Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 131738
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE BENEATH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT IS CENTERED
OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS BROUGHT A WEAK TROUGH INTO
THE ERN CWA BETWEEN A 1031MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
1027MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC...WITH RIDGING QUICKLY FILLING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH.

SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI AS
THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE W. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING OF PRECIP
FROM W TO E THIS MORNING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BY NOON TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
DEVELOPING OVER LAND THIS DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING NRN
MN BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NW OF THE CWA...850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND 0C
OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE SW FLOW OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND
TRAJECTORIES ARE FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING PRECIP JUST E OF THE CWA SO
DID NOT INCLUDE POPS. MAY AGAIN SEE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
OVER THE INTERIOR W AND ALSO THE INTERIOR E TONIGHT...WITH FROST
BEING POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

DURING THE LONG TERM...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA. RESULTING NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A GENERALLY QUIET/COOL PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL ON MOST IF NOT ALL DAYS.
MODELS SHOW PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. NOT MUCH PCPN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND
WHAT DOES OCCUR WL BE TIED TO 2 COLD FROPAS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARMING IS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW...ANOTHER SHOT AT PCPN IS POSSIBLE FRI.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING FASTER WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS STILL
INDICATE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE AREA ALONG AND N OF THE PROJECTED VORT TRACK. CONSENSUS OF
MODELS INDICATE SCT SHRA WILL SPREAD INTO ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER
MODEL TREND PCPN CHCS WILL BE ENDING QUICKER W TO E SUN NIGHT.

MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL COUNITES SHRA ON
MONDAY AS THERMAL TROF LINGERS OVERHEAD AND NAM BUFR SNDGS SHOW
SFC-750 MB LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 8C.

TUE-WED...GFS/UKMET/NAM/GEM-NH SOLNS ARE STILL MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NRN ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH HELPS DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH UPPER MI
LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE DELAYS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE THRU NRN ONTARIO UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHICH IN TURN
DRIVES COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. DESPITE
FRONTAL TIMING DIFFERENCES MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG FRONT STAYING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SO FORTUNATELY
PCPN CHCS ARE VERY LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHCS MENTIONED FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUE AND THEN COOL
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON WED.

LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. MODELS UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING OF NRN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH OF ASSOC DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN FOR LATE WEEK
IN DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME. GFS SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND ECMWF STILL MAINTAINS STRONG RDGG AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
FRI. GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF GFS AND DRY LOOK OF ECMWF HAVE TRIMMED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR MOST OF THE CWA. KEPT IN CHC POPS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME
AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UNDER RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR
CONCERNS. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE POPPED UP IN THE KSAW
VCNTY SHOULD LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. ON SUN...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF SHOULD BRING SCT -SHRA INTO NW UPPER MI BY
AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT KCMX...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
CONDITION TO FALL BLO VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

WINDS MAINLY BLO 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS WEAK. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. NO GALES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...TITUS






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