Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160650
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
250 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

After seeing 40-50mph wind gusts along the Lake Superior shore from
roughly Marquette to the east this morning and early afternoon,
along with waves up to 16 ft and coastal erosion and lakeshore
flooding, conditions are subsiding and will continue to do so this
evening.

A shortwave will move through tonight, which should only act to
enhance any lingering showers over NE Upper MI and perhaps lead to
some isolated to scattered showers over the Keweenaw.

Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 50s for Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

Overall, not much has changed for later this week into early next
week. We are looking for above normal temperatures with the next
best chance for precipitation holding off until the weekend.

Tuesday through Friday, the upper-level pattern will remain
progressive through the week with transient upper-level ridging
builds across the Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday. This will
usher in warmer air, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the
mid to upper 60s, with a few 70s possible in areas that experience
downslope flows. By Wednesday night into Thursday, a sharp, quick
moving shortwave will clip the region to the north and will push a
weak cold front across Upper Michigan. No precipitation is expected,
only an increase in cloud cover. However, cold air advection on the
backside of this front will push temperatures briefly back down into
the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday. Into Friday, strong warm
air advection out of the Plains and up into central Canada will
allow strong upper-level ridging to develop across the region. This
will bring in another bout of unseasonably warm temperatures.

This weekend into early next week, longwave troughing will track
across the central CONUS and increase cloud cover across the region,
along with precipitation chances. The main area of low pressure
associated with this upper-level energy will remain well north of
the CONUS up in Canada; however, the trailing cold front will move
across Upper Michigan. With model-to-model and run-to-run
variability still present, confidence remains low in regards to the
timing of precipitation. Temperature wise, ahead of the cold front
on Saturday expect the unseasonably warm temperatures to continue.
Immediately behind the front, cold air advection is not terribly
impressive, so do not expect a dramatic cool down for Sunday or
Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
Winds will become gusty at times this aftn, especially at KCMX where
gusts to 20-25kt will occur. LLWS will then develop at all
terminals tonight.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

As the system exits the region, winds will continue to diminish to
around 15 knots tonight; however, expect the winds to ramp back up
to 20 to 30 knots Monday into Tuesday morning. No gales seen after
that as winds look to remain in the 15 to 25 knot range mostly.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Ritzman
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Titus


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