Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 011121
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS HIGH PRES AND A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE THAT WAS
OVER SRN MANITOBA 24HRS AGO NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN ONTARIO.
ASSOCIATED CI AND SOME AC HAVE MOSTLY PUSHED E OF THE FCST AREA AS
OF 08Z. UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
MOSTLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. OVER THE W WHERE SKIES CLEARED
EARLIEST...A FEW OF THE TRADIATIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE
20S. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...THE BARAGA
PLAINS RAWS SITE IS THE COLDEST...CURRENTLY AT 22F.

EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HINTS OF SCT THIN CI
STREAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTN HRS. UNDER LARGE SCALE SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS...LAKE BREEZES WILL RULE THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
CENTER REDEVELOPS INTO ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ANOTHER CENTER
PROBABLY FORMING OVER FAR NRN LAKE MI AS WELL. SO...THE TYPICAL
COOLER NEAR THE LAKES WILL BE IN ORDER TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS
IT HAS BEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN RECENT DAYS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.
MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE 50S TODAY. BASED ON
NAM/GFS FCST MIXING HEIGHTS WITH SUPPORT FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMP
GUIDANCE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION.

TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF THIS STRING WITH FROST CONCERNS. A
DRY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH...SIMILAR TO THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO GET UNDERWAY...SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT MIN
TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THAT AREA WITH SOME FROST LIKELY.
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL...S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STIR ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS HIGHER TO AVOID FROST. IN FACT...DOWNSLOPE AREAS SHOULD ONLY
FALL TO THE LOW/MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AFFECTING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START AND END OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD (SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK).

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO DEPART THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOWER 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS)...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SHOULD
BE A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTS...THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH
SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT AREA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL TRY TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NOSE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
PUSHES INTO THAT AREA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(MUCAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BELOW 6.5 C/KM...SO THINK THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LOW. THOSE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN PRECIP
COVERAGE/LOCATION/AMOUNTS AFTER THAT AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT PVA
AREAS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AND LITTLE TO NO THERMAL ADVECTION. THE
ONLY REAL FORCING WILL COME FROM THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THINK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW (ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER). THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO A LITTLE ABOVE ONE INCH...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS THERE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND SLIDING THE RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS/CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA (NEAR NORMAL HIGHS)...WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW LIMITING THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES WITH THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZES OFF BOTH LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT AS
EXCITED ABOUT THAT IDEA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
UPPER MI...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS (UNDER 10KT) AND VFR CONDITIONS
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY UNDER 15KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING OF LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION ENHANCE THE WINDS THIS AFTN SO THAT GUSTS REACH THE 20
TO 25KT RANGE LOCALLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BLO 15KT TONIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY DRIFTS E. HEADING THRU THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...PRES GRADIENT WILL NOT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRES TROF. AS A RESULT...
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20KT TUE AFTN THRU EARLY THU. IF
THERE ARE STRONGER WINDS GUSTING OVER 20KT...THEY SHOULD OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE BTWN THE KEWEENAW AND CARIBOU
ISLAND. PASSAGE OF A LOW PRES TROF THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES
BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE
WINDS LATER THU INTO FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
     004>006-009>011-013-084.

  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
     003-007-012-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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