Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 291742
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1242 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated a broad mid/upper level trough
over the Plains with a low centered over the eastern Dakotas. At the
surface, a 983 mb low was located over se ND with an occluded front
extending e through central MN into Upper Mi. Q-vector convergence
and strong moisture advection ahead of a shortwave supported a large
area of rain mainly over central and eastern Upper Mi early this
morning. This area of showers in past hour shrunk in size and is now
confined to the east half of Upper Mi as drier air and q-vector
divergence has moved in in the wake of the shortwave and passage of
occluded front.

Today, with the occluded front continuing to lift north of the area
and q-vector divergence and subsidence taking over, expect mainly
dry weather. Although some weak diurnal instability may allow for
some wrap-around light rain/snow showers to develop over the western
interior. Otherwise, expect breezy southwest winds with temps slowly
falling into the upper 30s west. However, some breaks of sunshine
over the east half will help boost readings into the upper 40s.

Tonight, Dry slot of mid-upper low moving across the area should
ensure dry conditions across much of the forecast area under partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Min temps will range from the low 30s over
interior west to the mid to upper 30s near the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

Wednesday into Wednesday night: The next shot of energy is progged
to slide near the eastern U.P. early Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening. The added deep moisture along with increased
forcing, will allow for another chance of showers moving through
mainly the easter half of the U.P. Additionally, the occluded low
will begin to slide across the western U.P. by Wednesday afternoon
and directly over the U.P. Wednesday night, which will begin to
introduce precip chances over the far west in the eveing and the
rest of the U.P again overnight. By that time, cooler air will begin
to move in aloft which may allow some snow to mix in with the rain
at times over the far west late Wednesday afternoon and especially
Wednesday night.

Thursday through the Saturday: The closed low will slowly meander
east of the U.P Thursday through Friday morning before sliding out
of the area by Saturday morning and into the weekend. As this
happens, colder air will continue to filter into the region, at the
surface and aloft, allowing the rain to transition to snow.
Currently it looks like the north to northwest wind favored
snowbelts would be most likely to see the best chances for
precipitation. It does look like temperatures overall will trend
colder during this time period and 850mb temperatures are progged to
cool to the -5C to -8C range for the Thursday through Saturday
morning time period. The temps aloft may cool even more Friday night
into Saturday as a shortwave is progged to slide across the U.P.
This may act to increase the snowfall potential for the area once
again. Snow will be the primary precip type through this time period
during the overnight hours, but a mix of rain is possible along the
shoreline and east during the day.

The rest of the extended: Model solutions begin to take on large
difference, which is not atypical for looking that far out. The EC
brings a fairly strong system up across lower MI, which could have
the potential to bring stronger winds a heavy snow to portions of
the Upper Great Lakes; however, the GFS has no hint of this at all
and actually has high pressure building across the same area. With
all of the major differences will stick with a model consensus for
this time period.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

Low level moisture wrapping into Upper Michigan from the sw will
maintain mainly MVFR cigs through most of the forecast period.
Troughing developing into the area on Wednesday will support
development of lower MVFR to IFR cigs at SAW. With only light pcpn
forecast, no vsby restrictions are expected.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 459 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

Southeast gales in the tight pres gradient ahead of the deep ND low
will gradually shift off to the northeast this morning. The low
pressure system will linger over the Upper Midwest Tuesday into
Wednesday. However the pressure gradient is not expected to be as
tight and should allow winds to diminish below 25kt by Tuesday
afternoon. Northerly winds to around 25 knots may develop Thursday
as the slow moving low moves to the east of Lake Superior into
Quebec.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...Voss



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