Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280739
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A 1025MB SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL STICK
AROUND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY...WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE
30S TO AROUND 40.

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS KEEP ALMOST ALL PRECIP W OF UPPER MI PRIOR TO
12Z SUN. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. HAD TO USE A NON-CONTEMPORARY WIND GUST PROCEDURE AS
925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50KTS SAT NIGHT. WENT WITH SW WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH...GREATEST OVER THE FAR W...IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW TEMPS TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NAM SHOWS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE LATE SAT NIGHT AND BOTH MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. ON SUN. GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY
AS LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OF
0.20 TO 0.33 INCH LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH COLD AIR REMAINING THERE
THE LONGEST. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE MORNING MOST EVERYWHERE
AND THESE MOVE EAST SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES EITHER AS THESE LOOKED GOOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FOR 12Z WED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN FOR 12Z THU INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER
PATTERN THEN CHANGES WITH ECMWF KEEPING MORE ENERGY AND TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS DIGS TROUGHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FOR 12Z FRI. LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SFC FRONTS
IN THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND
THU. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME POPS IN FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH VERY FEW DRY PERIODS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PCPN WILL BE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH DRY HI PRES DOMINATING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
THRU THIS AFTN. THERE WL BE INCRSG HI CLDS THIS EVNG. BUT THE LLVLS
WL REMAIN DRY DESPITE AN INCRSG S WIND BTWN THE DEPARTING HI TO THE
E AND THE NEXT LO PRES MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...SO VFR WX WL
PERSIST. LLWS WL DVLP AT THE SITES THIS EVNG WITH THE STRENGHTENING
S WIND ABOVE A NEAR SFC STABLE LYR CAUSED BY SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST
GALES POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SUN...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST
HALF. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH. SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS
CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS


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