Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240825
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CONFLUENT WNW
FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR LKS BTWN A NRN BRANCH CUTOFF LO OVER NRN
QUEBEC AND A SRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATING THE CONUS WITH A STRONG
SHRTWV IN THIS FLOW DRIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD THRU WYOMING. THERE IS A
GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER OVER UPR MI WITH WAA IN TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
ZN TO THE NE OF H85 WARM FNT STRETCHING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN
WI...BUT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RA EARLY THIS MRNG STRETCHES FM NCENTRAL
MN ESEWD INTO NCENTRAL WI CLOSER TO THE H85 FNT. THERE ARE MORE SCT
RA SHOWERS DVLPG IN NRN MN WHERE UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET
CORE CENTERED JUST SW OF JAMES BAY IS AIDING LIFT OF MOISTER AIR
SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS THAT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS EXPANDING PCPN AND THE NE PUSH OF
THE RA IN WI CLOSER TO THE H85 WARM FNT. THE AIR IN ONTARIO IS EVEN
DRIER WITH 00Z PWAT AS LO AS 0.14 INCH AT YPL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/QPF ASSOCIATED
WITH TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZN OVER UPR MI UNDER PERSISTENT UPR DVGC
IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX MOVING ONLY SLOWLY E THRU TNGT. CLOSER APRCH
TNGT OF SHRTWV NOW IN WYOMING WILL INTENSIFY THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCRSG THE HEAVIER RA WL FALL NEAR THE WI BORDER...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RA RELATED TO POSITION OF SHARPER FGEN AND
IMPACT OF DRY AIR TO THE N.

TDAY...H85 THERMAL GRADIENT/UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET CORE TO THE
NE IS FCST TO EXPAND OVER UPR MI TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN TO THE N ACCORDINGLY. SO WL EXPAND HIER
POPS NE THRU THE CWA EXCEPT OVER THE KEWEENAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSER
TO THE DEEPER DRY AIR JUST TO THE N. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING LLVL
DRY AIR...FAVOR THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL FCST. THIS MODEL SHOWS
THE HIER QPF REMAINING CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER WHERE EVEN THE 00Z
NAM SHOWS MORE PERSISTENT AXIS OF SHARPER H85-7 FGEN/UVV AND WHERE
PWAT IS FCST TO INCRS TO AOA 1 INCH /ABOUT 225 PCT OF NORMAL/. THIS
FCST IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION OF AXIS OF HEAVIER RA FM
NCENTRAL MN INTO NCENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MRNG...THE LOCATION OF WHICH
MAY HINT AT A BNDRY WHICH MAY ACT TO INTERCEPT MSTR INFLOW. WITH THE
CLDS AND RA DVLPG...EXPECT WELL BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS THAT WL LIKELY
STAY UNDER 40 AT SOME PLACES NEAR LK SUP.

TNGT...WITH SLOW APRCH OF SHRTWV FM THE WSW TNGT...UPR DVGC OVER AND
MSTR TRANSPORT INTO ARE FCST TO INCRS OVERNGT. SO EXPECT HEAVIER RA
TO EXPAND TO THE NE. THE CNDN MODEL STILL SEEMS TO BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK SHOWING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PCPN DIMINISHING A BIT WITH THE
SHIFT TO THE NE GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY AIR IN THAT DIRECTION THAT WILL
TEND TO SHARPEN THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN/HEAVIER RA. TOTAL RA THRU
12Z MON WL REACH AS MUCH AS 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES NEAR THE WI BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COMBINES WITH
SHARP H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SUPPORT MODERATE PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY MORNING. SINCE STRONGEST H85 TEMP GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENSIS REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN...PERFER
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT DIMINISH QPF AS IT LIFTS OVER NORTHERN TIER
OF CWA IN THE MORNING. GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL FIT INTO THAT CATEGORY.
QUITE A COOL AND DAMP DAY ON MON NO MATTER THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN.
EXPECT CHILLY READINGS IN THE MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND
ONLY AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTN. JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN TSRA POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO SCNTRL CWA
LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING. DID KEEP MENTION OF TSRA OUT
ATTM AS WITH SFC LOW PASSING BY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN...WOULD EXPECT
BEST CHANCES FOR EVEN ELEVATED TSRA OVER EASTERN WI AND ON FARTHER
SOUTH. ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN TO MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IN THE AFTN. COOLER AIR
WORKS ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN MON EVENING AS THE LOW OVER WI SLIDES
EAST. 1000-500MB/850-700MB THICKNESSES AND NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING WITH RAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW AND NCNTRL MON EVENING THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR TIMES OUT
WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION...SNOW AMOUNTS MON NIGHT SHOULD STAY
LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

AFTER THE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW MOVES OUT LATE MON NIGHT...LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER HUDSON BAY AND PERSISTS. DRY EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
UPPER MICHIGAN DRY. WITH THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OFF THE HIGH
COOLEST READINGS DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD BE NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TEMPS THERE LIKELY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. INLAND TEMPS AND NEAR LK MICHIGAN SHOULD REACH TOWARD NORMAL
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH READINGS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. INFLUENCE OF THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS AT
NIGHT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNDER
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES...CIGS WILL
STEADILY LOWER...REACHING IFR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FURTHER TO LIFR/VLIFR DURING THE
MORNING HRS AND WILL CONTINUE THAT WAY THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HI PRES BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND A LO PRES MOVING E FROM THE PLAINS ALONG A STALLED LO
PRES TROUGH TO THE S...EXPECT NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KTS
THRU MON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WHERE
GALES TO 35-40 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON WITH A
COASTLINE CONFIGURATION THAT WILL ACCENTUATE THE NE FLOW. EXPANDED
THE GALE WARNING FOR LSZ162 TO INCLUDE LSZ263 FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT THRU TUE AS A HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER LAKES. N TO E WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ON WED AND THU WITH A HI PRES RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC



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