Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 151736
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. DPVA AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
WAS SUPPORTING A MASS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCT SHRA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF MN AND CENTRAL WI. THE NRN EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
WAS REACHING INTO THE SCNTRL PORTION OF UPPER MI WHILE THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY CLOUD FREE EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK Q-VECT CONV ASSOC WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD AND ON NRN EDGE OF FORCING FROM DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE PASSING
SOUTH. SBCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG ALONG WITH SFC-7H LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C
OR HIGHER WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA WILL BE
CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED. WL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THESE
COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 50 PCT OF NORMAL SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF
FROST AS MIN TEMPS DIP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WI BORDER. HAVE INCLUDED GOGEBIC...ONTONAGON...IRON...BARAGA...SRN
HOUGHTON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TUE AND WED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THU...WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NCENTRAL CONUS LATE FRI
AND SAT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR A DRY AND SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS
EVEN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN QUEBEC ON TUE...DROPPING
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE NNE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. MOST MODELS
SHOWING QPF ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISAGREED ON. WILL INCREASE
POPS GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING. WED LOOKS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TUE...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLIER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 50 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 60 OVER THE SCENTRAL. ECMWF AND GEM
SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A
1025MB SFC HIGH CENTER OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. MAY SEE FROST OVER
INTERIOR ERN UPPER MI WED NIGHT...BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES. WILL KEEP A COLD FORECAST WITH FROST
GIVEN PREFERENCE FOR DRIER SOLUTIONS.

THU LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. INITIALLY...PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE PRECIP WILL BE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM BEEFY SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BETWEEN THE IMPENDING SFC TROUGH AND DEPARTING SFC HIGH. FORCING
THEM TRANSITIONS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE UPPER/SFC TROUGHS
ON SAT...BUT WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW UP TO 700J/KG OF CAPE ON SAT...BUT THAT
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND OTHER FACTORS. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CAPE GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF HOT SFC TEMPS AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 16C AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LAKE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL NEED CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SEVERE THREAT AS THE EVEN
APPROACHES.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUN AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT CMX THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. WSW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST UP
TO 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CROSSES REGION. NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
     /8 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS







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