Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281128
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A PRETTY TRANQUIL LATE AUGUST FRIDAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
WI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WILL MAKE IT WITH THIS FEATURE.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT JUST THE FAR SOUTHERN U.P. WILL BE BRUSHED WITH
THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME THE
DISTURBANCE IS PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CANADA IN WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

WITH MOST OF THE U.P. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BEGINNING SAT...MODELS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTENING/THETA-E ADVECTION AND
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT STAYING GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA WITH SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER WRN IA AS IT SLIDES THRU SRN WI TODAY INTO LOWER MI
TONIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS SHOW THIS SHEARING OUT AND WEAKENING
CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. CAN/T SEE HAVING MORE
THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS ANYWHERE MAINLY FOR ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION
THAT MIGHT BRUSH OUR CWA FROM COMPLEXES FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

MODELS CONSISTENT BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM SUN
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS TROUGH TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION SNEAK INTO MAINLY THE WRN FCST AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE MID-UPR LVL
RIDGE.  WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARM AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS 8H
TEMPS HOVERING FROM 18-20C THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM AT LEAST MON ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THESE READINGS WOULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...MZ


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