EXPECT FOG TO FORM BEHIND THE RAIN SHOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E AS DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
W...LIMITING FOG CHANCES THERE.

THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN THE DECAYING TROUGH AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA ON FRI...WITH SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING NOTED
OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ERN UPPER MI WHERE GREATER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS SW WINDS PUSH MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S W TO THE MID 50S E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW 12Z FRI WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST AND AFFECTS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
SAT NIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH MOVES OUT SAT MORNING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA AND KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE ERN CWA AS THE AREA
GETS BRUSHED BY THIS SHORTWAVE. ON SATURDAY...WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
FOR WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW 12Z SUN. THIS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
MON WITH TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND LINGERS INTO WED. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE GFS IS AND SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES SEPARATE. GFS IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. WITH THE TROUGH IN THE AREA AND
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK GOOD WITH
TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. WILL BE DRY ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
LOWERED CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES DURING THE TAF PERIOD. AT IWD...THE
LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LATER
MINIMUMS AT CMX AND SAW. AS THE RAIN CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT SAW...BRINGING LIFR CONDITIONS.
CMX MAY ALSO SEE FOG...BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE SO LEFT FOG OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A MUCH
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY ON SATURDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30KTS ON SATURDAY
(WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR). AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20KTS. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE UP TO 25KTS ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






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