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000
FXUS63 KMQT 222035
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
435 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Models continued very poor performance today, especially with
showing an area of light rain and drizzle that has moved from
western Lake Superior into the western Upper Peninsula. It appears
the cause of that precip is low level FGEN and upslope flow that
will shift east into the central U.P. this evening and tonight. As
it does so, precip should become confined to northeastern Marquette
County. For Friday, skies will generally clear, except along the WI
border where partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 433 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

An amplified pattern will prevail with a prominent mid/upper level
ridge from the se CONUS through central Canada by this weekend and a
trough moving from the Rockies through the nrn plains. Although the
models were in agreement with the development of a cutoff low by
there were large differences and run to run variations with the
evolution and position of the low. So, uncertainty is higher than
usual for this time frame with low forecast confidence.

Friday night and Saturday, the models still suggest that a band of
700-500 mb fgen will develop in response to the amplifying ridge to
the west and upper level div with the right entrance of the 250-300
mb jet to the northeast. However, the models are weaker with this
feature and produce lower pcpn coverage/amounts. As a result, only
slight chance pops were mentioned for the west half late Fri night
through Saturday morning.

Sunday and Sunday night, there is higher confidence that a band of
showers to slowly progress from west to east through much of the cwa
Sunday and to the east Sun night as the mid level trough moves from
the nrn plains toward the upper MS valley. There is still some
uncertainty with the timing as the ECMWF is faster than the GFS and
especially the GEM. With strong moisture transport and PWAT values
climbing above 1.5 inches, some moderate to heavy rain will be
possible.

Monday through Thursday, the ECMWF has trended toward a more
progressive nrn stream scenario while the GFS and most GFS ensemble
members bring a cutoff low from the Upper MS valley to the central
Great Lakes. Either solution would still keep unsettled weather over
the nrn Lakes with chances for light showers, with the lower heights
through the region.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 145 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Conditions will gradually improve at all sites today, but should
drop back down tonight into early tomorrow as moisture gets trapped
below a developing inversion.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

NE flow over Lake Superior with SFC trough over the Lower Midwest
and SFC ridge building in from Canada will support some higher wind
gusts of 20-25 knots mainly over the western half of the lake into
Fri evening. As the Canadian high builds more over the Upper Lakes,
winds will dip below 20 kts Friday night into Saturday night.
Southerly winds will increase late Sunday into Mon to 25 to 30 knots
over mainly the north central and eastern part of the lake as a low
pressure trough approaches from the west.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Titus