Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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757
FXUS63 KMQT 180909
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
509 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LVL LOW ROTATING OVER
NRN MN WITH A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF LOW REACHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER MI. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW WHICH HAS DISSIPATED THE
DENSE FOG OVER LAKE MI AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN UPPER MI. DRY
SLOT HAS LEFT UPPER MI GENERALLY PCPN FREE OVER THE EARLY MORNING
HRS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOCUS TODAY WILL ON COLD SURGE WHICH WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE WEST MID-LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI AND AWAY
FROM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE
IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS). OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLIER...MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S/50F NEAR IRONWOOD TO LOWER 60S ALONG
A LINE FM MQT TO MENOMINEE. IN ADDITION...ALL OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SURGING IN A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
(FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD) WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AREAS. WITH THE COLD AIR AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST FIRST (ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS) AND THEN SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL AREAS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CAA ON BLUSTERY NW TO N WINDS WILL ALLOW 8H TEMPS
TO FALL TO -8 TO -10C OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI BY 12Z
TUE. 8H TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5C OVER THE EAST HALF OVERNIGHT.
BEST FORCING OUT AHEAD ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
MN/ONTARIO BORDER TONIGHT WILL STAY MAINLY NW OF UPPER MI KEEPING
MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN N OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN UPPER
MI AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE W AND N. WITH
COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AS NOTED BEFORE...THE -SHRA WILL MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO -SHSN TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION AND PCPN OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAN`T RULE
OUT A DUSTING TO LOCALLY A HALFINCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SFCS BY 12Z
TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

TUESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT ONLY SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/COLD FRONT SINKING ACROSS CENTRAL TO E UPPER MI. 850MB TEMPS
AT A CHILLY -10C OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA /2-5C WARMER OFF THE
17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS...AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL WRF/. THE NAM
IS THE COLDEST WITH THE ENTIRE W HALF AROUND -11C TUESDAY MORNING.
850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM AROUND -4C AT ERY TO AROUND -9C BY 18Z
TUESDAY ON NW WINDS. THIS WILL BE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER NE MN AT
12Z SLIDES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. YES...SNOW IS POSSIBLE STILL ON
TUESDAY...BUT MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST A DUSTING ON MAINLY GRASSY
SURFACES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL RH
DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 20-25KTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...STRONGEST ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. DESPITE LIGHT W FLOW RETURNING AT THE SFC TUESDAY NIGHT
AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 0C...LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE /COLDEST IN THE TRADITIONAL COOL SPOTS OF
THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI/.

EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY AS SFC TEMPS
REBOUND TO AROUND 60F. THIS WILL BE DESPITE THE 500MB TROUGH WITH
ITS NW FLOW LINGERING OVERHEAD...AS THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI. PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
0.25IN FROM OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
/ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR LAKE MI FROM LATE MORNING ON/.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AT NW
FLOW LINGERS AT 500MB. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THAT SINKS ACROSS UPPER MI
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LOWER MI DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPORARY ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO WRAP UP THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO SHIFT TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 18Z SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS EXITING HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
RETURN...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

RAIN IS PRETTY MUCH DONE UNTIL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH SOME
SHOWERS LATER MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT IWD AND CMX. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KIWD AND KCMX AS
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THE LOW COMES IN. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
WON`T REACH SAW UNTIL LATE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT TRANSITION
FROM VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THERE LATER IN THE DAY. SAW
WILL ALSO SEE A LAKE BREEZE MON AFTERNOON THAT WILL SWITCH THEIR WIND
TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

LOW PRES OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL VEER FM SW THIS
MORNING TO NNW LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT AND TUE...STRONGEST OVER THE EAST HALF. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E TUE
AFTN/NIGHT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST. WED THRU
FRI...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. LINGERING WARM MOIST AIR WILL ALLOW
FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE TODAY...POSSIBLE LOCALLY DENSE OVER
THE EAST HALF THIS MORNING. ALL FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING
AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS



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