Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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155
FXUS63 KMQT 190531
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NW ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH THE LOW CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR CYQT. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH NRN LAKE SUPERIOR
FROM LOW PRES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/PCPN
MOVING EDGING TOWARD THE AREA...RADARS INDICATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SCT/NMRS -SHSN/SHRA FROM NE MN INTO NW WI. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE HAD ALSO DEVELOPED INTO UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS OF NW UPPER
MI.

TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE MID LEVEL LOW AND CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -8C
TO -11C RANGE WILL SUPPORT SCT/NMRS -SHRA/-SHSN INTO MAINLY THE WEST
HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MOST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONV
WILL SHIFT TO LOCATIONS OVER THE W FAVORED BY NRLY FLOW AND INTO N
CNTRL UPPER MI LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
SUGGEST ANY PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

TUE...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY ACYC
LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...THE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END OVER MOST OF
THE CWA BY 18Z. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PCPN LINGERING OVER THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO ONLY SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH AND WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

A GENERALLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA LARGELY BEING BETWEEN AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE BRUSHED BY A FEW
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN CWA QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE (WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY AROUND 0.25IN)...WHICH
GIVES VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH OUR
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HASN/T STARTED...WOULD EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
FROST (AND A HARD FREEZE FOR THE INTERIOR WEST) ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND PERSONS WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS WOULD BE WISE TO PREPARE
FOR A SOLID FROST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE ONLY SHOWED A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON
THURSDAY (50S) WHILE AREAS INLAND RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 60.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY (WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TOWARDS NORMAL) AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
INTO IOWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE CWA
TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MUCH OF THE FORCING (WARM FRONT
STALLS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN) AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
ALL SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SITES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TOWARD 12Z BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND MIXING MOVE
INTO CMX AND IWD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING TO
GET VFR AT SAW WHICH WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH THEN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

LOW PRES EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL BOOST NNW WINDS TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E HALF
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THE HIGH BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. WED THRROUGH
SAT...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



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