Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 060841
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
441 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MANITOBA WITH TROF AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO SRN ALBERTA.
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION OVER NRN MN IN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SFC HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING
WEATHER DRY. HIGH TEMPS REACHED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE TEMPS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MODERATION OFF THE LAKE.

TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET...AXIS OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS E TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MON...SHRA/TSRA WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD E TOWARD THE AREA. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BRINGING PCPN CHC ONLY INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT MINS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S W AND UPPER 50S/LWR 60S E.

MONDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THREAT OF ANY STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING FRONTAL
TIMING WILL BE LIFTING FROM ND MON MORNING THROUGH NRN MN AND NRN
ONTARIO MON AFTERNOON INTO NRN ONTARIO MON NIGHT. AT SAME TIME...A
SFC LOW/WAVE WILL BE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FM MN INTO NW
WI AND WRN UPPER MI AND CENTRAL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME TSRA ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS
UP TO 70M AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 250-300 MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK EXITING BASE OF TROUGH AND LIFTING INTO
NRN ONTARIO. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL ON TARGET...SLIDING FM WEST TO
EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IS IMPRESSIVE
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C AND STRONG 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS PUSHING OVER 2
INCHES. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS NEAR 14KT LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO WARM RAIN PROCESSES. SWIFT
STORM MOTIONS OVER 40 KTS WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN.

MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FRONT AND PCPN
BUT THE BIGGER DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON /18Z AND 21Z/. 12Z
NAM REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH SFC CAPES NEARING 2000J/KG FOR SCNTRL BY
21Z WHILE GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL/SREF SHOW CLOSER TO 500J/KG. NAM
FCST SFC DWPNTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF FRONT LOOK WAY
OVERDONE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVED DEWPOINTS AND ARE PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATED CAPE VALUES. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MAYBE APPROACHING 70F
FAR SCNTRL.

MODELS STILL SHOW STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS THEY
SHOULD HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA THAT FORM...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS WOULD EASILY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL
CONSENSUS FCST. JUST NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THAT WILL
HAPPEN...AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF WINDS
THROUGH SOUNDING PROFILE...CAN`T ARGUE TOO MUCH WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK OF KEEPING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS TO
SFC WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM HEAVY PCPN LOADING WITH
STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER ACTIVE WEATHER CONCLUDES TONIGHT...MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS WEEK. COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING IS FOLLOWED BY LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ALL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF CWA TO START
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN HIGHER
SWIM RISK FOR LK SUPERIOR BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY ON TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS NCNTRL AND EAST AND SOME LINGERING FOG ALONG
LK SUPERIOR SHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES BY AFTN. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD STAY IN THE
LOW-MID 50S. EVEN INLAND TOWARD WI BORDER...MAX TEMPS SHOULD STAY
BLO 70 DEGREES. HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD ON TUE NIGHT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES WITH TEMPS IN THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST LIKELY DROPPING INTO UPR 30S. MOS
GUIDANCE ALREADY ON THIS WITH UPR 30S FORECASTED FOR KLNL...AND
AROUND 40 AT KIMT.

HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MAIN FRONT AND FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF CWA OVER SOUTH CNTRL CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THUS SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WEAK LAKE
BREEZES EACH DAY /THOUGH THURSDAY MAY HAVE ENOUGH SW GRADIENT FLOW
TO PROHIBIT TOO MUCH OF ONE/...BUT WITH LK SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPS WARMING NOW INTO THE LOW-MID 50S PER MTU BUOY DATA...BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE THEIR PUNCH. ALONG LK MICHIGAN...WATER TEMPS
ARE EVEN WARMER WITH LOW-MID 60S IN THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND MID-UPR
50S OFFSHORE OF GARDEN PENINSULA AND MANISTIQUE. JUST INLAND FROM
ANY LOCALIZED LAKE BREEZE COOLING...TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
WED AND THU...WITH UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS H85 TEMPS
WARM TO LOWER TEENS C.

NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AS WARM FRONT AND EVENTUALLY SFC LOW
LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS TIME WITH INCREASE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. CONSENSUS POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC LOW
ARRIVES. MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. IF SYSTEM SLOWS OR THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN SHRA/TSRA
IT COULD GET WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES DUE TO OVERALL
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA AT IWD OVERNIGHT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES CMX WITH MAINLY LEFTOVER LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR...AT
BOTH KIWD AND KCMX BY LATE MORNING IN SHRA AND THEN TO DROP TO IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. SAW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IFR LATE AS THE RAIN INCREASES. AS RAIN DIMINISHES AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NNW FLOW...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY LATE EVENING. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TS COVERAGE...THUNDER WAS NOT INCLUDED IN FCST.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING WINDS ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO
LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. S TO SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20KT LATE IN THE AFTN OVER THE E HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
W...NE WINDS MAY HOLD THRU TONIGHT. WHILE STABILITY OVER THE WATER
WILL LIMIT WINDS CLOSER TO THE WATER SFC...GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL
OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT/MON...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING GALE FORCE. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MON AND MON EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NW AT 15-25KT. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT FOR JULY...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 30KT
AND PERHAPS EVEN GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF TIME IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY IN
THE AREA FROM THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW ESE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE
NIGHT THRU THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

AS FOR FOG...INCREASING SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE FOG OR
AT LEAST THICKER FOG TO THE N PORTION OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. ARRIVAL
OF MORE SHRA/TSTMS TONIGHT/MON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANSION OF
FOG. FOG WILL THEN BE SCOURED OFF THE LAKE FROM NW TO SE MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



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