Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 262135
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
435 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
NAMERICA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO SW CANADA AND A
TROF OVER THE E. RESULTING NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS CARRYING
SEVERAL MINOR DISTURBANCES TO THE SE...AND THIS HAS LED TO BKN PCPN
EXTENDING FROM IL/IN NNW INTO NRN ONTARIO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE DIMINISHING AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS
NOW SSE OF UPPER MI AND A SECOND AREA DROPPING SSE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS...AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
RADAR NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOWS A DECENT AREA OF ASSOCIATED SNOW
APPROACHING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE SE...AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MI AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER SE WINDS
LED TO SOME SNOW SPREADING OFF LAKE MI INTO DELTA AND ALGER COUNTIES
TODAY. ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE THINNED JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ON NRN LAKE MI NOW.

SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE NW WILL DIVE SE ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE ENHANCED CLOUDS JUST NNW OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPICTED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR IMAGERY NEAR THUNDER BAY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF STEADIER
-SN TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
ERN EDGE OF THE FORCING WILL BE UP AGAINST A STEADY FEED OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR EMANATING FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS IS CERTAINLY EVIDENT IN NAM/GFS/RUC13 FCST SOUNDINGS
WHICH MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE IN ROUGHLY THE 2-5KFT LAYER...AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW PCPN STAYING W OF ROUGHLY A KISQ/SHINGLETON LINE
WITH ONLY THE GEM GETTING PCPN CLOSE TO KERY. THUS...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY SNOW IN THE FCST OVER THE FAR E TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THE
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE WOULD BE FOR A COUPLE OF THE LES BANDS OFF NRN
LAKE HURON TO STREAK WNW INTO LUCE COUNTY FOR A TIME TONIGHT. BACK
TO THE W...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW PCPN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.03 TO 0.1 INCH
RANGE TONIGHT...FALLING ALMOST ENTIRELY BEFORE 06Z. WITH SLR
PROBABLY AROUND 17 TO 1...THIS SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES. WITH LOW-LEVEL SE WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPING/MOISTENING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR ROUGHLY IN THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM IRON RIVER TO
NEGAUNEE TO ESCANABA. AS FOR TEMPS...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS OVER THE
FAR E WHERE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR TEMPS
TO PLUMMET UNDER LIGHT/CALM WIND. FOR NOW...INDICATED MINS NEAR
ZERO IN THAT AREA.

QUIET DAY ON THE WAY FOR TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER UPPER MI.
WHILE THE E WILL PROBABLY ENJOY A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE W AND CNTRL. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LWR 20S E TO THE UPPER 20S W.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH THE 500MB LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE 500MB TROUGH SHIFTED OVER THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W HALF OF
THE NATION WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY /EXTENDING FROM MN UP THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND/...WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRY PERIOD AT LEAST UNTIL MID DAY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING/STUCK BELOW THE 850-900MB
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TRICKY CLOUD COVER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE LAST WARM DAY IN A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. 850MB TEMPS ON S FLOW WILL RISE TO -1 TO
-4C THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THICKER CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE NW.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL EDGE E ACROSS IL AND IN THURSDAY
MORNING...AND OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE 500MB RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2-5IN OF SNOW WITH SLR VALUES AROUND 15:1. EXPECT
THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE N HALF OF UPPER MI AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR SNOW TO BEGIN S CENTRAL. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS QUICK WITH THE INVADING PRECIP AS THE 00Z NAM...BUT
A BLENDED SOLUTION SOUNDS REASONABLE. A WINTER WX ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IF THE 2-5IN CAN FALL IN A 12HR PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
INTO THIS FOR POSSIBLE POSTING OF HEADLINES ON TUESDAY...AND
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO.

N FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SFC TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
START OF OUR COOL DOWN...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C.
WHILE NOT QUITE OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT YET...SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE UPSLOPE N SNOWBELTS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/PENNSYLVANIA
FRIDAY EVENING.

DESPITE SFC-500MB RIDGING ON FRIDAY...A FEW LINGERING LES WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINES. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MOISTURE IS AGAIN TRAPPED BELOW 850MB.
BUT WILL THE MOISTURE LAYER IN THE DGZ /850MB TEMPS OF -15 TO
-17C/...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL PUSH IN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND IN ADVANCE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEARING FROM THE N PLAINS STATES.

SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING
ISSUES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 6HRS...WHICH IS PRETTY MINOR THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FCST...AND A BLENDED SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. 850MB
TEMPS OF -20 TO -30C WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOOK FOR FINE LES THAT WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VIS...ESPECIALLY IF
THE STRONGER NW WINDS OF THE 25/12Z ECMWF ARE CORRECT/.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF STEADIER SNOW THAT AFFECTED KIWD THIS MORNING...
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING SSE WILL BRING A ROUND OF -SN TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. WHILE KIWD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AS THE -SN
PASSES...STEADIER SNOW AT KCMX/KSAW WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS
FROM VFR TO IFR. LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KIWD BY LATE EVENING. IFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU TUE MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER NE MN DROPPING SSE TONIGHT...STRONGER S
WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN LAKE SUEPRIOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE W...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT. WINDS WILL THEN BE UNDER 20KT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TUE/WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SSE FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRES WILL THEN TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WED NIGHT TO THE LOWER LAKES THU NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...N TO
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT THU/THU NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH
PRES PASSES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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