Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 200610
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
210 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

High pressure situated over much of Wisconsin this afternoon led to
clear skies through much of the day allowing temperatures to climb
into 70s and a few 80s across the south central. Upstream of the
area, a complex of thunderstorms moving across the northern Plains
has continued to push southeast into southern Minnesota and Iowa.

The models are really struggling to handle the ongoing convection to
our southwest as convection across the northern Plains continues to
drop southeast towards the Corn Belt. With the better moisture
oriented west to east just ahead of this complex of storms, as the
complex continues to grow upscale this afternoon expect the return
of the better moisture this far north to be reduced. There will
still be a chance for showers and storms tonight into Thursday
morning, especially across the southern portions of Upper Michigan,
as a weak shortwave moves across the area and the right entrance
region of the upper-level jet will track across the area. Light to
at times moderate rain may fall at times, but overall do not expect
rainfall accumulations like we saw yesterday.

Thursday morning, lingering showers across the south central portions
of the area will continue to push off to the southeast as cooler air
begins to filter southeast across Upper Michigan and a weak surface
trough swings through the area. Cloud cover will gradually thin, but
do expect diurnal clouds to hold on through much of the day with the
above mentioned cooler air aloft. Temperature wise, it should feel
very pleasant with seasonable temperatures. South central portions
of the area will see the warmest temperatures with good downslope,
northerly winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

Thursday night through Friday night: A shortwave is progged to slide
through the area during this time period, especially Friday
afternoon and Friday evening. There will be enough forcing and
moisture, mainly over the southern portions of the U.P., to touch
off a few showers and thunderstorms across the area. The main
shortwave track will be just south of the U.P., which again will
keep the main focus over WI, with a few showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two nosing into southern areas. High temperatures
will be above normal Friday with highs warming into the upper 70s
and low 80s, except cooler along the Great Lakes shorelines.

Saturday through Sunday: Unsettled weather can be expected again for
the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure and a couple upper
level troughs/shortwaves are progged to slide into the Upper Great
Lakes region. Although there is still some timing uncertainty, the
initial band of showers with WAA and deep layer q-vector convergence
ahead of the initial shortwave late Friday night into Saturday.
Saturday night into Sunday, the stronger shortwave axis will slide
directly overhead as wrap-around moisture flows into the area on the
northwest side of the surface low. The low will continue to shift
slowly to the east through Sunday night. Again, with the low
remaining nearby and another disturbance sliding through the area
aloft, the rain showers will continue acorss much of the U.P.
through Sunday night. Temperatures will be above normal for Friday,
with highs in the 80s; however, with more unsettle weather over the
weekend, expect high to cool off a bit to more seasonable readings,
in the 70s.

Rest of the extended: High pressure is expected to move into the
area, allowing for mainly dry conditions for Monday into Tuesday.
Models are hinting at a cold front pushing through the area
Wendesday; however, with this being toward the end of the forecast
period, exact timining and placement will be difficult to pin down.
It does look like there will be and increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday and will stick with a consensus of the
models for that time period with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Again, temperatures should remain near to slightly
below normal through the remaining extended forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru the fcst period at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW, though there may be occasional ground fog at IWD
early this morning. There is a small potential that shra could
still develop and affect KSAW overnight. If shra do occur,
conditions could fall to MVFR or lower for a short time. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 259 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

20 knots winds ahead of a cold front progged to push east across the
lake overnight will move west to east across the lake, then winds
will become southwesterly into Thursday morning/afternoon at 10 to
20 knots. Friday through the weekend and into early next week, winds
will generally remain around or under 15 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Rolfson/JLA
MARINE...Ritzman



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