Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 210709
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
309 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the desert sw
and southern Rockies and troughing across the eastern U.S. and lower
Great Lakes. The upper level flow across the northern Rockies and
northern plains is zonal this morning. There is a shortwave over the
Canadian Rockies that will be the next weather maker for the area as
it heads east into the Canadian prairies tonight. Nam brings in some
deeper moisture along with 850-500 mb q-vector convergence tonight.
GFS and ECMWF show a same thing. Did not make too many changes to
the going forecast overall except did go dry for today for all the
U.P. and removed the pops that were in the west late in the
afternoon. Pops will rapidly increase tonight and have likely pops
across the central late tonight before they pull to the east late
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

Much more of the same is expected through the upcoming week, with
below normal temperatures and periodic chances for showers and
possibly some storms. North Pacific troughing combined with North
Atlantic ridging will keep a somewhat stagnant flow of western North
American ridging and eastern North American troughing into next
week. Signs are pointing to this pattern finally starting to break
down late next week.

Wednesday night through Thursday: A mid-level low over the Gulf of
Alaska will quickly round the western ridge tonight before
elongating over the southern Canadian Prairies on Wednesday. A lead
trough axis will sweep eastward across Upper MI Wednesday night into
Thursday morning while weak troughing over the central Plains
induces a convective complex over Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
Guidance continues to indicate scattered to numerous showers tied to
this trough axis and associated surface front, with most locations
seeing about a six hour window of precip. A few stronger elevated
storms may even sneak into the far south-central late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with 1-6km shear of 60kts and MuCAPE
nearing 1000j/kg. The U.P. may end up falling between the two
regions of best forcing, so am inclined to hold on to just low-end
likely PoPs.

The front will lay out across central WI on Thursday, providing an
impetus for more convection there later in the day. Some of this
convection may brush the south-central and far SE in the evening,
but much of the CWA should remain dry after the earlier precip
clears.

Friday through Tuesday: The aforementioned mid-level low will
reinforce deep troughing drifting southward from Hudson Bay. A
series of shortwave troughs wrapping around the longwave trough will
bring periods of scattered showers during this time, with diurnal
enhancement in the afternoons and evenings. With that said, the
focus for the best chances will be late Saturday afternoon into
Sunday morning in response to a stronger trough axis.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. High
pressure will build into the region mostly clear skies. Some sct or
bkn VFR cig diurnal cu will develop Wednesday afternoon at SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 309 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

Expect winds to remain 20 kts or less through the forecast period.
There could be some patchy fog that forms late tonight across the
waters as rain moves through and this fog would burn off on Thu.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07


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