Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
419 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

The main weather impact through the short-term forecast will be the
very warm and humid weather expected across the area today.

Broad ridging in place across the area will keep conditions dry
through much of the short-term forecast; however, the far western
portions of the U.P. may see some scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon through the overnight hours.
Otherwise, temperatures just above the surface are progged to be
around 23C across much of the area, which would allow temperatures
to warm into the mid to upper 80s today. Wouldn`t be out of the
question to see a couple 90 degree readings in the favored south
wind downslope locations. The hot temperatures combined with
dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s will produce heat index
values as high as the low 90s. The main exception will be downwind
of Lake Michigan, where highs may stay closer to the mid to upper
70s. Tonight, as disturbances slide around the western part of the
ridge and the east side of the upper-level trough, digging into the
Plains, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to brush into the
far western portions of the U.P. and especially over far western
Lake Superior. This potential will be enhanced along a trough/weak
front, which is expected be very near the Arrowhead of MN an through
much of far western Lake Superior. Otherwise, much of the rest of
the U.P. will likely remain dry with continued unseasonbly warm
temperatures across the area. Overnight lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017

Nam shows a deep 500 mb trough over the Rockies and a strong 500 mb
ridge over the ern U.S. 00z Sun. Upper air pattern changes very
little through 00z Tue with the ridge slowly moving east to New
England by 00z Tue. What this will mean is warm and humid conditions
will continue with summer like weather. Pops will remain mostly to
the north and west of the cwa with area in the warm sector for this
forecast period and some record highs are possible for this forecast

In the extended, GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Rockies
and northern plains 12z Tue with a ridge over the ern U.S. 12z Tue.
This trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed and this trough
remains into 12z Thu. Starting on Wed, a cold front moves through
and brings an end to the summer like temperatures with cooler air
moving into the area. Temperatures will go from above normal on Tue
to below normal for Wed through Fri.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 134 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. May see some fog near
or at KCMX and KSAW, but not expected at this time. LLWS will be a
factor at all sites through the night, except possibly IWD where
winds have been steadily gusting to around 30 konts.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 419 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

Low to mid 60s dewpoints sliding across Lake Superior are expected
to linger into early next week bringing patchy to areas of fog for
several days across the lake. Some of the fog could be locally dense
at times. Expect winds to generally be below 20 knots through the
early part of next week under a weak pressure gradient.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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